Tropical Cyclone Alfred has intensified to Category 2 and is barrelling towards Australia’s eastern coast, threatening to be one of the most destructive storms for the region.
Authorities are warning of damaging winds, heavy rain, storm surges, and coastal erosion, with landfall expected late Thursday or early Friday north of Brisbane.
On Tuesday, Alfred was 600km east of the Queensland-New South Wales border, taking a sudden turn westward after several days of southeast movement.
“Tropical Cyclone Alfred has just changed direction and is now heading towards the QLD Coast,” the premier, David Crisafulli, said on Tuesday evening on social media.
“We’re prepared for this weather event and we’re asking Queenslanders to do the same.
“Be prepared and stay informed.”
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said the storm will maintain Category 2 strength, with winds of 100kmph and gusts up to 150kmph when it reaches the coast.
The cyclone could still shift slightly, but the most likely landfall area is between Bribie Island and Noosa, with gale-force winds expected to develop within 24 hours.
Authorities say rainfall and flooding will be the most significant threat, with 300-600mm of rain expected in some areas and localised totals reaching 700mm.
Flood watches are in effect from Bundaberg to Port Macquarie, and Brisbane City Council has warned that 20,000 homes could be impacted by flooding.
Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner has urged residents in flood-prone areas, including Nudgee Beach, Brighton, Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside, and Rocklea, to consider relocating before the storm arrives.
“Properties could experience anything from mild inundation in their yards to significant flooding in their homes,” he said.
The strongest winds will be felt near and south of landfall, particularly in Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and inland regions of northern New South Wales.
Gale-force winds are expected to increase from Wednesday, with destructive gusts up to 150kmph possible in elevated areas.
Coastal regions are bracing for storm surges up to 0.8m above the highest astronomical tide, particularly in Moreton Bay, Bribie Island, and the Gold Coast. Waves could reach 10 meters, leading to severe erosion and dangerous surf conditions.
Tropical cyclone warnings cover areas from Double Island Point to Yamb, while Flood watches and severe weather warnings have been issued for large parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales.
The storm has already caused public transport disruptions, school closures, and prompted evacuation advisories with many voluntarily leaving their houses.
Airlines including Qantas, Jetstar, and Virgin Australia have announced free flight changes for passengers flying to or from affected airports.
“We’re closely monitoring Tropical Cyclone Alfred. If your flight is impacted, we’ll notify you by SMS,” Qantas said in a statement.
Emergency services have begun door-knocking flood-prone areas in the Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay, and Brisbane Bay regions to warn residents of the impending storm.
Experts say that Cyclone Alfred’s unusually southward track could be a sign of climate crisis.
Associate Professor Iftekhar Ahmed from the University of Newcastle warns that Alfred is heading further south than cyclones normally do.
“Cyclone Alfred is predicted to impact northern NSW, which is generally not an area at risk. The last cyclone warning here was more than 50 years ago. This could indicate that, due to global warming, the reach of tropical cyclones is extending further than the tropics.”
Dr Tom Mortlock from Aon notes that warmer ocean temperatures are fueling storms further south, with sea surface temperatures warm enough to sustain cyclones down to Sydney.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to intensify further on Wednesday before making landfall late Thursday or early Friday.
Residents in southeast Queensland and northern NSW are being urged to secure properties, prepare emergency kits, and follow evacuation advice as conditions deteriorate.
Authorities warn that once the cyclone hits, emergency services may not be able to reach people in danger, making early action crucial.
