Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Leeds Live
Leeds Live
Sport
Joe Donnohue

Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds United hunch rings true as violent Manchester United swing exposed

Leeds United took more shots, created more chances, won more tackles and completed more passes than their arch-rivals Manchester United on Sunday afternoon, but found themselves on the losing side.

Marcelo Bielsa made a telling comment in his post-match press conference, which somewhat explained why Leeds were left with nothing to show for their efforts.

"They missed very few chances but they were very efficient," the 66-year-old said.

"And we were less efficient - and the difference comes through them. We had seven or eight chances to score a goal just like the opponent but they scored in a higher proportion and us not in the same proportion."

Ultimately, Leeds were undone by Manchester United's ruthlessness and efficiency in the final third - a similar story to their 5-1 defeat at Old Trafford last August.

Earlier this season, Man United scored five against Leeds from an Expected Goals total of 1.27, as per InfoGol.

Yesterday, the Red Devils netted four with an xG value worth 2.10.

Over the course of those two matches, Man United would ordinarily have been expected to score three goals, based on the quality of their chances - instead they racked up nine.

There are reasons for this: firstly, 'Expected Goals' is an average, meaning above average sides - like Ralf Rangnick's men - with above average attacking players, are capable of scoring goals less talented players would not typically convert.

Such a violent swing in Man United's favour, though, suggests they were ruthlessly efficient in both matches, as well as a tad fortunate.

On the day, Jadon Sancho's cool-headedness amidst a flurry of yellow cards, sliding tackles and at times bog-like conditions, was the difference in key moments.

His clipped cross found Bruno Fernandes' head for Man United's second goal on the stroke of half-time, while the presence of mind to lay the ball off to fresh-legged Fred who powered home a third for the visitors sapped the momentum Leeds had generated following their second half goal rush.

There will be no quick fix, but Bielsa's acknowledgement in his post-match press conference that the team have already conceded 50 goals this season suggests he is aware of the issues at the back.

That said, there is an argument that this season Leeds have been the 'unluckiest' Premier League side when it comes to conceding goals.

Leeds United have conceded six more goals than their Expected Goals Against (xGA) total this season (Data: InfoGol)

As per InfoGol data, Leeds' Expected Goals Against (xGA) suggests the Whites should have conceded six goals fewer than their actual half-century tally.

This is to say that Leeds should not have conceded 50 goals, but 44 instead, based on the quality of their opponents' goalscoring chances.

As seen in the above table, teams with an xGA difference highlighted in green are typically 'luckier' or better at goalkeeping, than those coloured in red.

That doesn't necessarily mean Illan Meslier has performed poorly, it could be a reflection of above-average finishing like Manchester United's against Leeds this season.

Typically, actual goals conceded and xG conceded tend to marry up quite closely. This means, Leeds may be in for a spot of luck in their fixtures to come, with opponents not converting high-value chances.

With Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur on the calendar over the course of the next six days, that would not go amiss.

The Whites' next appointment in the Premier League is a rescheduled trip to Anfield on Wednesday evening.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.