Pretty big news week, and we got you covered, with the big post-holiday return of the mailbag …
From Justin Mason (@Masonjt24): Do you think the current GM in Carolina will remain in Carolina at season’s end? Could Adam Peters replace him?
Justin, I think all things are on the table, and I don’t think anything has been decided yet.
Because David Tepper just went through it, there’s already a working list—he interviewed Kellen Moore, Sean Payton, Mike Kafka, Ken Dorsey, Ejiro Evero, Shane Steichen, Steve Wilks, and Jim Caldwell before hiring Frank Reich in January. Of those, obviously Payton and Steichen would be out, and I’d imagine Evero and Caldwell would be, too, since they’re on staff and weren’t promoted to interim coach, as would Dorsey, who was fired as the Bills’ offensive coordinator. It’s also hard to see Tepper going back to Wilks.
AP/Chris Carlson
That leaves Moore and Kafka. And you can add Lions OC Ben Johnson, who the Panthers badly wanted to interview before Johnson decided to pull his name out of the search. Then, you could throw Jim Harbaugh—who reached out to the Panthers last year—into it, and Patriots linebackers coach Jerod Mayo, who turned down an interview, and come up with reasons for why any of them would work.
Truth is, a coaching search can be a little bit of a crapshoot. What’s not, though, is making sure things are right around whoever the coach is. So maybe creating that means Tepper wiping the slate clean, and picking a new coach and GM in tandem. Maybe it means letting the coaching search inform the decision he makes on incumbent Scott Fitterer and the personnel staff. Maybe it means finding a coach that will fit with Fitterer.
I don’t know which way that goes at this point. I would say that if there’s a coach that Tepper really wants out there, and that coach wants his own GM as a precondition, I don’t think Tepper will let his feelings for Fitterer get in the way. But we’ll see.
From Gambling Avenger (@GamblingAvenge1): Is Tepper pushing into Dan Snyder territory with his actions?
Gambling, I’m going to say no.
Yes, there are some similar tendencies there. The quick trigger with coaches, and swooping in on certain football matters would be two that stick out. But according to those who’ve worked with both, Tepper is a much better guy in general, and person to work with in particular, than the Napoleonic Snyder. And I think there’s an important point in explaining this to remember, too.
A lot of owners stumble through their early years. Most arrive as wildly successful businessmen who’ve always been the smartest guy in the room, and think pro football will be like the other industries they’re in. And oftentimes, the instincts or principles they’ve learned to rely on don’t transfer over, and they’re humbled in short order.
Patriots owner Robert Kraft is a good example. He clashed with Bill Parcells when he first bought the team and then was infamous for meddling through the Pete Carroll years. To his credit, he learned for those first six years; empowered his next coach, Bill Belichick; and the rest is history. He’s now regarded as one of sports’ best owners. Same goes for 49ers owner Jed York, who was famously at odds with Jim Harbaugh through an extended period of success, then had two single-year coaches (Jim Tomsula, Chip Kelly) before figuring it out.
I think, down the line, that’s how we’ll look at Tepper’s early years in Carolina. Which is to say my guess is he won’t wind up like Snyder, who never seemed to learn anything.
From MJ_TWISI (@MJ_TWISI): Best bet(s) for Commanders GM?
To find the answer, MJ, I think you have to dig into new owner Josh Harris, and look at what makes him tick. Very clearly, his background with the Sixers and Devils tell you he’s going to dive headlong into analytics—something he tacitly confirmed by hiring former Jaguars exec Eugene Shen as their senior vice president of football strategy before making any final decisions on the fate of the brass he inherited from Snyder.
Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports
That should tell you whether he is going to pluck from what he sees as a forward-thinking organization. And that’s what he’s done pretty consistently as an NBA owner. Which brings you to where he’s had success and failure, and it’s been with experienced executives that can effectively marry the world’s scouting and numbers—that’s what Daryl Morey is more so than Sam Hinkie, who was a Morey lieutenant when Harris hired him a decade ago.
So if you’re looking for forward-thinking teams to pick from, I’d put Philly, Baltimore, Cleveland, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Seattle in that group. If you’re looking for guys who can bring together the on-the-ground evaluations with the data, guys with a lot of experience coming into the interview process, I’d put San Francisco’s Adam Peters and Baltimore’s Joe Hortiz up as really good names to work with (and there are others).
But again, as is the case in Carolina, a coaching search could influence all that, too.
From R------ lover for life (@turkmar00): What do you think the Commanders will do in the draft?
Turk, I don’t know. I don’t know who will be making the pick. I don’t know where the pick will land. I don’t know how you could give a real answer to this question.
But I do think I know what you’re really asking here, and that’s probably whether the Commanders will take a quarterback in the first round. My answer is … maybe. Right now, they sit fifth in the draft order, but they’re two full games out of the third slot, with spots No. 4 through 15 occupied by teams with four or five wins. That means there is a wide range from which the Commanders could pick, while it’s unlikely they’re in a spot to get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. And that, to me, means you can’t predetermine whether you go QB.
The good news is the Commanders are operating from a relative position of strength. The presence of 23-year-old quarterback Sam Howell gives them options. If they’re picking fifth or sixth or seventh, and they see someone (Jayden Daniels? J.J. McCarthy? Bo Nix?) as truly special, they can pull the trigger and let Howell compete with the kid. If they’re picking there, or later or earlier, and aren’t enthralled with the options, they can stick with Howell and use the pick on a tackle like Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt, or an edge rusher like Dallas Turner.
From Uncle (@Uncle324): Eberflus’s defense has looked solid the last 4–5 weeks. How many wins does he need to keep his job?
Uncle, let’s consider where the Bears have come from under Matt Eberflus.
With a teardown in front of them, Eberflus and Ryan Poles arrived in January 2022 and started to flip the roster. They started their first year 2–1, then promptly lost 13 of 14 to close the season. In the offseason, they drafted Darnell Wright, traded for DJ Moore, added free agents Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. And they started this year 0–4, putting the franchise in a 1–17 rut over an 18-game stretch.
Since then, they’re 4–4. They’ve suffered only one loss by more than a single possession. The defense, as you’ve said, has tightened up—over the last three weeks, they’ve shut down the Panthers and Vikings, and held the Lions in check for 55 minutes (even if the last five weren’t pretty). On the other side of the ball, the line’s playing better, and Justin Fields is improving, extending plays to throw, escaping the rush and being on it assignment-wise.
Is all that enough? We’ll see. How they come out of their bye will help to tell the tale, with the schedule very manageable over the season’s final five weeks. The wild card is new president Kevin Warren, who didn’t hire either Eberflus or Poles, and could want to bring in his own people (and he is said to want to be more involved on the football side). What his temperature for keeping the guys he inherited is remains, for now, anyone’s guess.
From Casual Sports Takes (@CSLSportsTakes): Justin Fields era = ?
Fields is getting better. The problem is that what he needs is to continue to play—and I think if he does, he can get there—and the Bears might be choosing between his fourth and final “cheap” year on a rookie deal, and Caleb Williams or Drake Maye coming in on a fresh new rookie deal. Worse, he doesn’t have the control over the situation that Kyler Murray does in Arizona, where he can’t just win his way out of it by driving his team’s first-round pick down the draft board, since the Bears also own a putrid Carolina team’s first.
Brad Rempel/USA TODAY Sports
So, yeah, I’d say the likelihood is Williams or Maye replace Fields, and Fields is someone else’s project next year. Even if it’s through no fault of his own.
From Rich DeFuria (@rdefuria): Bill Belichick’s career regular-season record without Brady: 81–97 (.455). That’s worse than Rex Ryan, Lovie Smith, Wayne Fontes, et al. Was it really all TB12??? Because the record seems to show that it was.
No, Rich, it was not all Tom Brady.
And yeah, the numbers aren’t pretty. In total, Bill Belichick’s been a head coach for 29 seasons. He had Brady as his primary starting quarterback for 18 of those years. He made the playoffs in 17 of those seasons, and, in that time, won 17 AFC East titles, nine conference titles and six Super Bowls. In the other 11 seasons, he’s made the playoffs once, and this year will be his eighth of those 11 with a losing record.
That’s stark, and it’s also where almost every other NFL coach in the modern era is at—you either have a quarterback or you don’t, and if you don’t … good luck to you.
That said, the early Patriots teams weren’t about Brady and Brady alone. They won with a really well-conceived, and underrated, college of talented, tough, resourceful players that were supremely well coached, and playing in schemes that fit their profiles. Go back and look at the guys that went through there—Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Ty Law, Rodney Harrison, Matt Light, Dan Koppen, Kevin Faulk and Troy Brown.
I’d bet most people would look at those rosters and say, Wow, that team was more loaded than I remembered, the same way I think they’d be impressed, going back and looking, to see just how clean those teams played, from a discipline and execution standpoint. The Patriots were, simply, a machine. Coaching is a big reason why.
So, again, I know it looks bad now. I promise you, though, Belichick led the most well-coached teams I’ve seen in almost 20 years covering the league. And I do think he’s the greatest coach of all time.
From dave hodgson (@hbomb2010): Why didn’t Fox have a turkey leg for Jordan Love?
Dave! Can’t help you on that …
From RM (@BuckHusky): Do the Browns make the playoffs?
RM, I’ll go through this exercise with you in real time. My playoff locks in the AFC are Kansas City, Baltimore, Miami and Jacksonville. I think it’s very hard to see any of those four missing the party. From there, honestly, I think it’s wide open. Buffalo’s the best team of the remaining group but has a murderous schedule. The Steelers are tough to guess on because of their coordinator change. The Texans and Colts and Broncos are frisky.
If I had to guess right now, I’d say Buffalo sneaks in, the Steelers are there and then the seventh spot is up for grabs. Gun to my head, I’ll take the Texans. But Cleveland making it wouldn’t shock me.
From Eric Joseph Baird (@ErJoe1992): How is this Seahawks season playing out? Should we expect major changes from a roster point this offseason? It seems like there is just zero consistency from game to game. Pete, of course, always puts the blame on himself, but the onus does eventually have to fall on the players.
Eric, I’d give it some patience. The Seahawks have had two really strong drafts in a row. Don’t overreact to the team, and quarterback Geno Smith, being in a bit of a rut. I don’t see why you wouldn’t think they could dig out of it.
From JDins5 (@JDins_5): The Niners’ loss was ugly to say the least, but the Jaguars’ other losses are to a hot Texans team and a tight one to the Chiefs. With the Ravens and Chiefs considered the current class of the AFC, how close behind is Jacksonville to competing for a conference title appearance?
JDins, they’re a divisional round win away from it.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
The Jaguars are a good, balanced, young team that should keep improving around Trevor Lawrence and a talented nucleus. To me, Sunday gave everyone a great window into it. Doug Pederson gambled at the end of the first half and lost—going for it from the 1-yard line after Lawrence and Christian Kirk connected for 57 yards, and failing as the clock expired. The gamble left the Jags’ lead at six and allowed for Houston to jump ahead 14–13 in the third.
But Pederson’s crew kept chipping away, and with guys like Kirk and Travis Etienne Jr. and Calvin Ridley coming together around Lawrence, the Jags outlasted the Texans to split their season series and take a two-game lead in the division. Which means they’re now 7–1 in their last eight.
So while I still like Baltimore as the top contender to the Chiefs’ throne in the AFC, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Jags beat them in the playoffs and wind up playing Kansas City for a trip to Las Vegas.
From Ricker81 (@D_Ricker81): If the Giants don’t have a top-2 pick or are unable to trade into the top 2, can you still see them drafting a QB with their first pick or even packaging their multiple second-rounders to get back into round 1 for a QB? Or do you think they continue on with Jones as the FQB?
Ricker, I think Daniel Jones’s contract actually gives them options. Next year is the final guaranteed season it carries. That means a first-round pick could come in and sit for a year behind Jones, with the team knowing it’d be able to move on from its 2019 first-rounder in ‘25. Or the Giants could just stick with Jones for another year.
I’d say the same thing here that I’d say for a lot of teams. If the Giants wind up with the first or second pick, the decision’s academic. You take Williams or Maye. If they’re picking further down, things get more interesting. And that’s where you want to have the flexibility the Giants have, where they can take one if they see him as special, but just as easily can punt on the group, and either trade their pick to a QB-needy team or take another player.
It is, relatively speaking, a strong position to take into next spring.
From Ocho (@ocho_bingo): Will Kraft publicly fire Belichick and embarrass him as he’s embarrassed the franchise this season or is he looking to trade him?
Ocho, I don’t think Robert Kraft is going to fire Belichick out of spite.
I feel very comfortable saying his preference would be for an amicable separation.
Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports
But this could well get awkward. The scenario where it happens, in my mind, is where Kraft insists on compensation, after not getting a return for Tom Brady. If Kraft does draw that line, there’s a good chance that Belichick, presuming he wants to keep coaching (some close to him believe he will), would not go along with it, after what he’s done for the Patriots, and knowing that he could use any picks going back in a trade to help his new team.
In that scenario, Belichick could tell the other owner to sit tight, and then try to force Kraft to fire him. Would it come to that? I don’t know. But with every loss, I do think the chances of the elegant conclusion to the Belichick era that Kraft may want diminish.
It’ll be fascinating to follow this over the next few weeks.
From Seth Hoegan (@LeeTru8): Ryan Day gotta go.
Seth, sorry, that’s absurd. I’m as frustrated as anyone—Ohio State can’t lose to Michigan three straight times. No excuse for that.
But in this case, Ohio State had a first-year starting quarterback, and three new starting offensive linemen, and those two things ended a potential game-winning drive when the margins were razor thin, with the best Michigan team in a generation with 44 seniors playing Ohio State in a down year. To me, 2022—when OSU dominated the first half, and should have been up by three touchdowns at the break, then collapsed—was way more egregious.
Now, I 1,000,000% believe some adjustments are necessary. The best Ohio State teams have been the ones that took the rivalry most seriously, and subsequently won titles, because being battle-hardened for that game made those teams battle-hardened for everything that came after it. So losing the game should hurt, the same way it did for a group of Michigan players who wasn’t considered to be on the same planet as Ohio State three years ago, and did something about it. If it doesn’t hurt like that, something’s wrong.
Now, with that off my chest, Ryan Day’s done a ton of good things over five years. The program’s in a great place. If it keeps recruiting the way it has, and starts to hit the portal as hard as Michigan has the last couple of years, and everyone feels the pain of what just happened every day of the offseason, this thing swings back to how it should be quickly.
