The Phillies faced their biggest game in recent memory Sunday night. The visiting Cardinals sat just ahead of them in the playoff race, and they’d split the first two games of the weekend series.
No problem. Their most important player was ready to go.
That’s right. There’s a strong argument to be made that starter Zack Wheeler, not MVP Bryce Harper, is the Phillies’ most important player. That’s because there’s a strong argument to be made that, when considering consistent excellence and durability, Wheeler’s the best starter in the game.
We’ve had this argument before, when Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard pushed the Phillies to 199 wins in 2010 and 2011. It’s a pleasant argument to have. Before you dismiss today’s discussion, consider, at least, the situation Sunday.
Wheeler dealt seven shutout innings in a 4-0 win on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. The Phillies entered their July 4 off day with a shutout victory. They’d lost starter Zach Eflin on June 28 to a knee issue. They’d lost starter Ranger Suárez that morning to a back problem. After the starters Friday and Saturday managed just four innings each, three relievers were unavailable. They’d lost Harper, the reigning MVP, on June 26 to a broken thumb.
A prime-time defeat Sunday with their $118 million man on the mound would have been the sort of loss that turns a hot team cold. Instead, the Phillies won their 20th of 29 games since bench coach Rob Thomson replaced manager Joe Girardi. They began a three-game set Tuesday against the Nationals one game out of the final National League wild-card spot.
“Him carrying the load — that’s what one of your aces does,” Thomson said Tuesday.
If the Phillies slide into the playoffs come Oct. 5, what Wheeler did on July 3 could be, as $100 million outfielder Nick Castellanos put it, “Huge.” When Wheeler pitches, can sluggers like Castellanos relax a bit? “Absolutely.” In light of the cascade of injuries, what did it mean for Wheeler to step up? “Everything.”
Nick is succinct.
Anyway: $118 million for Wheeler? It’s beginning to look like a bargain.
Seriously?
Is Wheeler as unhittable as former Mets teammate Jacob de Grom? No, but de Grom has made 27 starts since 2020, less than half of Wheeler’s total. Does he strike out hitters like Yankees star Gerrit Cole? No, but Cole has given up 52 homers since 2020, more than twice Wheeler’s total. Is he as stingy at allowing runners as surging Brewers starter Corbin Burnes or Mets ace Max Scherzer? No, but he’s walked fewer batters per nine innings than either over the last three seasons.
Since he arrived in Philadelphia in 2020, no pitcher who matches Wheeler’s 58 starts has an ERA as low as his 2.78.
Since the beginning of the 2021 season, 16 pitchers have logged runs of at least 12 games with ERAs of 1.67 or less. Only Wheeler has done it twice in the past two seasons. An offseason shoulder issue and a lockout-abbreviated spring training kept him from facing major league hitters in spring training, so his first three starts of the regular season served as his spring. Since then, he’s logged a 1.67 ERA in his last 12 starts.
It was the sixth time he surrendered four hits or fewer. It was the fifth time he gave up zero runs and the seventh time he gave up one run or less. It was the eighth time he walked one or none. The Cardinals have the fourth-fewest strikeouts in the National League, so they struck out just five times, but Wheeler struck out at least seven hitters in 10 of these 12 starts.
Wheeler was an All Star last season and finished second to Burnes in Cy Young Award voting, which was robbery. So, how is he so often overlooked and unmentioned in conversations about the best starter in baseball?
For one thing, at a slim 6-foot-4 and 195 pounds, with a bushy, reddish beard, Wheeler looks a lot more like a hemp dealer than a fireballer.
For another, he stays quiet.
“I don’t say as much as I maybe should,” Wheeler said Tuesday. “Other guys might get more because they put themselves out there, but I don’t like all that attention.”
In baseball, eventually, the attention finds you. Some players shrink from the moment.
Wheeler relishes it.
“Obviously, we’re playing the Cardinals. Obviously, the series is split. Obviously, we’re battling with them for a wild-card spot. Prime-time game,” he said. “You know all those things going in. You get yourself pumped up. It definitely boosts the moment.
“You know, going in, it’s a must-win game.”
Show me the money
It was imperative that the Phillies complement Harper and All Star catcher J.T. Realmuto with better pitching, so, after Wheeler went 23-15 in 2018 and 2019 with the Mets, they targeted him — at $23.6 million a year? That raised eyebrows.
“It was a pretty good signing, I’d say,” Thomson said. “When we first signed him there were some other guys out there at the time. We really leaned on Wheels, and luckily he came here. Because he’s been really something.”
In 2020, Cole landed with the Yankees at $36 million a year, and he’s been great, but the contract — nine years, $324 million — is a pending disaster. Stephen Strasburg remained with the Nationals for $35 million a year, but, because of injuries, he’s pitched eight games since signing his seven-year, $245 million deal. Hyun Jin-Ryu went from the Dodgers to the Blue Jays for $20 million a year — four years, $80 million — and he’s been a solid value: 21-12, 4.07 ERA in 49 starts — but he’s been nowhere near as good as Wheeler.
Too often, a rising star gets paid and disappears. Wheeler has kept on rising.
“Certain guys treat it differently,” Wheeler said. “When they get paid, they shut it down. Maybe they lose concentration. Try too hard. Get older. Injury. I told myself when I signed it, I’m going to stay the same guy.”
Which is why nobody pays him much attention.
Thomson, an attention-shunner himself, is part of the reason Wheeler gets so little attention. Since Wheeler arrived, the Phillies have:
— Endured a COVID-shortened season in 2020.
— Relieved Matt Klentak and Andy MacPhail of front-office duties and replaced them, in December 2020, with Dave Dombrowski.
— Endured a COVID-addled season in 2021 in which their unvaccinated players stole headlines.
— Enjoyed an MVP season in 2021 from Harper.
— Endured mystifying inconsistencies from starter Aaron Nola and slugger Rhys Hoskins.
— Seen Dombrowski, in March, exceed the luxury tax for the first time in Phillies history.
— Seen Dombrowski, in June, fire a big-name manager in Girardi.
— Seen Thomson promptly win his first eight games as manager.
— Lamented Harper breaking his thumb.
So, yeah. It’s been a lot.
Better than Bryce? Um ...
Comparing pitchers to everyday players is ever a sideways discussion. No pitcher is expected to finish games, much less perform every day. But value is value, and baseball values starters; they occupy six of the top 10 salary slots in 2022.
So if you pose the question, “Who has been better at his job?” ... then could your answer be Wheeler?
No.
Since 2020, no player who has played at least 200 games comes close to Harper’s OPS of 1.012. Nationals outfielder Juan Soto is second, at .981, 31 points behind.
But what if the question is “Who is more valuable?” Then, the answer certainly could be Wheeler.
The Phillies this winter spent $179 million to reinforce their lineup with Kyle Schwarber and Castellanos. They did nothing to reinforce their starting rotation. Nola has regained the form that made him a solid No. 2-caliber starter in 2019 and 2020, but he and Kyle Gibson remain inconsistent; they’ve combined to give up at least four earned runs in nine of their 32 starts.
Wheeler did that twice, in his second and third starts of the season, which, of course, were the second and third times he faced big-league hitters this year.
Since then?
He’s been one of the best in baseball.
Again.
