PHILADELPHIA — Dave Dombrowski’s first responsibility is to win the next World Series. His second is to win the ones that follow. His third is to stay within a reasonable budget.
When he signed right-handed starter Taijuan Walker to a four-year, $72 million contract Friday, Dealin’ Dave crossed a significant “T” in fulfilling his responsibilities. In March, he dotted a meaningful “I” when he signed Nick Castellanos to a five-year, $100 million contract.
He knew that, come November of 2023, two homegrown cornerstones — Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins — might be walking away with more cash than the Phillies can afford.
“Yes, you’re always thinking ahead,” Dombrowski said when asked specifically about Walker and Castellanos replacing Nola and Hoskins in the Phillies’ long-term vision. “I don’t want to seem like we’re doing it because we think they’re going to leave. But you have to be prepared for it.”
The plan will only work if Walker continues to refine his repertoire and if Castellanos regains the form that led the Phils to exceed the luxury tax this season for the first time in franchise history.
This time next year, Nola likely will be a 30-year-old jewel in a strong class of free-agent starting pitchers. If that sounds hyperbolic, this season only Angels megastar Shohei Ohtani had a higher wins above replacement than Nola’s 6.0. The Phillies picked up Nola’s $16 million team option for 2023 just two days after they lost Game 6 of the World Series. The Phillies have said they hope to extend Nola’s contract, but, if they don’t, they believe Walker’s ceiling might approach Nola’s current stature.
Similarly, this time next year Rhys Hoskins likely will be a 30-year-old veteran among a top-heavy class that should include Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers and could include Manny Machado, who can opt out in San Diego. Hoskins is in his final year of arbitration. The Phillies signed Castellanos hoping that, if they couldn’t extend Hoskins, Castellanos, a former third baseman, would be able to play first base.
The plan only matters if Nola and Hoskins don’t get extensions or re-sign. It’s hard to imagine that neither of them cash in.
Nola exorcised many of his late-season demons in September and October. From 2017-22, he ranks second among starters in innings pitched (1,039 2/3), third in WAR behind only Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, 11th in both strikeout-to-walk ratio and WHIP, and 19th in ERA. Nola’s going to be rolling in it.
Hoskins has an .833 OPS since 2018, his first full season, and his 130 home runs rank 16th in that span. He hasn’t proved to be a generational talent. But if he has a big season in 2023, considering his competition, there’s no reason why Hoskins shouldn’t expect something around $200 million — a $25 million average annual value for the next six to eight years, less than Paul Goldschmidt ($26 million), who will be 36, and Freddie Freeman ($27 million), who’ll be 34.
Don’t sleep on Hoskins’ value. He’s averaged 30 home runs over his four full (non-COVID) seasons. He hit big postseason home runs on the biggest stage in the toughest sports town on the planet. He is the unquestioned leader of the most beloved baseball team in 29 years.
And he’s got a bulldog in his corner.
Scott Boras was in Philadelphia for Walker’s press conference, but he’s Hoskins’ agent, too. He didn’t offer insight to any talks between the sides or speculate on Hoskins’ worth in a year, but he said in the past that he believes that teams can practice what he calls “contractual management.”
That means they can look farther down the road than Kyle Schwarber’s deal that expires after 2025 and Castellanos’ deal that expires in 2026, back-load a Hoskins contract to keep them closer to the luxury-tax threshold until that money clears, and keep murderous lineup intact through Bryce Harper’s MVP prime, which could last another seven years or so.
Factor in the continued affordability of young players like Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and Ranger Suárez, and keeping either Hoskins or Nola — the pride of the franchise’s farm system — might not be so far-fetched.
And if they can’t keep Hoss and Nola?
If that happens, Dombrowski already has Plan B in place.
