Football is such a strange game sometimes. A team can have, say, the same number of shots in two different matches and have a vastly different total of goals to show for their efforts when the full-time whistle blows.
Liverpool appear hellbent on proving this idea correct in 2022/23. To use a very specific example, they have had two league games this season in which they had exactly eight shots on target. One of them ended 0-0 at Goodison Park, the other saw them put seven goals past Manchester United.
If we look at the 17 other instances of a team having that many attempts on target in a Premier League game in 2022/23, none of them failed to score nor netted seven times. Yet for the Reds, this sort of thing is rare but not without precedent.
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Jurgen Klopp’s side also scored seven out of their eight on-target efforts at Crystal Palace in 2020/21. Following their rampant display against United last weekend, Liverpool will hope history does not repeat itself, as they scored once and took just three points from their next five matches after their Selhurst Park goal-fest.
As they face Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal following their trip to Bournemouth this weekend, a downturn in their attacking output is not entirely unlikely. However, their efforts against their fierce rivals from Old Trafford have helped them go past City for shots on target, a rare occurrence since Pep Guardiola arrived in England.
Despite having played one match fewer than City, Liverpool lead the on target efforts count by 144 to 142 (per FBRef). “When’s the parade?” the naysayers no doubt cry at this point, and clearly being narrowly top of this chart doesn’t mean a great deal in the grand scheme of things. With the hype surrounding Erling Haaland and his inevitable comparisons with Darwin Nunez, it’s interesting that the Reds have the edge though.
The clubs finished in a dead heat for this metric last season – pity they didn’t in the league table – with City holding a lead of seven, 26, 41 and 28 if we then look back through the preceding four campaigns respectively. In other words, from the widest margin occurring in 2018/19, Liverpool have closed the gap year-on-year since and may accumulate more shots on target this season for the first time since 2016/17.
So, how have they managed to overtake City this season? A big part of it is down to Mohamed Salah maintaining his remarkable form. The Egyptian has been in the top three Premier League players for shots on target in all six campaigns that he has been with Liverpool, the only man from any club for whom that is the case.
Salah is also good at creating high quality chances which are more likely to generate goalkeeper-testing efforts too – he has completed 22 open play key passes leading to shots on target in 2022/23, comfortably the most of anyone at Liverpool.
The difference is that he is receiving greater support than ever before. The closest a teammate has ever been to Salah for shots on target at the end of a campaign is 12, which Sadio Mane achieved twice. Yet despite playing almost 1,000 minutes fewer than the 30-year-old, Nunez is just two behind Salah in the standings.
And while he’s further back in the creating stakes, Nunez has still set up the joint-second most on target efforts in the squad. Add in that Roberto Firmino is averaging more shots on target per 90 minutes than in any previous season of his career and it’s clear why the Reds are doing so well.
With City having scored 19 goals more than Liverpool, and six other clubs converting a higher proportion of their shots on target, it’s clear erratic finishing from the Reds has led to the extreme outcomes seen against Everton and United. But the underlying process is strong and looking stronger than that of their rivals. It only bodes well for the challenges ahead, both between now and May as well as getting back into the title race next season.
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