You’ve seen the NCAA men’s tournament seedings. Now, check out where each of the 68 teams in the Big Dance should really stack up with each other. The Sports Illustrated 1–68 rankings are back:
[ March Madness 2024: News & Analysis | Schedule | Bracket ]
1. UConn Huskies
NCAA seed: No. 1.
There is only one thing easy about doing this list, and it’s putting the Huskies at the top. The defending national champions are rolling again. They’re a dazzling passing team that gets good shots and makes them, and on the rare instances when they don’t shoot well, they can win with defense and rebounding. They have NBA talent across the starting lineup, a star guard in Tristen Newton, a dominant big man in 7’2” Donovan Clingan, quality depth and a coach at the top of his game in Dan Hurley. “They’re a machine,” St. John’s Red Storm coach Rick Pitino said last week, and he’s not wrong. But sending the overall No. 1 seed through an East Region that includes the winners of the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC tournaments is hardly an easy path.
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2. Houston Cougars
NCAA seed: No. 1.
There had been absolutely no doubts about the Cougars until they were run out of the Big 12 championship game by the Iowa State Cyclones, 69–41. That rekindled old fears about whether Houston has enough ways to put the ball in the basket. Still, the body of work suggests this simply was a very bad day against a very good opponent—because Houston has been sensational all season. Combining the nation’s No. 2 defense with an elite guard tandem of Jamal Shead (13.1 points, 6.2 assists, 2.3 steals per game) and L.J. Cryer (a team-high 15.3 ppg) is a nice formula for March.
Related: South Region Breakdown: Top Two Seeds Houston and Marquette Have Strong Cases
3. Purdue Boilermakers
NCAA seed: No. 1.
No team carries more emotional luggage into this tournament than the Boilers, who joined the Virginia Cavaliers in the Club of Infamy last year by losing to a No. 16 seed. Purdue’s litany of March mishaps is well known, but this team seemingly has the makings of one that could break through for the school’s first men’s Final Four since 1980—and possibly its first NCAA men’s tournament title ever. Purdue has the best player—and the one most capable of dictating how a game is played—in 7’4” Zach Edey. Perimeter defense will be vital, as will the overall stability of guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. When they’re good, they’re very good. And when they’re not, Purdue is in trouble.
Related: Midwest Region Breakdown: Can Purdue Finally Break Through?
4. North Carolina Tar Heels
NCAA seed: No. 1.
I’m not reading too much into the Heels’ ACC tournament final loss to the adrenaline-fueled North Carolina State Wolfpack. Carolina had a consistently strong season that was marked by a notable improvement defensively over recent years. (Ken Pomeroy ranks the Heels sixth nationally in defensive efficiency, their highest ranking in that metric since 2011.) Guard RJ Davis has blossomed into a star, Stanford Cardinal transfer Harrison Ingram has injected some toughness and center Armando Bacot is a fifth-year veteran who knows how to win physical battles in the paint. Three-point shooter Cormac Ryan can be streaky; Heels need him hitting if they’re going to make a deep run.
Related: West Region Breakdown: North Carolina Earns Last No. 1 Seed But Has Hard Path
5. Iowa State Cyclones
NCAA seed: No. 2.
The team that showed up in Kansas City looked capable of winning a national championship. The Clones stormed through three opponents with an average winning margin of 20.3 points, trailing for a total of 5:47 out of 120 minutes. Guard Keshon Gilbert played some of his best ball since transferring from the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in the offseason, averaging 16 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5 assists and 3.7 steals to win the tourney Most Outstanding Player award. Iowa State thrives on defensive disruption, forcing opponent turnovers on more than 25% of their possessions. This is T.J. Otzelberger’s best offensive team in three seasons at the school, but the Cyclones are still more at home in a rock fight than a free-flowing game.
6. Marquette Golden Eagles
NCAA seed: No. 2.
Arguably the most important injury status of the tournament is that of point guard Tyler Kolek, who hasn’t played yet this month due to an oblique injury. He’s the Marquette engine, the distributor who makes the offense go and a key disruptor in Shaka Smart’s “Havoc” defense. The Eagles have other standouts, most notably big man Oso Ighodaro and guard Kam Jones (forward David Joplin had a nice Big East tourney). Smart has some proving to do in this tourney; after taking the VCU Rams to a Cinderella Final Four in 2011, he hasn’t made it past the first weekend in nine tries at three different schools.
Related: Five Teams to Avoid in Men’s March Madness Bracket
7. Auburn Tigers
NCAA seed: No. 4.
The Tigers have all the parts, including a coach who has gotten it done in this tournament before. They have a star big man in Johni Broome (16.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.3 blocks per game) and abundant perimeter firepower (seven players have made 26 or more three-pointers). Auburn’s athletic defense is even better than its offense, leading the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed. And this is a scary momentum team, capable of getting on rolls that bury opponents. But its path to the SEC tourney title didn’t go through the Tennessee Volunteers, Kentucky Wildcats or Alabama Crimson Tide, against whom Auburn is a combined 1–3. Can the Tigers beat the best teams in front of them … including UConn in a potential Sweet 16 showdown?
Related: East Region Breakdown: Auburn Could Stand in UConn’s Way
8. Tennessee Volunteers
NCAA seed: No. 2.
The Vols are second only to Purdue in terms of urgency to exorcize March demons. The program has never been to a Final Four, and in recent years has found particularly painful ways to be eliminated. They’ve been roadkill during improbable tourney runs by the lower-seeded Florida Atlantic Owls (last year), Oregon State Beavers (2021) and Loyola Chicago Ramblers (’18). Rick Barnes, whose one and only Final Four came in ’03 with the Texas Longhorns, upgraded his offensive firepower with the arrival of Dalton Knecht, who merely went from the Northern Colorado Bears to SEC Player of the Year. Everything was proceeding splendidly until season’s end, when the Vols lost at home to Kentucky and then were shredded in their first SEC tourney game by the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Suddenly this team is coming into Bracketville with warning lights flashing.
9. Baylor Bears
NCAA seed: No. 3.
After winning it all with a dominant team in 2021, the Bears have gone out early the last two years. They were a second-round knockout as a No. 1 seed in ’22 (North Carolina) and a No. 3 seed last year (Creighton Bluejays). The current team has some NBA-level talent in freshmen Ja’Kobe Walter and 7-footer Yves Missi, plus plenty of additional offensive firepower. But the Bears don’t guard as well as Scott Drew’s best teams. The draw is inviting, with the Colgate Raiders overmatched athletically in the opening round, the Clemson Tigers a vulnerable No. 6 seed and the Arizona Wildcats the same in the Sweet 16. It’s not hard to foresee a Baylor–North Carolina regional final rematch of the ’22 second-round game, with the Heels this time as the No. 1 seed.
10. Arizona Wildcats
NCAA seed: No. 2.
This is a team with all the parts for a Final Four run—size, shooters and defensive ability. It’s also a team capable of absolute clunkers (lost to Oregon State and the USC Trojans, swept by the Washington State Cougars). This could be described as life on the Caleb Love continuum. The boom-or-bust former North Carolina guard was the Pac-12 Player of the Year but also has made just 7 of 34 shots from the field and 1 of 4 free throws in the last three games—two of them upset losses. Tommy Lloyd is 86–19 at Arizona, but only 2–2 in the NCAA tourney. He’s got some proving to do this week.
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11. Illinois Fighting Illini
NCAA seed: No. 3.
They have a leading man who took the Illini to the Big Ten tournament title and could, theoretically, take them a long way in this tourney as well. Guard Terrence Shannon Jr. averaged 34 points in three wins in Minneapolis, shooting a whopping 44 free throws and making 38 of them. Southern Illinois Salukis transfer Marcus Domask is a capable second offensive option, and 6’10” Coleman Hawkins has an interesting mix of skills. This is an old team that is trying to take coach Brad Underwood where he’s never been before—the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. Underwood’s record in this event is an underwhelming 4–7.
Related: March Madness Brackets: Expert Predictions for the 2024 Men’s NCAA Tournament
12. Creighton Bluejays
NCAA seed: No. 3.
The nucleus of this team was within two seconds of the Final Four last year before the San Diego State Aztecs snatched it away. The hunch here is that they will play with supreme motivation and focus to take that next step this time around, in a region that should offer the opportunity. Having blasted both UConn and Marquette during the season, Creighton is capable of great things. The Jays have three players who can be leading scoring options in Baylor Scheierman (18.4 points per game), Trey Alexander (17.6) and Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.1). The 7-foot Kalkbrenner also provides a long defensive presence in the paint—and could provide legitimate opposition to Edey if they meet up in a regional final. Creighton lost early in the Big East tournament, but the rest could benefit a team with limited depth.
13. Duke Blue Devils
NCAA seed: No. 4.
What to do with the Dukies? There is NBA talent, and there also is inconsistency. There is size and shooting ability but also periods of defensive lassitude. There were stretches when the Devils played quality basketball for weeks at a time, and yet this is a team on a two-game losing streak, having been beaten at home by North Carolina and upset by NC State in the ACC tourney. It’s a big week for Jon Scheyer, who didn’t get out of the first weekend last year with a No. 3 seed. Comparisons to Mike Krzyzewski are flatly unfair, but this is Duke. Expectations are going to be high.
14. Saint Mary’s Gaels
NCAA seed: No. 5.
It’s been a long time since the Gaels made it to the Sweet 16—14 years, in fact—but this team is capable. Staying true to his style in a faster and more offense-focused era, Randy Bennett will slow the pace and grind with the best of them. Saint Mary’s is great on the glass, ranking third nationally in offensive rebound rate and second on the defensive backboard. The Gaels elevated their play when Augustus Marciulionis took on more of the table-setting role, freeing Aidan Mahaney to play off the ball more. Wing Alex Ducas has been a potent perimeter threat in recent weeks and Harvard Crimson transfer Mason Forbes has come on during February and March as well.
15. Gonzaga Bulldogs
NCAA seed: No. 5.
With their lowest seed since 2016, the Zags’ streak of eight straight Sweet 16s will be challenged—but don’t count them out. In fact, being a No. 5 seed is probably higher than their résumé deserved, but Gonzaga flashed its potential during a nine-game winning streak in February and March. Point guard Ryan Nembhard has elevated his play, as has backcourt mate Nolan Hickman. Anton Watson is playing with the urgency of a fifth-year senior, and role players Ben Gregg and Braden Huff have stepped up. The key will be getting center Graham Ike back on form after a poor West Coast Conference tournament performance. He’s this year’s low-post Drew Timme, complete with a headband and facial hair but less showmanship.
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16. Kentucky Wildcats
NCAA seed: No. 3.
O.K., this is where it gets really interesting. The Cats are a hot mess—offensively dazzling and defensively dysfunctional, often at the same time. They could absolutely shoot themselves into the Final Four or give up 90 to the Oakland Golden Grizzlies and lose in the first round. All other outcomes in between are possible. The guard trio of Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham and Antonio Reeves is elite offensively, having combined to make 215 threes. The three 7-footers are completely random contributors, capable of dazzling lob dunks and blocked shots—and being spindled in pick-and-roll defensive coverage. The only way John Calipari can reverse his sliding approval rating is by doing something in March, where his postseason record (SEC and NCAA tourneys) is 2–6 over the last four years.
17. Kansas Jayhawks
NCAA seed: No. 4.
They began the season at No. 1 and end it on the brink of a crashing disappointment. Kansas is 9–9 over its last 18 games and hasn’t won more than two in a row since Dec. 22 to Jan. 6. There were late-season injuries to vital players, guard Kevin McCullar Jr. and center Hunter Dickinson, and they’re both expected back for this tournament. But after losing by 30 to Houston and 20 to the Cincinnati Bearcats in their last two games, there is more to fix than poor health—the Jayhawks were 6-for-41 from three in those two train wrecks. After strong performances for most of January and February, forward Johnny Furphy might have hit the freshman wall—he’s averaged just 6.3 points in March. Drawing the Samford Bulldogs puts Kansas on first-round upset alert.
18. San Diego State Aztecs
NCAA seed: No. 5.
Do they have another magical run in them? That seems like a lot to ask, especially of a team that ranks 307th nationally in three-point accuracy. But the tireless adherence to defense that is a staple of Brian Dutcher’s program remains, and that will make San Diego State a tough out. Post player Jaedon LeDee (21.1 points, 8.4 rebounds) is the latest in a long line of Aztecs who ascended from role player one season to standout the next. The rest of the starting lineup were all key contributors to the Final Four run. This is an experienced and tough team that needs to make enough shots to advance.
Related: Mountain West Takes Torch of Hottest Men’s Basketball Conference on West Coast
19. James Madison Dukes
NCAA seed: No. 12.
The search for the next Florida Atlantic/Loyola Chicago has settled here. You know the type: a veteran coach who puts together a team that has a great season in a mid-major conference and comes into the Big Dance unfamiliar with losing. That would be the Dukes, who are on a 13-game winning streak and opened the season with a win at the Michigan State Spartans. Dusty May was in his fifth year as a head coach when he had the good-to-great breakthrough at FAU. Porter Moser was in his 14th year when it happened at Loyola. Mark Byington is in Year 11 overall and his fourth at JMU. The Wisconsin Badgers will be a tough matchup—but that goes both ways.
Related: 10 Potential Cinderellas in 2024 Men’s NCAA Tournament
20. Wisconsin Badgers
NCAA seed: No. 5.
There have basically been three Wisconsin seasons in one: the strong 16–4 start, the 3–8 stagger through the end of the regular season and the 3–1 Big Ten tourney performance that included taking down Purdue. Can the Badgers keep that last part going? We’ll see. For the first time in Greg Gard’s nine seasons, the Badgers have stronger offensive metrics than defensive—this is a team that can fill it up. AJ Storr is a streaky shooter who averaged 22.5 points in the Big Ten tourney. Guard Chucky Hepburn and 7-footer Steven Crowl have elevated their play. But the opening opponent is dangerous, which means Wisconsin will have to regroup quickly from a fairly exhausting Big Ten run.
21. Florida Gators
NCAA seed: No. 7.
It took a while for Todd Golden’s transfer-intensive roster to mesh, but when it did the Gators improved considerably. They won 13 of their last 18 games, including victories over Kentucky, Auburn and Alabama twice. Reaching the SEC tournament final was the final indicator of Florida’s upward trajectory (although losing backup big man Micah Handlogten to a broken leg in that game was a jarring development). Florida specializes in smashing the offensive glass, with Seton Hall Pirates transfer Tyrese Samuel the leader in that department. Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard and Zyon Pullin are a productive perimeter trio, but sophomore guard Riley Kugel’s slide from the rotation is puzzling. (A one-time starter, he didn’t get off the bench in Florida’s last two games.)
22. Texas Tech Red Raiders
NCAA seed: No. 6.
They gathered some March momentum by winning the last three games of the regular season and then smashing the BYU Cougars in the Big 12 tourney (before being smashed, in turn, by Houston, which went on to be smashed by Iowa State). Tech is short but skilled, shooting well from three-point range (36.5%) and the oil line (77.8%). The Red Raiders have two injury situations to monitor: guard Darrion Williams and 7-footer Warren Washington. First-year coach Grant McCasland has an impressive résumé. He’s never had a losing season in eight years at three schools—Arkansas State Red Wolves, North Texas Mean Green and now Texas Tech. At North Texas, he scored a memorable upset of Purdue in the 2021 NCAAs and won last year’s NIT.
23. Alabama Crimson Tide
NCAA seed: No. 4.
There are warning lights flashing around the Crimson Tide, who have lost four of their last six games. In three of those losses, the Tide have been blown out while giving up more than 100 points—failing to defend without fouling, to grab rebounds or to force turnovers. Bama lives by a frantic pace and tons of threes, and it can die that way as well. It’s possible that Nate Oats’s team simply outshoots opponents and makes a run—but his NCAA track record at Alabama is grim. In 2021, he was upset as a No. 2 seed by the UCLA Bruins in the Sweet 16. In ’22, he was bounced in the first round as a No. 6 seed by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and last year, he was shocked by San Diego State as the overall No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16.
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24. BYU Cougars
NCAA seed: No. 6.
If you think Alabama chucks threes, get a load of the Cougars. Mark Pope’s team is the only one in the tournament that launches more than half of its shots from beyond the arc. That helps create room at the rim for drives or pick-and-roll opportunities, which explains BYU’s 58% two-point shooting. That also means the Cougars don’t get to the foul line much, having attempted 95 fewer free throws than their opponents. BYU finished the season unevenly but might benefit from getting outside the Big 12 after its first season in the league. A first-round matchup with an overseeded Duquesne presents an opportunity for a good start.
25. Nebraska Cornhuskers
NCAA seed: No. 8.
Their metamorphosis into a fun—and successful—team came as a fresh surprise this season, resulting in the program’s first bid in a decade. Their leading scorer is from Japan (three-point specialist Keisei Tominaga), their top rebounder and assist man is from the Netherlands by way of the Missouri Valley Conference (Bradley Braves transfer Rienk Mast) and sculpted power forward Josiah Allick has the most hair of anyone in the tournament. Are these Huskers good enough to win an 0–7 program’s first NCAA men’s tournament game ever? Yes. But drawing the Texas A&M Aggies in the opener is tough.
26. Texas A&M Aggies
NCAA seed: No. 9.
The Aggies certainly haven’t followed the crowd in terms of playing style. This is the worst three-point shooting team in the tournament by a wide margin, making a ghastly 28.4% from beyond the arc. But it’s also the best offensive rebounding team in the tournament, grabbing 42% of its own misses. Basically, guards Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford do the shooting and everyone else crashes the glass. It’s worked well enough to beat Iowa State, Kentucky twice, Tennessee and Florida. Buzz Williams did some nice March work at Marquette but is yet to record an NCAA victory at A&M.
27. Dayton Flyers
NCAA seed: No. 7.
It’s difficult to appraise the Flyers, who won neither the Atlantic 10 regular-season nor tourney title but have strong predictive metrics. After starting 16–2, they finished 8–5, losing a lot of close games. Dayton can shoot the lights out, making 40.2% of its threes, with an array of bombers playing through talented big man DaRon Holmes (20.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.1 blocks per game). Dayton has attempted 49 more free throws than its opponents have made, which is a useful dynamic at tournament time.
28. Drake Bulldogs
NCAA seed: No. 10.
Drake came remarkably close to altering the course of the 2023 tournament, losing an eight-point lead in the final five minutes of a first-round game against the Miami Hurricanes—a team that wound up in the Final Four. That’s one of those losses that can motivate a team for the long haul, and I expect the Missouri Valley champions to potentially disrupt the East Region bracket. They have a legit leading man in Tucker DeVries, the coach’s son; a powerful low-post presence in 275-pound Darnell Brodie; and an improved set of guards. The Valley was undervalued by the selection committee, which snubbed the Indiana State Sycamores. Drake is here to prove the league’s worth.
Related: ‘We Have an Angel’: The Emotion of Drake’s Win for the DeVries Family
29. Texas Longhorns
NCAA seed: No. 7.
The potential variance on the Longhorns’ performance is vast. They have the talent and offensive firepower to make a deep run, coming out of the Big 12 hardened by the competition. They’re also a team that hasn’t won more than two straight games since Dec. 22 to Jan. 1, and might not defend well enough to go anywhere. Undersized guard Max Abmas, the shot-making hero of the 2021 tournament while with the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, gets a last run at March Madness glory as a fifth-year senior.
30. Nevada Wolf Pack
NCAA seed: No. 10.
How Steve Alford’s team fares will help provide a referendum on the Mountain West and its record six bids. Nevada went 13–1 in nonconference play but didn’t play a lot of quality opponents (it went 1–1 against NCAA tourney teams, beating the TCU Horned Frogs but getting thumped by Drake). After a tough month of MWC play, Nevada closed strong with seven straight wins (including triumphs in Boise, Idaho, and Fort Collins, Colo.). Alford did a nice job with this team, losing a couple of key transfers but making the holdovers better.
31. Oregon Ducks
NCAA seed: No. 11.
If you let Dana Altman in the tournament, he tends to stay a while. Altman is 7–0 in first-round games while at Oregon, with one Final Four and four Sweet 16 appearances. And the Ducks peaked right on time in Las Vegas, beating UCLA, Arizona and Colorado to win the automatic bid. For those who have waited for five years for the full N’Faly Dante experience, the 6’11” center has provided it over the last five games: 100 points, 49 rebounds, 11 blocked shots and 15 steals. No. 11 seeds have done considerable damage in recent years, and let’s just say that Oregon fits the profile of a damage doer.
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32. South Carolina Gamecocks
NCAA seed: No. 6.
The surprise team of the SEC earned its NCAA seeding, piling up a lot of quality wins in a high-powered league. That made Lamont Paris the deserving Coach of the Year in the league. However, the Gamecocks still have something to prove after finishing 5–4 with two losses of more than 30 points to Auburn. The team that won at Tennessee and routed Kentucky in late January hasn’t been seen in a while. Drawing a hot Oregon team in the first round adds to the urgency for South Carolina to rediscover its best basketball.
33. New Mexico Lobos
NCAA seed: No. 11.
Was their stellar surge from the bubble to the Mountain West tourney title a resurfacing of great talent that indicates the run can carry over to this tournament? Or was it a desperation effort that could leave the Lobos tapped out? We’re about to find out. New Mexico is a fun team that can really cook when the ball is moving and shots are dropping. The Lobos also have occasionally short-circuited in endgame situations. A stat that could favor Richard Pitino’s team this week: the Lobos are 8–0 on neutral courts this season.
34. Mississippi State Bulldogs
NCAA seed: No. 8.
The Bulldogs have gotten much better year-over-year offensively thanks largely to the arrival of freshman guard Josh Hubbard. He’s splashed 105 threes on the season and is averaging 25.4 points over State’s last eight games. And since this is still a Chris Jans operation, the Bulldogs remain strong defensively. They played their best game of the season to rout SEC champion Tennessee in the tournament quarterfinals, and following that up with a loss to Auburn was not a step backward. State hasn’t been great in close games (3–6 when decided by six points or fewer), which is a concern come tourney time.
35. Florida Atlantic Owls
NCAA seed: No. 8.
Here’s the sobering assessment of the 2023 Final Four darling—they brought virtually everyone back from that team and aren’t as good. It might simply have been impossible to replicate. Changing conferences added a degree of difficulty. There was more attention and pressure. On the court that has manifested itself in being a much worse team defensively, giving up easier shots and more offensive rebounds and forcing fewer turnovers. They also tend to squander offensive possessions with overly quick shots. But that doesn’t mean FAU is bad, and it doesn’t mean it isn’t dangerous in this tourney—its “A” game was good enough to beat Arizona in December. Don’t be shocked to see the Owls raise their level of play and at least give UConn a run for a half in the round of 32.
Related: March Madness: Eight Best Men’s NCAA Tournament Games of First Weekend
36. Northwestern Wildcats
NCAA seed: No. 9.
Chris Collins’s team has had a great season, but injuries have taken their toll and could lead to a brief and inglorious stay in Bracketville. Guard Ty Berry was lost for the season due to a knee injury in February, and 7-footer Matthew Nicholson’s availability is unknown after missing the last three games with a foot injury. (He could come in especially handy against FAU’s Vlad Goldin.) Northwestern does have a player capable of putting the team on his back in star guard Boo Buie, a tireless maker of difficult shots. He might have to make a lot of them this week in Brooklyn.
37. Boise State Broncos
NCAA seed: No. 10.
It’s wild to think that Boise State ended up in Dayton despite beating San Diego State on the road to close the regular season—clearly, the Broncos would have been out without that win. Despite sweeping the Aztecs and New Mexico in the regular season and beating Saint Mary’s, the committee did not love the Broncos. Now, Leon Rice will have to do something he’s never done in four previous tries: win an NCAA tournament game. This is the third time Boise State has been dispatched to Dayton (once to play the Flyers on their home floor, which was a crock). Maybe this one will end differently.
38. Colorado State Rams
NCAA seed: No. 10.
Another deportee to Dayton from the Mountain West. The Rams have had some excellent wins, blowing out Creighton on a neutral floor and beating the other five MWC tourney teams at least once. This is Niko Medved’s best defensive team at CSU, and it’s a sharp passing team that gets good shots inside the arc. (If the Rams have to depend on hitting threes, they’re in trouble.) Isaiah Stevens is a program treasure: a fifth-year senior point guard with 2,335 career points and 855 assists. We’ll see how well Colorado State can run its offense against the physical, pack-line defense of Virginia.
39. Samford Bulldogs
NCAA seed: No. 13.
If you love and miss the way the Rick Pitino-era Kentucky Wildcats played, check out Samford. It comes close to pulling off the same style. The Bulldogs press relentlessly, substitute liberally and push the pace offensively whenever possible. They’re deadly from three-point range, making 39.3% of their shots outside the arc. Coach Bucky McMillan was hired from the high-school ranks in the Birmingham, Ala., area in 2020 and he brought the PitinoBall style he favored there with him to the Southern Conference. In Year 4, he has a 29–5 squad that could give Kansas more than the Jayhawks want.
40. Clemson Tigers
NCAA seed: No. 6.
The Tigers’ best basketball is in the rearview mirror, which is never the position a team wants to be in come March. They’ve lost three of their last four games, all to non-tourney teams, most recently an early punchout from Boston College by 21 points in the ACC tourney. Brad Brownell has good size and a couple of star-caliber players in 6’10” PJ Hall and sharpshooting guard Joe Girard, but this isn’t a great defensive team. Since making the Sweet 16 in 2018, Clemson has been to only one tournament and did not win a game. That drought could continue, despite drawing an advantageous seed based largely on a strong 9–0 start.
41. Michigan State Spartans
NCAA seed: No. 9.
The good news: The Month of Izzo can go on as regularly scheduled, with Michigan State making a 26th consecutive tournament appearance. The bad news: It probably will be a short Month of Izzo. The Spartans have a Dayton résumé but got a gift of a No. 9 seed, despite not beating anyone of consequence outside the state of Michigan and losing five of their last seven games. That said, they do guard with customary Tom Izzo fervor and have four players capable of big scoring games, even if it’s difficult to know who is going to do it on a given night. They’re also lacking a productive big man. Despite the flaw, CBS is hoping for a North Carolina–Michigan State second-round matchup, and Hubert Davis is not.
42. Washington State Cougars
NCAA seed: No. 7.
They’re a feel-good story that feels like it’s on a short run. After beating Arizona in Tucson on Feb. 22 to reach 21–6, a school without a real conference and a star player who overcame cancer was America’s Team. Since then, the Cougars have gone 3–3, with some rough losses. Myles Rice, the aforementioned star freshman guard, hasn’t made a three-pointer in a month—he’s 0-for-22 outside the arc over the last seven games. But if Wazzu can get its verve back, it does have some attributes. There is a lot of length that creates problems defensively, and coach Kyle Smith is underrated. The hopes of the Pac-2 ride with Washington State.
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43. TCU Horned Frogs
NCAA seed: No. 8.
The Frogs are making their third straight NCAA appearance, a first in program history and a testament to the restorative power of coach Jamie Dixon. They won games in the first round the previous two seasons and narrowly missed on major upsets in the second. We’ll see if this team is built to do more—or it could be less. TCU has treaded water in the brutal Big 12 through February and March, going 5–7 and not beating anyone who made the NCAA field in that stretch. But the Frogs also present a major athletic challenge, forcing turnovers with quickness and attacking the offensive glass.
44. Utah State Aggies
NCAA seed: No. 9.
Danny Sprinkle has done an incredible job in his first season here, importing quite literally every contributor to the Mountain West regular-season champions. The two most important players joined him from the Montana State Bobcats—big man Great Osobor (18 points, 9.2 rebounds) and guard Darius Brown II (12.4 points, 6.5 assists). Everyone else is from all over the place. In the vast muddle of good Mountain West teams, Utah State has the lowest KenPom ranking at No. 48. Opponents make a whopping 53.1% of their two-point shots, and the Aggies shoot a sketchy 32.1% from three. But they do get to the foul line a lot, and TCU likes to foul.
45. McNeese State Cowboys
NCAA seed: No. 12.
The Great College Basketball Scandal That Wasn’t turned into an exercise in NCAA incompetence, with its Independent Accountability Review Process granting double-secret probation to just about everyone not named Oklahoma State. That made former LSU Tigers outlaw Will Wade hireable at this backwater program in the Southland Conference, where he promptly remade the roster and tore up the league. The Cowboys blasted through everyone and arrive with a 30–3 record, presenting a potential problem to Gonzaga. Guard Shahada Wells is making the most of his third school in four years; he averaged 27 points and 5.5 assists in the Southland tourney. Nobody ever said Wade wasn’t a strong-ass coach.
46. Colorado Buffaloes
NCAA seed: No. 10.
The Buffs are interesting. They have a potential one-and-done NBA draft lottery pick who has played just 21 games and averaged just 6.3 points in the Pac-12 tourney. They have a center who is probably the second-widest body in the Big Dance. They have a senior forward from Germany. But most of all, they have a junior point guard who does everything—KJ Simpson averages 19.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.6 steals. He drives Tad Boyle’s bus very much the way McKinley Wright did when Colorado made the second round in 2021. Colorado won eight of its last nine games to go from disappointment to dancing in Dayton; we’ll see if there is more forward momentum to come.
47. North Carolina State Wolfpack
NCAA seed: No. 11.
The only other team to win five games in five days to capture a conference tournament and make the NCAAs wound up winning the whole damn thing—that was UConn in 2011. Given where NC State is on this list, I don’t see it happening a second time. There is no Kemba Walker here. But there are a couple of rockin’ DJs—Burns and Horne, the two leading Wolfpack scorers who combine for 29.3 points per game. Horne is a streak-shooting guard who dropped 29 on North Carolina in the ACC title game; Burns is the roundest mound in the Big Dance, coming off a 20-point, seven-assist game against the Tar Heels. But the guy NC State owes its tourney existence to is guard Michael O’Connell, whose banked in three at the buzzer against Virginia forced overtime in the ACC semifinals and kept the dream alive. The Wolfpack only have until Thursday night to get their legs back before playing Texas Tech.
48. Virginia Cavaliers
NCAA seed: No. 10.
The selection committee could have given us Indiana State and Cream Abdul-Jabbar. It could have given us any of three teams from the Big East. It could have given us a Pittsburgh team that walloped Virginia in Charlottesville. Instead it chose the Cavaliers, who come to Dayton with the lowest NCAA NET ranking of any at-large team, and the lowest KenPom ranking by 20 spots of any at-large selection. Virginia is 4–5 over its last nine games and brings the country’s No. 194 offense and slowest tempo into the tourney. Fun times.
49. Charleston Cougars
NCAA seed: No. 13.
Last year, Charleston was in a tie game with San Diego State with less than three minutes remaining, then frittered away several closing opportunities. The Aztecs went on to the national title game, and the Cougars went home to ponder what might have been. They’re back with another team on a long winning streak (12 games) and a potentially favorable draw against fading Alabama. This is a typical Pat Kelsey production—transfers from all levels, a deep bench, an up-tempo offensive attack, a lot of threes. This team is not as good defensively as last season’s, but Charleston does have three key players who gained valuable experience from last year’s tourney heartache.
50. Vermont Catamounts
NCAA seed: No. 13.
Vermont makes the tourney with admirable regularity—this is its third straight bid and 10th this century. Vermont also loses with admirable regularity upon arrival—the one shining moment was T.J. Sorrentine’s bomb to bury Syracuse in 2005. This version of Vermont isn’t great offensively, and with nobody taller than 6’8” in the rotation, it will struggle with Duke 7-footer Kyle Filipowski. But as is often the case with quality mid-major teams, the Catamounts’ strongest asset might be that they’ve forgotten how to lose. They’ve won 19 of their last 20.
51. UAB Blazers
NCAA seed: No. 12.
There is no team NCAA president Charlie Baker is happier to see in the bracket than the Blazers, who eliminated the Temple Owls on Sunday in the American Athletic Conference final to save the association from a rather awkward storyline. UAB is a wild ride—the second-worst defensive team in the field, according to KenPom, but vigorous attackers on offense who crash the glass and get to the foul line. In addition to having one of the best names in the tourney, Yaxel Lendeborg is among the best rebounders at 10.7 per game. UAB scores by committee and plays a bunch of guys, which makes for a difficult scouting report to prepare.
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52. Duquesne Dukes
NCAA seed: No. 11.
They’re writing a sweet final chapter to Keith Dambrot’s coaching story—LeBron James’s old high school mentor is retiring at the end of this season after taking the Dukes to their first NCAA men’s tournament since 1977. Duquesne endured a tough start to A-10 play, going 0–5, but since then is 15–3. The Dukes are a tough-minded defensive team that struggles with shot-making and turnovers, two things that could make it difficult to keep pace with BYU if the Cougars get hot from three-point range. Duquesne also is 294th in Division I in average height, whereas BYU is 18th.
53. Grand Canyon Antelopes
NCAA seed: No. 12.
Bryce Drew’s non-Vanderbilt record is ridiculous: he’s 217–80 at Valparaiso and Grand Canyon, and this is his fifth NCAA bid in nine seasons at those schools. (He also had an NCAA appearance at Vandy, before things got away in the last two years.) This is his best record yet—the Lopes are 29–4, one of just seven teams with four losses or fewer. Grand Canyon’s best player, Tyon Grant-Foster, has a remarkable story—he collapsed during halftime of the first game of the 2021–22 season while at DePaul and was discovered to have a heart condition. After multiple surgeries, trips to the Mayo Clinic and nearly two full years without playing a game, Grant-Foster returned this season and is averaging 19.8 points and six rebounds. This Grand Canyon team gets to the line a lot and makes its free throws; will it be able to draw fouls from the strong Saint Mary’s defense?
54. Yale Bulldogs
NCAA seed: No. 13.
Bez Mbeng to Matt Knowling for the buzzer-beating win in the Ivy League tourney final will go down as one of the more exciting plays in Yale lore, even if it crushed the Cinderella dreams of the Brown Bears. It gave the Bulldogs their fourth bid in the last eight tourneys—and they did wreak havoc once before by upsetting Duke in 2016. This Yale team might not have the juice that one did, and a matchup with hyper-athletic Auburn is daunting. But Yale does have some size to throw at Tigers big man Johni Broome in 7-footer Danny Wolf. The sophomore has produced 14 double doubles this season.
55. Morehead State Eagles
NCAA seed: No. 14.
Morehead told on itself back in December when it went into Assembly Hall and led the Indiana Hoosiers by 15 points with fewer than nine minutes to play. The Eagles couldn’t land the plane and lost by one, but it was an indication of their capability. Now, they take on another Big Ten team in Illinois—a tougher challenge, to be sure. Morehead shoots 10% better from two-point range and 4.2% better from three than its opponents, a good indication of its dominance in the Ohio Valley Conference. (Outside of a three-game losing streak in five days in February, the Eagles were by far the best team in the league.) Division II transfer Riley Minix has been a revelation, averaging 20.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game.
56. Akron Zips
NCAA seed: No. 14.
Say hello to Enrique Freeman, the nation’s leader in double doubles with 30 in 34 games. Virtually unrecruited out of Cleveland, the fifth-year senior heroically carried the Zips to the Dance by producing the following stats in a dramatic drive to the MAC tournament title: 23.7 points, 14 rebounds and three blocks per game. Akron might not have the offensive firepower to take down Creighton, but don’t count that its chances are greater than Zip. Coach John Groce has some March warlock in his past, having taken the Ohio Bobcats to the Sweet 16 and the second round in 2012 and ’10, respectively. In ’22 at Akron, he had UCLA on the ropes in the first round before the Bruins escaped in the final minutes. There have been crazier things to happen.
57. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
NCAA seed: No. 15.
How about some love for Steve Lutz? The former Matt Painter and Greg McDermott assistant has been a head coach for three seasons and earned three NCAA berths in one-bid leagues—two at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and now one with the Hilltoppers. This one came after closing the regular season with four straight losses, then reversing that with three CUSA tourney wins by an average of 19 points. Western turns the ball over a lot and doesn’t shoot particularly well, but this is a solid defensive team. If Marquette’s Kolek is still out, the Hilltoppers could cause at least some temporary Golden Eagle anxiety.
58. Long Beach State 49ers
NCAA seed: No. 15.
The worst defensive team in the Dance is one of the more interesting stories, with coach Dan Monson essentially being fired last week effective at the end of the season—then refusing to let the season end. Long Beach won the Big West tournament after losing its last five games of the regular season, taking down regular-season champ UC Irvine in the semifinals and No. 3 seed UC Davis in the final. It will take a miracle to beat Arizona with a group that gives up a lot of good shots and connects on only 31.3% of its threes—but Arizona has been known to facilitate miracles in the past. Dare to dream of Monson dancing on before his tenure ends.
59. Colgate Raiders
NCAA seed: No. 14.
The Raiders are another tourney regular, earning their fifth straight bid out of the Patriot League. They’re 17–1 since Jan. 10, winning the regular-season title for the third straight year as well. This is no portal team; it’s a homegrown roster under Matt Langel, which means it has extensive NCAA experience. (Well, as extensive as it gets with four consecutive first-round losses.) This Colgate team doesn’t have the offensive refinement of previous editions but did execute extremely well in the Patriot tourney inside the arc, making 65 of 99 two-point shots. Guard Braeden Smith (not to be confused with Purdue’s Braden Smith) averaged 16 points, nine rebounds and five assists in that tourney.
60. Oakland Grizzlies
NCAA seed: No. 14.
Greg Kampe has been the coach here for 40 years—he is the program. He’s taken the Grizzlies to the NCAA tourney three times, scaring the daylights out of a Tristan Thompson-led Texas team in 2011. The old veteran will take on Kentucky with little chance but also no fear, playing a loose style that relies on 6’6” Trey Townsend operating inside and ’18 high school graduate and Division II transfer Jack Gohlke bombing away from three. Oakland might be overwhelmed by Kentucky’s size—including three 7-footers—but if the Wildcats want to lapse into open-gym, defense-optional basketball, the Grizzlies could hit a lot of shots and keep it interesting.
61. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
NCAA seed: No. 15.
Beware the hot underdog? The Jacks roll into the Dance on an eight-game winning streak, winning both the Summit League regular-season and tournament titles. This South Dakota State team isn’t quite as much the precision offensive machine as previous seasons under Eric Henderson, but they still move the ball sharply, shoot it well and have four double-digit scorers. SDSU is also good on the defensive glass and avoids fouling. A significant unknown will be the mobility of guard Charlie Easley (12 points, 5.5 rebounds per game) after spraining an ankle in the Summit final. He’s expected to give it a go against Iowa State, but his effectiveness is to be determined.
62. Longwood Lancers
NCAA seed: No. 16.
It’s dance-by-committee for the Lancers, who have had four different leading scorers in their last four games—two of them dramatic wins over the Big South regular-season champion High Point Panthers. Griff Aldrich now has three straight 20-win seasons, but this one looked unlikely as recently as early February—Longwood had lost 10 out of 12 before winning seven of its last nine. Longwood turns the ball over frequently and doesn’t shoot well, which seems like a bad recipe for taking on Houston. The Lancers need to hope that whatever afflicted the Cougars in that blowout loss in the Big 12 title game is still a thing.
63. Saint Peter’s Peacocks
NCAA seed: No. 15.
The birds are back, with another 15 seed and another SEC opponent in their sights. Can they do unto Tennessee what they did unto Kentucky two years ago, sparking arguably the greatest Cinderella run in history? That seems like a lot to ask. Saint Peter’s is a horrible offensive team, ranking 305th nationally in efficiency and 349th in effective field goal percentage. But the Peacocks somehow put the ball in the basket often enough to win three MAAC tournament games by a total of nine points and punch their ticket. Saint Peter’s does guard well and create turnovers; maybe if Dalton Knecht has another 4-for-17 day like he did in the SEC tourney this gets interesting.
64. Stetson Hatters
NCAA seed: No. 16.
In his 14th season as a Division I head coach and at his third stop, Donnie Jones finally has a team in the bracket. The reward for Stetson’s first-ever NCAA berth is to be fed to defending national champion and overall No. 1 seed UConn. The Huskies have the most efficient offense in the nation and the Hatters have the No. 342 defense; what could go wrong? An avid three-point shooting team, maybe Stetson will be preposterously hot while the Huskies fail to take them seriously. Probably not.
65. Howard Bison
NCAA seed: No. 16.
Two straight Big Dances for Howard and coach Kenny Blakeney, this one perhaps less expected than last year. The Bison hit a groove late, winning four of their last five in the regular season and carrying that over to a MEAC tourney win. It’s one last curtain call for 26-year-old, eighth-year senior Seth Towns—yes, eight years. His career began in 2016 at Harvard, where he played two seasons and then took two medical redshirts. Then it was on to the Ohio State Buckeyes, where he played one season, had another medical redshirt and then voluntarily stepped away from the game last season. Now Howard’s second-leading scorer, Towns will end his endless college career in this tournament.
66. Montana State Bobcats
NCAA seed: No. 16.
They’re in the Big Dance for the third straight season after making it a total of three times previously in program history. So times are good in Bozeman heading into Wednesday's First Four game against Grambling. This particular team was a long shot to get here, having lost the coach and two star players to Utah State. After a 3–2 start to the season, the Bobcats haven’t had a winning record since—but they did climb to 17–17 in winning the Big Sky tourney. If you want a Cinderella fella to cheer for, check out Montana State big man John Olmsted. He’s a grad transfer from Arizona State whose stat line, across five years prior to March, was as follows: 41 career points, 60 career games. Come March, coach Matt Logie started giving Olmsted playing time. His averages in the last five games: 10.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists. He had a career-high 16 points in the Big Sky final.
67. Grambling State Tigers
NCAA seed: No. 16.
The Tigers are here for the first time ever, a long-awaited accomplishment for a program that has had good teams but never been able to take the last step. Last year was perhaps the most painful miss of all, when a 24–8 Grambling team lost by three points to the Texas Southern Tigers. Those two were matched up for the third straight year in the SWAC final this time, and the Tigers left no doubt. Grambling comes to Dayton having won nine of its last 10, with the only loss in double overtime. Guard Tra’Michael Moton, in his fifth year at Grambling and the team’s No. 2 scorer, has been a program rock for coach Donte Jackson.
Christopher Creveling/USA TODAY Sports
68. Wagner Seahawks
Hey, it’s been done before. Last year, in fact. Fairleigh Dickinson was the Northeast Conference bid winner, captured a play-in game in Dayton, then shocked the world by beating No. 1 seed Purdue. At No. 293 in the KenPom ratings, the Seahawks are even rated 19 spots higher than FDU was when it started play in the NCAA tournament. They’re a heinous shooting team with very little size, but Wagner did throw out a zone that paralyzed Merrimack in the NEC final. That probably says more about Merrimack than about the quality of the zone, but whatever—it got Wagner to this blessed spot in just its second year under coach Donald Copeland. Dare to repeat history, Seahawks.
