Happy 2022, everyone …
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From Bryan Borrall (@BBorrall): Are Carson Wentz’s days in Indy really over?
Bryan, simply offloading Wentz is possible, but it would raise a question that people habitually ignore when discussing situations like this one: Then what?
First, let’s sort through the logistics. Wentz is guaranteed $15 million of his base salary already, so cutting him at this point would mean eating that. The Colts have around $40 million in cap space, and that includes Wentz’s $28.3 million number, so it’d add $13.3 million to the room Indianapolis already has. On the third day of the new league year (March 19), Wentz will earn a $5 million roster bonus and the remaining $7 million of his ’22 base will vest, bringing the guaranteed number up to $27 million.
That creates the natural deadline of March 19.
Could the Colts trade him? Maybe. But it feels like it’d have to be an NBA-style salary dump, like we saw with Jared Goff (where taking Goff’s contract was part of the cost for the Lions) or Brock Osweiler (which was way more of a straight dump, with the Browns’ scoring a second-round pick for absorbing his contract).
It’s fun to think about the idea of a team like Jacksonville doing it to get a pick (and maybe that’s not the best example because of Doug Pederson’s presence there), but you’d need to have a bunch of things working to execute it. The money, of course, is an issue, as would be whether Wentz would be willing to go somewhere as a backup. And how such a trade might affect another team’s situation with its starter is a factor, too.
To circle back, the question of what the Colts would do next is another good question. If Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins are off the market, would someone like Jimmy Garoppolo be enough of an upgrade to jump through all those hoops? Would Russell Wilson even agree to go to the Colts?
The whole situation is complex, and difficult, and it’s why I’ve figured all along the Colts would try to get Wentz to come back on a cut salary, so they can put more around him.
What’s clear is, despite some bright spots, the trade for Wentz feels regrettable. They wound up giving up first- and third-round picks for him, when they were on Matthew Stafford’s list of three teams, and didn’t make much of a play for the then Lions quarterback. Regardless of how you feel about Stafford as a player, I can’t imagine many people would rather have Wentz for a one and three than Stafford for two firsts.
From Noah Tuck (@noahtuck3): Do the Vikings unload Kirk Cousins to the highest bidder?
Noah, I do not think the Vikings will do that. I think they’re going to hang onto him for the same reason the Colts might hold on to Wentz, though Cousins has certainly been the better quarterback of late—they have him under contract for this year, he knows the system new coach Kevin O’Connell is bringing in and his money makes it so even if they wanted to move him, it’d be pretty difficult to do so.
Cousins’s base salary for 2022 is $35 million, and every cent of it is fully guaranteed.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Cousins will be the quarterback in 2023. And sure, having him take up $45.17 million on the cap isn’t ideal. But Cousins gives the team a security blanket at the position as O’Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah get their program off the ground, and his presence as a very viable option at the position should give the team flexibility not to overreach for a long-term answer in what should be a wild quarterback market.
Alex Smith bought Andy Reid time to find Patrick Mahomes. Matt Ryan’s affording the Falcons’ young brass the same sort of luxury. There’s no reason why Cousins can’t be that guy for O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah, at least for the time being (he’s in a contract year).
From Legion of Dudes (@LegionOfDudes): I’d love your insight into the stampede of coaches running out of Gillette.
Legion, I think for most of them, it’s about opportunity elsewhere. Josh McDaniels is getting the chance to be a head coach again, Mick Lombardi a coordinator and Bo Hardegree a quarterbacks coach. The last time an exodus to one place like this happened, it was when Brian Flores took assistants with him from Foxborough to Miami, and you could tie most of those moves simply to promotions as well.
And here’s the reality of it: Even if those promotions don’t come with a ton of added responsibility (Hardegree and Jerry Schuplinski, for example, both left to go from assistant quarterbacks coach to quarterbacks coach), usually they’ll come with a healthy raise. Which, I’d say for any of us, would be a relatable reason to leave a job.
The other part of it that’s interesting is that the Patriots have a pretty extensive history of letting coaches know where they stand. Brian Daboll once left because Bill Belichick declined to move him from receivers to quarterbacks after Josh McDaniels was promoted (that was in 2005–06). Chad O’Shea started looking for a way out, and eventually got it, after he found out he wouldn’t be promoted to coordinator if McDaniels left. And Belichick’s general stinginess with titles can grate on guys who have big aspirations.
So, again, opportunity elsewhere is the reason for a lot of these departures. But it’s fair to ask in some of these cases whether opportunity could’ve been created for the departing if they had stayed—and maybe, in a few of those, wonder why it wasn’t.
From (@DowlingRad19): Bert what is your take on the Bill O’B situation?
Dowling, as much as anything else, I think O’Brien’s going from Tuscaloosa to Foxborough would be the work of Bill Belichick and Nick Saban, rather than O’Brien himself. O’Brien’s essentially been commuting for a year, with his family back in Houston. He’s from Boston. The Patriots need an offensive coordinator, after losing McDaniels and three of his position coaches. Belichick, meanwhile, is most comfortable filling openings like that with coaches who’ll bring institutional knowledge with them. Which, of course, O’Brien has.
There’s even a relationship between O’Brien and Mac Jones there—Jones helped teach O’Brien the Alabama offense as he prepared for the draft late last winter.
But my sense is O’Brien knows that any move from Alabama to the Patriots would have to be engineered by the guys in charge. And if Saban’s set on keeping O’Brien, based on the success he had with Heisman winner Bryce Young, I don’t see Belichick pushing the issue.
From Matt (@MrKCincy): What’s up with Pete Carmichael not being OC anymore?
Matt, I think the ball is sort of in Carmichael’s court here. Dennis Allen loves him. The players know what to expect from him. And no one has better background in Sean Payton’s offense than Carmichael—he was on Payton’s first Saints staff as quarterbacks coach and has been the coordinator the last 13 seasons.
The Saints plan to have him on the staff. In what capacity? It’ll be interesting to see how he sees himself fitting in, with Doug Marrone back in town, and other notable names interviewing for the coordinator position.
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From Craig Ginsberg (@CraigAdamG): Thoughts on Vikings hiring O’Connell? Does he have potential to replicate McVay’s success?
Craig, one thing I don’t think anyone should do is hold another coach to the McVay standard, because I think you’ll have a hard time finding someone who’s done what he just did, unless you go back a few decades. McVay, to review, took a franchise that had endured 10 straight losing seasons and 12 straight years without a playoff berth, won his division and 11 games in Year 1, and went to the Super Bowl in Year 2. Through five years, he’s had five winning seasons, four playoff appearances, three division titles and two Super Bowl trips.
And, of course, now he’s won his Lombardi.
He completely changed who the Rams were when they badly needed it, as a new team in a market that’d been relatively indifferent to pro football. For O’Connell to achieve something comparable in Minnesota would be, well, pretty far-fetched.
That said, there are some common qualities between the two, similarities that at least had people in Washington drawing the comparison years back. O’Connell may not be the livewire personality that McVay is, but he can unite people and draw immediate respect. He’s also great with quarterbacks (he did play the position at the NFL level) and is creative in designing an offense, with some experience having called one (late in 2019 in Washington).
So there are a ton of reasons to feel good about the hire. I’m just not sure you should put the bar at “replicating McVay’s success,” because that’s not really fair to anyone.
From Logan Roy (@TheLoganRoy): Will the Browns have a new starting QB next year?
This is the Logan Roy? It’s an honor to answer your question …
Logan, I think in all likelihood the Browns will stick with Baker Mayfield for another year. To be clear, if there were an obvious upgrade out there, my sense is that they’d explore it—it’d be a bad move not to. I’m just not convinced there’ll be one there for them. And with the Broncos, Panthers, Commanders, Saints and others expected to be out there looking for franchise quarterbacks, and Deshaun Watson the only certain option (we’ll see on Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson), it makes sense for the Browns to plan on having Mayfield at QB again.
Remember, because Mayfield’s heading into his option year (only two first-round QBs under the current system have played on a fifth-year option: Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston), the probability of things being awkward are high, which means it makes sense for the team to do what it’s doing now and build Mayfield up as the starter.
We’ll see whether anything changes.
From Mike Liddle (@mliddle17): If the Panthers were to sign a veteran, who would be the best option? Or should they stay away and get a young franchise QB in the draft??
Mike, the Panthers are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here.
The rock is Matt Rhule’s situation. It’s no secret that owner David Tepper wasn’t happy with the way last year ended, and the fact that Tepper hasn’t come out and publicly endorsed Rhule or his staff, fueling perception that Rhule’s seat has gotten toasty, won’t help the Panthers convince a veteran quarterback that Charlotte’s where he wants to be. If a Watson or Wilson has options, why go to a place where upheaval might be a year away?
The hard place is the draft class. I had one veteran evaluator tell me that Ole Miss’s Matt Corral had the best week of any quarterback at the Senior Bowl—by virtue of being the only one of the top guys who wasn’t in the game (Corral wasn’t eligible). It was that bad, and there will be teams that don’t have a first-round grade on any of the quarterbacks in this class.
So if the Panthers can’t get a guy like Watson to come and don’t like the quarterbacks in the draft class? We’re probably going to be talking about someone like Garoppolo.
From Booker Daniels (@BookDII): With the absence of a clear QB 1 and no consensus about the top of the board, is the best value in the draft later on Day 1 and on Day 2?
Booker, it’s really hard this year—in a normal year, I think Liberty’s Malik Willis might be a second- or third-round pick and would have potential to be that guy. But because of the dearth of high-end talent in the class this time around, he might get overdrafted and even go in the first round.
Further down the line, Nevada’s Carson Strong brings a little intrigue with him. Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder is the total package intangibly and could be a value if he slides. But if you’re looking for a Davis Mills–type of sleeper pick in this year’s quarterback crew, it’s going to be hard to find him. In fact, Mills is probably better than all these guys to begin with.
From I'm a Bengals Fan Now! @DonRidenour): I think Eric Bieniemy would be served well by going somewhere to be the OC where he calls the plays. Any thoughts on the best fit?
Don!! I’d be excited to see it happen; I just don’t know where it would at this point. O’Connell will be interviewing candidates for the Minnesota coordinator opening (Rams assistants Thomas Brown and Wes Phillips are in that mix), but that’s likely a non-play-calling gig, making it similar to the one he has. Ditto with the Rams’ and Niners’ spots. And the Saints and Patriots have openings that would be play-call posts, but it’s hard to see either team straying too far from their respective families to fill those spots.
That means, absent just needing a change of scenery, or the Chiefs’ wanting something new, it’s hard to imagine Bieniemy having a much better place to go at this point.
It’s possible that, for Bieniemy and the Chiefs, things have just run their course. Maybe Kansas City will want to bring Matt Nagy back into fold. Maybe Bieniemy’s got an opportunity he’s kept under his hat over the last month. But absent that? It’d make sense for the sides to work this out, for Bieniemy to be back for a fifth season as Chiefs OC.
