A majority of voters want the Albanese government to continue to work with Indigenous Australians to find solutions despite Saturday’s voice referendum rout but only 38% of Guardian Essential poll respondents think the next step should be a treaty.
As Peter Dutton on Monday dumped his suggestion of pursuing a second referendum on Indigenous constitutional recognition in the event the voice to parliament was defeated, the new survey of 1,125 voters finds low levels of public support for treaty, truth-telling, a legislated voice or constitutional recognition of the first Australians without a voice to parliament.
While 63% of respondents want Labor to recalibrate and address Indigenous disadvantage, only 37% favour rebooting the reconciliation agenda through a truth-telling commission, 35% favour a legislated voice rather than the constitutionally enshrined advisory body that a majority of Australians rejected on Saturday and 35% support constitutional recognition but not a voice.
The Greens have called for the government to establish a national truth and justice commission. The prime minister on Monday confirmed that the government remained committed to pursuing Makarrata truth-telling, with Anthony Albanese told parliament Makaratta meant “coming together after struggle”.
But the prime minister signalled he needed guidance from Indigenous leaders about new policy priorities. Voice campaigners have withdrawn from the national conversation for a week to grieve the referendum defeat.
In late September, with all national opinion polls suggesting the voice referendum was heading for defeat, Albanese told Guardian Australia the campaign had been valuable even if Australians ultimately said no to the voice because the debate had brought Indigenous disadvantage front and centre in the national conversation.
But a majority of respondents in the latest Guardian Essential poll think the campaign hasn’t improved their knowledge about the history of race relations in Australia.
Only a quarter of respondents (24%) think they know more about Indigenous history as a consequence of the referendum campaign, and 76% say their knowledge is about the same – although 19% of respondents say they have emerged from the referendum campaign with a more favourable view of Indigenous Australians. (About 69% said the voice debate had made no difference and 11% said they had a less favourable view.)
The survey shows more voters went into the referendum campaign with a fixed negative view of the voice to parliament that did not shift over weeks of public debate than a positive one, with 48% of respondents saying they were no voters and their view didn’t change, and 28% saying the same for yes.
Only 9% of respondents say they started out supporting yes but their view changed, and 7% say they started as no but they shifted.
A clear majority of respondents (74%) say the Albanese government’s No 1 priority should be steps to address cost-of-living pressure on households. At the moment, more poll respondents think Australia is on the wrong track (48%) than the right one (34% – with 20% unsure).
Voters are also concerned about the escalating war in Israel which was triggered by a shocking massacre of civilians by Hamas militants just over a week ago. A majority of respondents (67%) are worried the conflict will spiral in an unstable region, and 64% say they are concerned the hostilities will threaten social cohesion by triggering unrest in diaspora communities in Australia.
A majority of respondents want the Australian government to remain in the sidelines of the conflict (63%). More voters think Australia should render any assistance to Israel (23%) than to Palestine (13%) – but less than half of Guardian Essential respondents (42%) think the Israeli response to the provocation from Hamas has been proportionate.
While Dutton is keen to use the resumption of parliament to heap pressure on the prime minister after the voice rebuff, the latest poll shows Albanese’s approval ratings have been steady since July. More voters continue to approve of the prime minister’s performance than disapprove (46% to 43%).
Dutton continues to be unpopular with voters. There has been a two-point drop in the opposition leader’s approval in a month (38% to 36%) and 43% of respondents continue to disapprove of his performance. This negative movement is within the Guardian Essential poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus three points.
