In the weeks since Elon Musk’s topsy-turvy takeover of Twitter, countless mainstream media outlets have devoted stories to the potential rise of rival platforms, like Mastodon and Hive Social.
So how are things going at these sites?
Well, Mastodon announced in mid-November that it surpassed 2 million monthly active users, a laughably small number relative to Twitter’s 238 million daily active users as of June. Hive Social finally eclipsed 1 million users last week, but its owners temporarily shut the site down this week after becoming “aware of security issues” affecting the platform and user data.
Twitter, meanwhile, has added another 13 million daily active users since June, according to data posted by Musk, with growth continuing even after his acquisition closed. (We’ll take Musk, not exactly known as a paragon of truth, at his word.)
The user totals cut against the popular narrative of Twitter in decline—and offer another chance to examine the phenomena that drive social media use.
Musk’s disorderly overhaul of Twitter operations and tolerance of right-wing wackadoodles has clearly struck a nerve in the left-leaning media, which (often fairly) derides the billionaire’s decision-making.
The dissonance can be best summarized by an article in The Atlantic last month, which claimed that “age of social media might end—and soon.” The author’s primary evidence: Facebook is in “decline” (even though it’s added 55 million net daily active users in the past year) and Twitter is in “chaos” (a take that looks more lukewarm with each passing day).
In turn, potential successors to Twitter have received outsized attention. Virtually every major publication has written some kind of feature about Mastodon (yes, Fortune included), while Hive Social, Post News, and Substack have garnered sporadic coverage as alternative outlets.
Yet prophecies of Twitter’s decline haven’t come anywhere close to fruition yet. A handful of high-profile celebrities and companies have abandoned the platform, but the vast majority of users still tweet away. The platform also appears to remain fully functional despite fears of an imminent collapse. (We’ll see if these trends hold, particularly as the impact of layoffs and corporate pullbacks in ad spending come into sharper focus.)
Twitter’s staying power once again proves that media users’ habits aren’t particularly driven by high-minded issues of politics, ethics, and corporate power. What happened when Cambridge Analytica harvested massive amounts of Facebook user data, Instagram profited off of teen angst, YouTube platformed disinformation purveyors, and Spotify stood by Joe Rogan? Their user bases kept growing.
Instead, consumers gravitate toward platforms that capture the cultural zeitgeist and become part of personal habits.
In recent years, all of the fastest-growing social media sites gained popularity based on a novel concept or by filling a well-timed market niche. TikTok exploded because of its superior video platform and recommendation algorithm. BeReal tapped into a yearning for authenticity in an over-filtered ecosystem. LinkedIn created a home for the business crowd. Reddit and Discord harnessed the power of communities.
None of these platforms emerged from the wreckage of another platform’s scandal or shame. They mostly grew organically with the times, meeting the moment in tech. (TikTok did spend untold millions of dollars on advertising to boost awareness of its app.)
Like it or not, Twitter remains a massively popular gathering place for news, punditry, entertainment, and other trending topics. Until its core function falls out of favor with users and a more culturally relevant alternative emerges, no amount of media coverage or anti-Twitter commentary will knock the platform from its perch.
Want to send thoughts or suggestions to Data Sheet? Drop me a line here.
Jacob Carpenter
