Martin Lewis ’ MoneySavingExpert website has updated its latest guidance on whether you should fix into an energy deal now.
It comes after experts predicted an even sharper rise to the energy price cap in October.
This price cap - which limits the rates a supplier can charge for each unit of gas and electricity you use - rose on April 1, 2022, from £1,277 to £1,971.
Cornwall Insight thinks this could rise by £1,388 to hit £3,359 in October.
It could then rise by another £257 to reach £3,616 in January 2023 - £1,645 more than it is now.
The price cap currently covers 22 million households.
At the moment, there are no open market fixed-rate energy tariffs that are cheaper than the current £1,971 price cap.
However, MoneySavingExpert has flagged some deals that are cheaper than the predicted £3,359 October price cap.
The consumer rights website explains that, on average, you’ll be paying 72% more over the next year than you do now, based on current predictions.
MSE suggests you should consider fixing into an energy deal if you're offered a one-year fix at no more than 70% above your current price cap tariff.
Those who “very strongly value budgeting certainty” might want to consider fixing at a slightly higher 75% above the price cap tariff.
Of course, prices could change and there is no way for certain to know how the price cap might fluctuate over the next year.
“This isn't an exact science – do watch my video explainer from a couple of months ago if you want to understand more,” said Martin.
“Fixing below this point is still not a slam dunk, I can't promise I've got this right, there are too many unknowns…
“This is my best-guess with the information I have at the moment.”
The cheapest rates are normally “customer-only” deals which aren’t available on the open market - this means you won’t find details of them online.
It is worth speaking to your energy provider to see what deals they have on offer right now - but keep in mind the best rates could be pulled quickly.
MSE flagged the E.on Next: Next Online v17 one-year fix - which is only available to existing customers - as being 67% more than the current price cap (£3,297 a year).
It said the cheapest open-market rate available right now is from Utility Warehouse - but you have to take out other products as well.
This means it might not be worth it for all households, and it is harder to work out if you’d be better off as you need to factor in these costs and savings too.
The Utility Warehouse "Green Fixed 33" one-year fix is on average 45% more than the price cap at £2,850 per year for typical use.
To get access to this fix, you will need to take out broadband, SIM-only mobile contract or boiler and home cover with Warehouse.
