A NEW “megapoll” has predicted how every single seat in Scotland would vote if another General Election were held tomorrow – and shown a major revival of SNP fortunes while Labour support plummets.
Produced by the think tank More In Common, the UK-wide poll of more than 11,000 people used the MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) method to combine detailed survey data with demographic and geographic modeling to estimate public opinion at constituency level.
It found that Labour would remain the largest party, but lose almost 200 seats and win just six more than the Tories. Keir Starmer’s party would have 228 MPs to Kemi Badenoch’s 222 – despite the Conservatives’ projected vote share (26%) pipping Labour’s (25%).
Reform UK would emerge as the third-largest party UK-wide, with 72 MPs and 21% of the vote, the MRP poll predicted.
A total of 326 seats are needed for a majority at Westminster, meaning even two parties together (outside an unlikely deal between Labour and the Tories) could not command enough votes to control the Commons.
More In Common said this would be a “highly fragmented and unstable Parliament” which shows Westminster’s First Past The Post electoral system “struggling to function".
In Scotland, a constituency map produced by the think tank projected the SNP returning 38 MPs while Labour slump to just 10. The Tories would be left with four seats north of the Border, while the LibDems pick up five.
Here is how every seat in Scotland would vote in a General Election held tomorrow, according to More In Common’s MRP poll:
In Scotland, More In Common analysis projected the SNP would win 37 seats, taking 26 from Labour, one from the Tories, and one from the LibDems. However, the think tank’s map shows Labour losing 27 seats to the SNP, leaving the party with 38 MPs.
It is unclear where the discrepancy comes from, but it may be Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, which the map projects will go to the SNP despite both them and Labour winning 24% of the vote.
Luke Tryl, the executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With potentially four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next General Election. Instead, however, it confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office.
“The First Past the Post system is struggling to deal with that degree of fragmentation, which is why our model shows so many seats on a three-way knife edge, and many being won on exceptionally small shares of the vote.
“There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer Government disappointing and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow. Far from the usual electoral honeymoon, our model estimates that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the seats they won in July’s election. While the new Government is still in its infancy it is clear that decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget measures have landed badly. The pressure from the public is now on the Government to deliver.
“However, our model also shows the challenge the Conservatives face. Despite the models estimate of seat gains, they would be heading for their second worst share of the vote in history, and without making significant gains against Reform on the right, and the Liberal Democrats on the left, would struggle to come even close to being able to form a majority Government.
“Instead, the big beneficiaries of the unpopularity of both main parties are Reform UK with our model estimating their number of seats will increase 14-fold. Strikingly, the party appears to have established two particularly strong regional bases of support – one in South Yorkshire/North Nottinghamshire and the other in Tyne and Wear.”
The More In Common MRP poll used data collected from 11,024 adults in Great Britain between October 31 and December 16.
