In every NCAA men’s tournament, one team blows up everyone’s brackets with a run for the ages. Last year, the Florida Atlantic Owls went on a magical four-game run to the Final Four, going from a 31-win mid-major team few knew much about to the stars of March. Meanwhile, the No. 15 seed Princeton Tigers rolled to the Sweet 16. Is there another sleeper that might capture the hearts of men’s college basketball fans this March?
Here’s a look at the 10 most dangerous double-digit seeds that might just be this year’s Cinderella … and could help you win your office pool in the process.
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1. James Madison Dukes (No. 12 seed, South Region)
The Dukes and the UConn Huskies are the only two teams in the nation with 31 wins, with JMU ripping through the Sun Belt en route to a 31–3 season that included a season-opening win at the Michigan State Spartans. Last season’s lone 31-win team in the regular season? Florida Atlantic, which went to the Final Four. And while it’d be unrealistic to expect the same type of run from Mark Byington’s team, James Madison does have a lot of the makings of a team that can make noise in the tournament. The Dukes take care of the ball at an elite level, run an efficient offense with a number of different weapons and feature a star in Terrence Edwards Jr. capable of playing anywhere in the country.
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Wisconsin comes in hot off of a strong run in the Big Ten tournament, but the Badgers are vulnerable, as evidenced by losing eight of 11 down the stretch. And a potential second-round date with the Duke Blue Devils also isn’t unwinnable, especially with how Duke looked vs. the NC State Wolfpack in the ACC tournament. Don’t be shocked to see JMU in the Sweet 16.
Related: South Region Breakdown: Top Two Seeds Houston and Marquette Have Strong Cases
2. New Mexico Lobos (No. 11 seed, West Region)
New Mexico may have finished sixth in the Mountain West regular season, but the Lobos feel like the most likely team from the conference to make a deep run in the Big Dance. Richard Pitino’s team was electrifying in the Mountain West tournament, winning four games in four days thanks to elite guard play and improved defense. Veteran shooting guard Jaelen House is the team’s emotional leader and was dominant all week in Las Vegas, averaging 23 points per game in the team’s four wins capped by 28 in the title game vs. the San Diego State Aztecs. Sophomore point guard Donovan Dent is dynamic, a force to be reckoned with in transition thanks to his speed and finishing ability. Plus, the Lobos have athletic bigs in JT Toppin and Nelly Junior Joseph to match up with bigger opponents.
First-round matchup Clemson might be able to keep the Lobos out of transition, but Toppin and Joseph give New Mexico the bodies to match up with PJ Hall and Ian Schieffelin on the interior. If House and Dent can outplay Joe Girard and Chase Hunter, the Lobos are in business.
Related: West Region Breakdown: North Carolina Earns Last No. 1 Seed But Has Hard Path
3. Grand Canyon Antelopes (No. 12 seed, West Region)
Bryce Drew has the Antelopes dancing for a third time in four years at the helm of this burgeoning mid-major powerhouse, and this may be the program’s best chance to win a game in the tournament. The Lopes dropped just four games all season, all by single digits, and logged impressive wins against San Diego State and the San Francisco Dons in the nonconference.
Plus, the draw is a favorable one. The Saint Mary’s Gaels are an excellent team, but certainly won’t overwhelm the Antelopes athletically. A potential second-round date with the Alabama Crimson Tide isn’t that scary either with how the Tide played down the stretch.
If GCU can make a run, a big reason why will likely be wing Tyon Grant-Foster, who has one of the best stories of any player in college hoops. Grant-Foster starred in junior college, spent a year as a bench player with the Kansas Jayhawks, then missed nearly two years after collapsing due to cardiac arrest during his first game with the DePaul Blue Demons in November 2021. He returned to action this season and has blossomed into a superstar, averaging nearly 20 points per game this season.
Related: March Madness: Forty Things to Watch in the 2024 NCAA Men’s Tournament
4. Drake Bulldogs (No. 10 seed, East Region)
Few teams were left with a more bitter taste in their mouths last March than Drake, which led a Miami Hurricanes team that went on to the Final Four 55–47 with five minutes to go in the first round before surrendering a 16–1 game-closing run to get sent home early. But the Bulldogs are back in March Madness and might be poised for a run this time. Tucker DeVries will be the best player on the floor in a lot of matchups this March, and the Bulldogs should have a friendly atmosphere playing in Omaha against the Washington State Cougars in the first round. Get through that one, and Drake gets a crack at in-state rival Iowa State Cyclones. One thing Drake is elite at is taking care of the ball, a must against the Cyclones.
Related: ‘We Have an Angel’: The Emotion of Drake’s Win for the DeVries Family
5. Samford Bulldogs (No. 13 seed, Midwest Region)
Picking against Bill Self and Kansas in the first round has traditionally been a bracket no-no. Kansas hasn’t lost in the first round since 2006, winning two national championships and reaching four Final Fours since. But this season’s Kansas team at least feels vulnerable, entering the Big Dance on a low after losing four of five to close the season and dealing with a rash of injuries to star players Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson.
While it seems likely the Jayhawks’ top players will give it a go, they may not be 100% healthy, and that’s a scary thought against a Samford team that is deep, athletic and presses all 40 minutes of the game. Maybe Bucky McMillan’s team can simply wear out a Kansas group that barely uses its bench and doesn’t have a ton of capable ballhandlers.
Related: Midwest Region Breakdown: Can Purdue Finally Break Through?
6. UAB Blazers (No. 12 seed, East Region)
UAB needed the American’s automatic bid to go dancing but could make some noise now that it’s in the field. The Blazers boast terrific size and athleticism across the point, starting with dynamic point guard Eric Gaines and flowing through Andy Kennedy’s entire roster. Most importantly, the Blazers have the size and depth in the frontcourt to try to slow down San Diego State star big man Jaedon LeDee, one of the most imposing post presences in the country. Manage LeDee, and you have a chance to beat the Aztecs.
Plus, we already know UAB can hang with big, physical teams. The Blazers beat the Maryland Terrapins and lost a heartbreaker to the Clemson Tigers in November, knocked off a very good Drake team in December and beat the Memphis Tigers and FAU in AAC play. Consistency hasn’t always been there, but in a one-off situation, the Blazers could be dangerous.
Related: East Region Breakdown: Auburn Could Stand in UConn’s Way
7. McNeese State Cowboys (No. 12 seed, Midwest Region)
Former LSU Tigers coach Will Wade has quickly built McNeese State into a powerhouse, winning 30 games in his first year on the job to send the Cowboys to the Big Dance for the first time since 2002. Simply put, McNeese’s talent level far exceeds that of most low- and mid-major teams. Star guard Shahada Wells was previously a rotation piece at TCU, big man Christian Shumate is a high-major athlete and other key cogs like DJ Richards Jr., Mike Saunders Jr. and Javohn Garcia all could easily play at a higher level. They won’t be overwhelmed athletically against the Gonzaga Bulldogs, and Wells can easily get hot and beat a team.
Plus, having Wade on the sideline gives the Cowboys an edge. He won an NCAA tournament game with the VCU Rams and had multiple high-level teams in the SEC. He’d be on a high-major sideline still if not for the sanctions he was hit with for recruiting violations in Baton Rouge. Is he outcoaching Mark Few? Probably not, but Wade certainly won’t be intimidated by coaching against one of the sport’s greats.
8. Morehead State Eagles (No. 14 seed, East Region)
Morehead may come from the Ohio Valley Conference, but the Eagles have high-major size to match up with the Illinois Fighting Illini. Preston Spradlin’s club is an elite two-point defense thanks to having bigger, physical guards who stop drives and athletic bigs in Dieonte Miles and Riley Minix who can protect the rim. That should scare Illinois some given how much the Illini rely on Brad Underwood’s “booty ball”—using its bigger guards like Marcus Domask to back down defenders and create mismatches as a result. Morehead’s guards are big enough to play one-on-one in those situations. The big matchup question is how effectively Illinois can pull Miles away from the rim with Coleman Hawkins as a stretch five, but otherwise, Morehead has a decent matchup here. Plus, the Eagles take and make a lot of threes, a good recipe for a high-variance single elimination setting.
9. Duquesne Dukes (No. 11 seed, East Region)
The draw for Duquesne isn’t ideal, with an underseeded BYU Cougars team first and then a potential date with Illinois in the second round to get out of the first weekend. But Duquesne is a great example of a team playing its best basketball at the right time. The Dukes started 9–8 and 0–5 in the Atlantic 10, but have since surged to 15 wins in their final 18 games, including four victories in the A-10 tournament to punch a ticket to March Madness for the first time in nearly five decades. Duquesne is deep (eight players played 15-plus minutes in the A-10 title game), old (four of five starters are fifth-years or older) and features two dynamic guards in Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III who can really fill it up. That’s a good March recipe.
10. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (No. 15 seed, South Region)
There’s always one Cinderella no one sees coming. Each of the past three seasons, a No. 15 seed has taken down a No. 2, and if there’s one that can do it this year, it might just be Western Kentucky. Coach Steve Lutz has the Hilltoppers dancing in his first year on the job, and his team has the type of offensive firepower that makes them a scary matchup for No. 2 seed Marquette. Plus, the Golden Eagles might be a bit more vulnerable than usual with star point guard Tyler Kolek coming off an oblique injury.
Teams that play as fast as the Hilltoppers have traditionally not been the best long shot bet, but WKU might be an exception. Guard Don McHenry is elite at creating his own shot and is capable of taking over a game with his scoring ability. Plus, WKU has high-major size and athleticism in Rodney Howard (Georgia Tech), Dontaie Allen (Kentucky) and Brandon Newman (Purdue), and the Hilltoppers have defended well for a team that plays fast. If WKU can take care of the ball against Marquette’s disruptive defense, it might have a shot.
