What will it be for Scotland: a 21st century utopia of greener living, or a dystopia of dysfunctioning services and grim places to live?
It will be the choices that our planners, politicians and communities make in the coming years that will determine the outcome.
But it will also require systemic change in all kinds of infrastructure to ensure that everyone can enjoy these smart cities of the future. In all of this, business must bring innovation and best practice from around the globe.
Scotland’s cities - Glasgow, Edinburgh, Stirling, Perth, Dundee, Aberdeen and Inverness - and their city regions - which include the likes of Paisley, East Kilbride, Falkirk and Livingston, Dunfermline and Cumbernauld - are home to the vast majority of Scottish people.
The conurbations, created and populated in Victorian times, are facing massive funding challenges, while a revolution in retail habits has turned once thriving high streets into abandoned streetscapes.
Television programmes show glamorous features of the Middle Eastern ‘miracles’ of high-rise Dubai, the transformation of colonial outposts such as Singapore, and seemingly-orderly Skandi communities in Denmark, Sweden and Norway, while central Scotland is struggling to meet the demands of housing its population and retro-fitting homes to meet the goals of decarbonisation.
It is clear that technology is changing every aspect of how our cities run and develop. Smart cities use technology to optimise resources and increase efficiency, influencing operations such as transport, water, power and sanitation.
The changing face of our cities was apparent even before Covid-19 and our city centres face a series of challenges to thrive into the future.
“The impact of the pandemic has had a major impact on our cities and how we see these functioning in the future,” stated Stuart Hall, director of Glasgow-based property firm Kingsmead Developments. “Once the worst effects of the current outbreak have passed, people will naturally be keen to see a return to normal as we are naturally social beings.
“While the immediate danger of Covid will dissipate, our attitudes towards the threat posed by viruses are now forever planted in our collective psyche - this will affect how we live our lives, in particular how we engage in large gatherings of people - the question is what the new normal will be and what role our cities will play in that?”
He sees a split in our responses: “For some, this means our cities will play a less important role in business and personal lives, [with people] preferring to work and socialise more locally... for others, the city will continue to be a major draw given the opportunities for employment, leisure, culture and all the historic benefits of city living.”
Clare Foster, head of clean energy at Shepherd and Wedderburn, also sees these changes becoming permanent. “It seems unlikely we will see a full return to a pre-pandemic way of life and cities, and the people and businesses located there, are having to adapt accordingly.
“But we shouldn’t forget that the transition in a city’s context actually started before Covid-19 became part of our everyday lives.”
In 2019, Scotland declared a climate emergency and a statutory target of net zero by 2045 was enshrined in legislation. Also in 2019, the cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow each declared a climate emergency, together with an even more ambitious target to reach net zero by 2030. “To achieve this, major, fundamental change was required,” noted Foster.
Glasgow saw the official opening in December of the city’s first net zero carbon office building. The 94,000 sq ft, Grade A Cadworks on Cadogan Street used concrete that contains no cement, a pioneering paint that removes greenhouse gases from the air and kills most viruses, as well as on-site electricity generation via solar panels.
Basil Demeroutis, managing partner of investor and developer FORE Partnership, said: “We have always believed real estate forms part of our ‘urban system’, and that system exists to serve basic human needs, from the essentials like shelter and protection, to social needs, and ultimately at the highest level, fulfilment, self-actualisation and happiness.
“The pandemic has caused a shock to this system and we have become more aware of these basic needs than ever.
“We are moving from a purely transactional economy to an experience economy where we value the things we do more than the things we have... and ultimately towards a transformational economy, where we value most the things that have the ability to improve and empower us, in a true post-consumer sense.”
So the 'experience economy' is where we value things that can be shared on social media, such as travelling or bungee-jumping, while the transformation economy is those things that have the power to improve us, such as learning a new skill, improving our emotional wellbeing, or putting personal achievement over material possessions.
“These key, sociological shifts are essential to understand as they have a huge influence on the kinds of spaces our cities need to provide - ultimately, cities need to move beyond even providing experiences to become a stage on which this transformation economy can play out,” added Demeroutis.
Gina Colley of Threesixty Architecture in Glasgow, and a winner of the British Council for Offices’ ‘Rising Star’ award, is unequivocal: “Now is the time for change - as we gradually return to in-person working, it’s crucial to consider how we rebuild structures that have fuelled inequalities in the world of work.
“We can do this with inclusive, community-focused strategies that make workplaces more local and accessible to diverse groups and by removing some of the barriers associated with city-centre working, such as inaccessible and costly public transport or inaccessible buildings and pedestrian areas.
“These strategies create access to a wider talent pool, a critical consideration for many sectors suffering from skills shortages, and promote a more diverse representation of society in the workforce, proven to increase innovation and business performance.
“Access to local workplaces would improve people’s work-life balance by reducing commute time, alleviating the time-poverty often experienced by women who are still generally responsible for caring work in addition to their paid work.”
Changes have already begun. Paul Winstanley is chief executive at Glasgow-based not-for-profit centre CENSIS, set up to support private and public-sector organisations accelerate innovation through Internet of Things (IoT) technologies.
“There are a broad range of smart cities initiatives under way in Scotland’s three main conurbations,” he explained, with programmes in Glasgow, CGI leading projects in Edinburgh, and Aberdeen announcing the launch of intelligent street lighting,” he said. “One of the initiatives we are involved in relates to electric vehicle (EV) charging points, looking at accessibility and availability to help drivers plan their journey more effectively.
“The project has two aspects - the first is looking at the use of EVs by social-care staff employed by local authorities, how they can be used and, more specifically, how they can be charged effectively at home - for this, staff ideally need to access an alternative electrical distribution network which is billed directly to the local authority.
“The other aspect is the standardisation of pricing at EV chargers,” Winstanley continued. “There is a complex commercial landscape behind EV charging points and a lot of variation in price, by as much as a factor of seven in some cases.
“We are exploring how a system similar to roaming between service providers on mobile phone networks might be applied, allowing drivers to pay what they would at home wherever they decide to recharge their EV.”
Glasgow is changing the physical realm too, according to John Meehan, a partner and head of commercial property at law firm Harper Macleod. “The £120m ‘Avenues’ programme by Glasgow City Council has already delivered a pleasant tree-lined pedestrian precinct with cycle lanes at the western end of Sauchiehall Street.
“That people-friendly environment for living and socialising is encouraging our developer clients to repurpose the sandstone tenement offices and other office blocks in and around Blythswood Square.
“By 2028, a further 20-plus streets and surrounding public realms should have benefited from the same halo effect and help the city keep pace with the increased demand for private rented sector accommodation.
“However, to recapture the city’s vibrancy, private developers and the public sector need to offer low rents, grants and rates reliefs to incentivise a variety of new uses of ground-floor properties as part of a city community.”
Changes already occurring, in turn, demonstrate that they cannot happen in isolation.
“What is clear is that net-zero is only achievable with a societal paradigm shift,” said Mark Stewart, partner and head of energy, infrastructure and sustainability at accountancy firm Johnston Carmichael. “Behavioural change is required by governments, business and individuals alike.”
He added: “In the cities of tomorrow, infrastructure and public services must be more efficient and environmentally friendly and accessible to all - they will optimise resources, reduce waste, consumption and costs, enhance the quality of life of its inhabitants and reduce the ecological footprint of the city.”
Desired changes, though, can have undesired consequences, such as increasing inequality, warned Steve Cassidy, co-founder of Edinburgh transport consultancy Sympatric. “There is much talk about the death of the high street, and there is no doubt that central areas can and will be attractive; but they will have to re-form.
“For example, there is a movement for ex-department stores to move to mixed use, providing a range of work and leisure activities.
“But think timescale - people do still want traditional shopping - I thought Edinburgh's revamped St James would be a white elephant and it doesn’t appear to be; the retail brands present have a strong attraction and the location is very accessible.”
Online access and remote working offer flexibility for those able to take advantage. “Therein lies the rub: the danger is that new models merely reinforce division in society,” noted Cassidy. “There is a real requirement to ensure that any so-called ‘smart’ intervention - be it smart cities, smart mobility, smart workplaces - provide real value to all parts of society.”
Retail is already having to reposition itself, stated Alastair Wallace, senior partner at construction and property consultancy Thomas & Adamson. “Big retail parks have big land banks around them; can they do something with what were previously identified as expansion zones for their malls?
“Can they start to move into the residential sector? Can they put build-to-rent or private rented sector on these sites? It might mean taking a big anchor store and making it several smaller stores, or maybe taking big anchor stores and repositioning them as hotels.”
Clean, connected, compact and zero-carbon cities will rest on how land is organised and used.
“The pandemic has allowed people to look at the issues and challenges that cities face with a completely new perspective,” said Foster, “where home working is no longer the exception, commuting has decreased dramatically and many office blocks are sitting empty and shopping locally and online is often regarded as a more prudent option.
“Various cities across Scotland are rising to this challenge and across the country, both public and private sectors are grappling with how best to effect a transition to a cleaner, more sustainable and inclusive future for citizens and businesses.”
She added: “A good example of progress is the Edinburgh Climate Compact, the ground-breaking, city-wide platform for leading business and employer collaboration on climate change in Edinburgh.”
Property developer Hall sees hybrid working becoming standard with a split between office and home. “The hybrid model will allow businesses either to use space differently or reduce spatial requirements, potentially creating happier working environments or freeing up capital to invest elsewhere.
”The reduced pressure on infrastructure could allow cities to ‘green up’ to create a more pedestrian and cycle-friendly environment.”
As an architect, Colley concluded that: “Research tells us living in close proximity to derelict and vacant buildings has a negative impact on mental health.
”The opposite is possible if we create thriving, active and diverse high streets, introducing new uses to built assets - adaptive reuse of existing buildings is a highly sustainable approach rather than building new.”
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