Valued at a market cap of $40.9 billion, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is an integrated downstream energy company that refines, transports and markets petroleum products. The Findlay, Ohio-based company distributes its products through an extensive logistics system managed by its majority-owned subsidiary, MPLX LP, which includes pipelines, terminals, and marine operations. It is scheduled to announce its fiscal Q1 earnings for 2025 before the market opens on Tuesday, May 6.
Ahead of this event, analysts expect this energy company to report a loss of $0.62 per share, down 122.3% from a profit of $2.78 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company has a promising trajectory of consistently beating Wall Street’s earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. In Q4 2024, MPC’s EPS of $0.77 outpaced the forecasted figure significantly.
For fiscal 2025, analysts expect MPC to report a profit of $7.28 per share, down 25% from $9.71 in fiscal 2024. Nevertheless, its EPS is expected to rebound in fiscal 2026 and grow by 56% year over year to $11.36.
Shares of MPC have declined 32.7% over the past 52 weeks, considerably lagging behind both the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 6% gain, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLE) 15.5% loss over the same time frame.
On Feb. 4, shares of MPC gained 6.7% after its Q4 earnings release. While the company’s adjusted net income declined 80.7% from the year-ago quarter to $0.77 per share, it surpassed analysts’ expectations by a staggering significant margin, which likely boosted investor confidence. The midstream segment performed well, with its adjusted EBITDA rising 8.7% to $1.7 billion, driven by higher rates, increased volumes, and recent acquisitions. Additionally, its renewable diesel segment posted an adjusted EBITDA of $28 million, reversing a $47 million loss recorded in the previous year's quarter, further adding to the uptick. However, on the downside, its total revenue declined 9.1% year-over-year to $33.5 billion, mainly due to lower sales and operating revenues.
Wall Street analysts are moderately optimistic about MPC’s stock, with a "Moderate Buy" rating overall. Among 18 analysts covering the stock, 12 recommend "Strong Buy," and six suggest “Hold.” The mean price target for MPC is $160.50, which indicates a 19.5% potential upside from the current levels.
On the date of publication, Neharika Jain did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
