Manchester City are heading for their lowest Premier League points tally of the Pep Guardiola era – and the stats show they could miss out on Europe altogether.
It’s been a torrid run of form lately for the Premier League champions. City went from topping the table after nine games to picking up just one win in six.
Across all competitions, they have only been victorious once in their last ten fixtures. Their latest defeat was a 2-0 loss to Juventus in the Champions League, but it’s on the domestic front where things are even more worrying.
With Pep Guardiola under more pressure than he’s ever felt in his managerial career, we’ve examined where City’s current form might leave them at the end of the season.
Manchester City’s Lowest Points Tally Under Guardiola
Since taking over at the Etihad in 2016/17, Pep Guardiola has been incredible for Manchester City.
The Catalan manager has led them to an incredible six Premier League titles in eight seasons.
Since coming third in his debut campaign, City have either finished first or second every year under Pep.
But this season, City have taken just 27 points from 15 games. If they maintained this ratio until the end of the campaign, they would end up with 68 points – their lowest tally since 2015/16.
Manchester City Points Tally Under Pep
- 24/25 – 68* (Projected)
- 23/24 – 91
- 22/23 – 89
- 21/22 – 93
- 20/21 – 86
- 19/20 – 81
- 18/19 – 98
- 17/18 – 100
- 16/17 – 78
- 15/16 – 66 (Before Guardiola)
As the stats show, City are on course for their lowest points tally of the Pep Guardiola era.
But what’s worse is that the history books show they might not qualify for Europe at all – something unthinkable even just a few weeks ago.
Could Manchester City Miss Out On Europe?
While still unlikely, there is a growing possibility that City could miss out on the Champions League.
They are currently occupying the fourth and final qualification spot, though Premier League teams may be given a fifth place depending on England’s UEFA coefficient at the end of this year’s competition.
But while City are in the top four at the moment, their form could see them slip further down the table.
If they were to finish on 68 points as projected, there is no guarantee of European football at all, never mind Champions League qualification.
Where Teams On 68 Points Would Have Finished In The Premier League
- 23/24 – 4th
- 22/23 – 5th
- 21/22 – 6th
- 20/21 – 4th
- 19/20 – 3rd
- 18/19 – 6th
- 17/18 – 6th
- 16/17 – 7th
- 15/16 – 4th
- 14/15 – 5th
Over the past ten seasons, 68 points was only good enough for a top four finish four times.
While a season in the Europa League would be less than ideal, it could get even worse for City.
In 2016/17, 68 points would only have been good enough for seventh place. There are numerous scenarios and permutations surrounding exactly who qualifies for the three different European competitions, but seventh often misses out.
Last season, Newcastle United finished seventh and did not qualify for Europe due to Manchester United finishing eighth but winning the FA Cup.
How Bad Could It Get For City?
The suggestion that City could not even qualify for the Conference League is a bold one, but that is still not the worst case scenario.
Our projection of 68 points is based on every result so far this season, including City’s opening nine games in which they won seven and remained unbeaten.
If we take their form over the last six games since they started their bad run, things start to look even worse.
With four points from their last six, City’s recent form is on par with teams fighting relegation.
If they carry on averaging 0.66 points per game as they have done, they would finish the season on a scarcely believable 42 points.
Of course, we don’t expect their form to stay this bad forever, but this calculation illustrates just how awful the champions have been since their loss at Bournemouth on 2 November.
Pep needs to steady the ship quickly, or he may be out of a job sooner than planned.
