In a recent incident, the U.S. Navy intercepted a barrage of drones and missiles over the Red Sea, believed to be orchestrated by the Iran-backed Houthis. The interception occurred after 10 hours of constant vigilance by the Navy. This development comes on the heels of President Biden ordering strikes against Iranian-backed militants in Iraq, following a rocket attack that injured three U.S. troops at Erbil Air Force Base.
The escalating conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns regarding the extent of U.S. involvement in the region. A new piece in The Atlantic argues that a rebel group is now impacting the global economy, and a maritime conflict has ensued, leaving the U.S. little choice but to engage. The piece further asserts that attempts to avoid direct engagement with the Houthis are futile, as their activities have already necessitated U.S. involvement.
Reports indicate that in a single day, 17 missile and drone strikes were launched by the Houthis from their stronghold in Yemen towards cargo ships in the Red Sea. Considering that the Red Sea is a crucial checkpoint between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, through which 10% of global trade and 30% of maritime trade pass via the Suez Canal, the gravity of the situation becomes apparent. The attacks have led many major shipping companies to divert their routes and take the longer and riskier journey through the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, significantly affecting the global supply chain and resulting in heightened oil prices.
The U.S. has already initiated efforts to protect the ships passing through the Red Sea. However, their engagement has not deterred the Houthis thus far, leading to the possibility of greater involvement, including strikes against Houthi strongholds launching attacks towards the Suez Canal.
The situation has also presented economic challenges. Approximately 12% of global trade relies on the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. This additional obstacle comes at a time when the Biden administration is grappling with various headwinds. The shipping industry, having transitioned from a just-in-time approach to a just-in-case footing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, has limited flexibility to deal with disruptions. By bypassing the Suez Canal and opting for the longer route, shipping times are elongated by about two weeks.
Although the U.S. has launched counterstrikes in Syria and against Iranian proxies in Iraq, the Houthis have not yet been targeted. The complexity of the situation stems from the intricate dynamics across the region, particularly the complications faced by Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. This proxy war in Yemen between Saudi Arabia and Iran has left the Saudis hesitant to engage further, primarily due to concerns over being perceived as supporting Israel and the U.S. backing of Israel.
As tensions in the region continue to rise, not only Saudi Arabia but U.S. officials as well are apprehensive about the potential escalation of conflicts. The United States is finding itself relatively isolated in this situation, necessitating its responsibility to protect the Suez Canal. While the defense secretary has mentioned the idea of a 10-nation consortium, the bulk of counterattacks have been launched by the United States thus far.
The evolving developments in the Middle East call for close monitoring as global stakeholders navigate the delicate balance between protecting economic interests and averting further escalation.
