The sprint to the finish line begins in earnest on Sunday for Manchester United, with the possibility of 19 games in 63 days and two more trophies to mark a memorable first season under Erik ten Hag.
Supporters will be eyeing up those dates in Budapest (May 31) and at Wembley (June 3) for the Europa League and FA Cup finals, but for those beyond the scenes at Old Trafford, the remaining 12 Premier League games might feel like United's most important.
A reminder of how it feels to win silverware has been welcome this season and Ten Hag has done an outstanding job in his first campaign, but the priority was always a return to the Champions League and on Thursday we got a reminder of why.
READ MORE: Why United net debt has risen and revenues have fallen
As one club figure explained when the financial results for the second quarter, to December 31, 2022, were released, "had we been in the Champions League, revenues this season would have been at record levels."
You've probably already grasped that the keyword in that sentence is the first one. Had. United aren't in the Champions League after finishing sixth last season.
Instead, they are playing on Thursday nights. The standard has been easier but the latest accounts showed a 32% fall in broadcast revenue, attributable to the difference between the Champions League and the Europa League. That amount to a £28million fall over the three months from October 1 to December 31, which would equate to perhaps around £100million across a season.
What it does show is the value of being in Europe's premier competition, however. That nine-figure sum is the cost of missing out on the Champions League, even if you manage the consolation prize of European football. These are astronomical figures, even accounting for the drop in wages that comes with a failure to secure a seat at Europe's top table.
United remain on course to post a revenue of between £590million and £610million this financial year, but with the bonus of Champions League football they predict that would have surpassed their record of £627million.
They actually managed to post a profit of £6.3million for the latest quarter, but that was thanks to a commercial uptick of 22%, primarily down to the training kit deal with Tezos. There are only so many rabbits that can be pulled out of a hat.
These figures spell out the need for Ten Hag's team to avoid any slip-ups in terms of securing a top-four finish between now and the end of the season. With the club treading a fine line when it comes to financial fair play requirements, that £100million or so extra that the Champions League produces in TV money, as well as the commercial bonuses that come with that status, are absolutely essential.
Last summer's unprecedented spending spree meant United could only operate in the cut-price loan market in January. They will spend again in the summer, but the shackles would be loosened if Champions League football was on the agenda.
If that looked unlikely after the 4-0 defeat at Brentford in mid-August, it looks very likely now. Analytics model FiveThirtyEight put United's chances of finishing in the top four at 74%. It's a sign of how well the previous 24 games have gone that the same model had United's chances of qualifying for the Champions League at just 9% after they lost to Brighton and Brentford in the first two games of the season.
Win at Newcastle on Sunday and that 74% would surely rise significantly. United are three points ahead of Eddie Howe's side, but would fall below them if Newcastle win at the weekend due to goal difference. They have a one-point advantage over Tottenham but also have two games in hand.
The finale to the campaign also includes a trip to play Spurs on April 27. Judging how they will finish the season in the wake of Antonio Conte's departure is difficult given the chaos surrounding them at the moment.
United have put themselves in a strong position in the league. Enjoy a good April and they might be in a position to take their foot off the gas in May, concentrating on the cups. But any sign of a wobble in the league will see a few jitters at Old Trafford.
Champions League football next season is a necessity. On and off the pitch.
READ NEXT:
