With a market cap of $49.5 billion, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading independent refiner, transporter, and marketer of petroleum products in the United States. The company operates through two main segments: Refining & Marketing, which focuses on refining crude oil and distributing fuel products, and Midstream, which manages transportation and logistics for crude oil, natural gas, and refined products.
Shares of the oil refining specialist have underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. MPC stock has declined 9.3% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 23.5%. However, shares of MPC are up 10.5% on a YTD basis, outperforming SPX's nearly 4% gain.
Looking closer, the Findlay, Ohio-based company has lagged behind the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLE) 7.6% return over the past 52 weeks.
Shares of Marathon Petroleum climbed 6.7% on Feb. 4 due to its stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings, driven by outperformance in the Midstream segment. The company reported an adjusted profit of $0.77 per share, significantly beating analysts' expectations despite a sharp decline in refining margins. Investors were also encouraged by the company's continued capital returns, including $1.6 billion in shareholder distributions and $7.8 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization. Additionally, Marathon's 2025 capital spending plans, particularly its $1.3 billion investment in key refineries and $2 billion for midstream growth, signaled confidence.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect MPC's EPS to dip 12.8% year-over-year to $8.47. However, the company's earnings surprise history is promising. It beat the consensus estimates in the last four quarters.
Among the 18 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 12 “Strong Buy” ratings and six “Holds.”
On Feb. 5, Wells Fargo analyst Roger Read raised Marathon Petroleum’s price target to $183, maintaining an “Overweight” rating. The firm highlighted MPC’s ability to navigate tariffs and renewable policy uncertainties, along with a favorable long-term macroeconomic outlook.
As of writing, MPC is trading below the mean price target of $173.11. The Street-high price target of $221 implies a potential upside of 43.4%.
