Martin Lewis says there is an 85% chance the Government won't increase the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) in April.
Speaking on the Today show on BBC Radio 4 show this morning, the MoneySavingExpert founder said that even though it wasn't a "done deal" there is more chance that energy bills will not go up in April now.
It comes after the BBC reported that some energy firms are preparing to amend bills with the expectation the Government will keep support at or near current levels.
Martin Lewis backed up this report after several actions from energy suppliers yesterday.
The deadline for telling prepayment meter and top-up providers about the change in energy rates was yesterday and "some" energy firms have kept their rates at the current level.
Martin said it "wasn't all firms" however it was a few.
He added: "So the point about it is that the firm's it is easier to keep it at £2500 rather than increase it to £3000 than to reverse it the other way round and have the back pay."
"Now I'm hearing they have not been told that the rate is staying, they have been told that there is an attempt to keep the rate at £2500."
The MoneySavingExpert recently wrote to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt urging him to push back the Energy Price Guarantee rise to July.
In his letter, he said the move would be a "national act of self harm" as the impact, not just on the nation's finances, but their mental health and being would be catastrophic.
Speaking today, he said: "So we're not at the smoking gun stage that this is definitely happening.
"But I would say we're at an 85% likelihood that the price won't be going up. It's got a maybe slightly nuanced difference."
He told the BBC that the call to push back the Guarantee rather than scrap it all together was "deliberately tactical" as there are currently two levels of pricing.
Martin explained: "You have the price cap, which is set by Ofgem and is based on wholesale prices, and that sets what energy retailers can charge.
"You then have the price guarantee, which is even if the price cap is too high, this is what you're paying and the Government pays the difference of the moment."
"All the predictions from July onwards, the price cap will be lower than the Government's price guarantee. So we will pay the price gap there won't be any more subsidies."
Ofgem announced its April 2023 price cap as £3,294 earlier this week, which is down from the current cap of £4,279 now.
The energy analysis group Cornwall Insight predicted recently that the Ofgem price cap would be £2,153 from July until September and then £2,161 onwards.
The reason for the drop is that the cost of wholesale gas for suppliers will have dropped significantly since its peak.
The Money Saving Expert noted even though the cost of wholesale gas will have dropped, energy customers will not feel the benefits for a long time.
He added: "There's a big time lag before we feel the benefit of wholesale rates going down because of the way the price cap system works, which is why my letter was about postponing it till July because after that point, frankly, the Energy Price Guarantee is unlikely to have any impact on us anyway.
