LEXINGTON, Ky. — For the second straight summer, some element of the Kentucky fan base has worked itself into a bit of a tizzy over UK football recruiting.
Last year, the fear that gripped the land was that Kentucky had failed to embrace the recruiting possibilities provided from the arrival of name, image and likeness financial opportunities for players while archrivals Tennessee and Louisville were driving 150 mph down that road.
This summer, the issue is that the recruiting services are so far giving the efforts of Mark Stoops, Vince Marrow and Co. tepid reviews. Through Thursday morning, Kentucky’s 13 commitments so far for 2024 are ranked as the 41st-best class among FBS schools by On3.com, 46th by 247Sports and 48th by Rivals.
If those rankings held, 2024 would yield the lowest-ranked incoming recruiting class of the Stoops era — which has never seen UK finish lower than 35th in the Rivals.com team recruiting rankings since 2013.
For my money, fan-base psychology is the most-interesting facet of big-time college sports.
After decades of enduring ample amounts of football suffering, Kentucky backers have gotten a taste of success during UK’s current seven-year bowl streak.
In that context, it is understandable why some Cats fans have become obsessed with “recruiting stars” as they look for signs that Kentucky’s recent run of relative football success is sustainable.
That faction of UK fandom was hoping Kentucky’s 2022 recruiting class — which saw the Wildcats sign 11 four-star-rated prospects in a 20-player class that Rivals ranked as the 13th best in the country — was the Cats’ “new normal.”
On a macro level, let’s stipulate that recruiting in the manner that Georgia and Alabama are able to — stacking four- and five-star prospects — is the most-certain path to on-the-field success.
However, Kentucky has neither the in-state recruiting base nor the football brand power to achieve that level of recruiting. For a coaching staff to succeed at UK, a big component is always going to involve the ability to spot undervalued prospects and develop them into something special.
Out of all college football fan bases, UK backers have every reason not to overreact to the “star ratings” of incoming Wildcats’ football prospects.
Consider:
— Since Stoops became top Cat before the 2013 season, Kentucky has had 24 players selected in the NFL draft. Of those, 16 entered the UK program rated as a three-star prospect or below.
Of UK’s three first-round draft selections under Stoops, two, Bud Dupree and Jamin Davis, were three-star prospects in the 247Sports Composite Rankings entering college; the third, Josh Allen, was rated a two-star recruit.
— UK has had five AP First Team All-America selections since 2018. Of those five, two were four-star prospects, Lynn Bowden and Darian Kinnard; two were three stars, Bunchy Stallings and Max Duffy; and one, Allen, was a two star.
— Before Allen was developed into the No. 7 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, Kentucky beat out Alabama A&M, Buffalo, Hawaii, Kansas and Monmouth for his services.
Before Stallings became a first-team All-America offensive guard, UK prevailed over Colorado, Mississippi State, Jacksonville State, Southern Mississippi, Tennessee State and Western Kentucky to get him.
Before Luke Fortner became a third-round choice in the 2022 NFL draft and the Jacksonville Jaguars’ starting center, Kentucky beat out Akron, Cincinnati, Marshall, Maryland, Toledo and Western Michigan to sign him.
Before Calvin Taylor became one of the SEC’s most prolific pass rushers in 2019 (with 8.5 sacks), UK won out over Charlotte and Temple to land him.
Before Christopher Rodriguez became the third-leading rusher (3,643 career yards) in Kentucky football history and a sixth-round NFL draft pick in 2023, UK had to out-recruit Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Colorado State, Georgia State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, South Alabama and Troy to get him.
There are so many variables that go into how a recruiting class ultimately pans out.
Of those 11 four-star prospects Kentucky inked in 2022, three have already transferred to different schools.
I don’t recall any parades in Lexington in 2017 when UK signed a recruiting class that was ranked No. 30 in the 247Sports Composite. Yet that class has sent seven players on to active NFL rosters.
Last year, after all the summer histrionics about Kentucky’s NIL woes, UK got its act together well enough to sign a class that Rivals ranked No. 27 in the country.
Meanwhile, after all the hype about Louisville’s NIL head start, the Cardinals — who, in fairness, changed coaches during the recruiting cycle — saw their final class rated No. 43 by Rivals.
For all the attention around Tennessee’s NIL efforts, the Volunteers’ 2023 recruiting class ended up ranked No. 12 by Rivals. That was exactly the same as UT’s 2022 class. And its 2019 class.
Bottom line: Based on the track record of the Stoops era, there’s every reason to expect that the overall quality of Kentucky’s 2024 recruiting class will end up being sufficient to allow UK football to be competitive going forward.
