For the fourth season running, there will only be one team from Manchester in the draw for the quarter-finals of the Champions League - and they don't play in red. Manchester United suffered a 1-0 loss at home to Atletico Madrid on Tuesday, meaning that they have now not won a home knockout tie in the competition since 2014. On the other side of the city, Manchester City are safely through to the last-eight after overcoming Sporting Lisbon 5-0 on aggregate. Pep Guardiola's side will be in the pot for Friday's draw, and could well come up against Diego Simeone's Atleti.
If the Blues do get paired with the Champions League runners-up of 2014 and 2016, what should City fans expect? One thing is for certain, and that is that it wouldn't be an easy tie. Atletico have been far from their best this season; after winning La Liga last term, their usual defensive resoluteness has deserted them while up front they have struggled to consistently create chances. Given that they are 15 points behind league leaders Real Madrid and were eliminated from the Copa del Rey at the round of 16 stage, the Champions League represents their only chance of silverware this season.
But as was evident at Old Trafford on Tuesday, something inside Atletico, a crucial part of the club's identity, has been recovered in recent weeks. Los Colchoneros have struck a vein of excellent form, and look to be back to their battling, snarling best. After losing three consecutive league games in December and exiting both the Supercopa and the Copa del Rey in the space of one week in January, Atletico are now on a run of five wins in six, the 1-1 draw with United last month their sole failure to win in a game they largely dominated. During that run, they have scored 12 goals but perhaps more tellingly, they have only conceded three.
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The old stereotype is that Atletico play to their solid and no-nonsense defence but with 10 league games still to play, the 36 goals they have conceded is more than they have surrendered in any of the past nine seasons. The loss of key figures like Diego Godin can be partially blamed but ultimately they just haven't played well.
Against United, though, they were back to their best. Former City man Stefan Savic led the back five superbly and when United cranked the pressure up towards the end, every Atleti player got behind the ball in a well-drilled formation. They afforded such little space between the lines that United resorted to swinging in optimistic crosses that goalkeeper Jan Oblak dealt with easily.
City should beware that kind of low-block; they have struggled to break down the likes of Southampton, Tottenham and Everton in recent times. But Guardiola's men would also have to keep their cool in the face of the Atletico gamesmanship which would undoubtedly come their way.
It should be noted that it was Simeone's Atleti that eliminated Guardiola's Bayern Munich in the 2016 semi-finals. Bayern dominated the second leg at home, winning 2-1, but couldn't score a third and went out on away goals. It's one of the defeats that has hurt Pep the most in his career. During the final 30 minutes at Old Trafford, the ball was in play for a meagre 11 minutes and 19 seconds. Given how City like to keep possession ticking over, you can imagine Simeone's time-wasting tactics driving Guardiola spare.
On the other hand, Atletico might not represent a bad draw for the Blues. The task of trying to prise a way through Atleti's once-again rigid defence would surely be preferable to engaging in breathless shoot-outs with Liverpool or Bayern Munich or coming up against the majestic talents of Karim Benzema and Luka Modric at Real Madrid.
Atletico are in good form but there are ways to disrupt their play - La Liga strugglers Cadiz, spearheaded by former City striker Alvaro Negredo, controlled the midfield in the pair's recent meeting, even if Atleti did win 2-1. City would surely have no issue doing similar. In the opening 20 minutes of Tuesday's win, Atletico struggled to escape United's pressing, similarly to how City struggled in the early stages of the recent Manchester derby. The likes of Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva would surely give them an even tougher time.
Of course, City will face a tough test whoever they draw in the next round. A first-ever meeting with Atletico would be fascinating, a challenge no doubt but a winnable one.
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