Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott, head coach
The Bills offense is a machine, with Josh Allen playing the best all-around ball of his career. But the Bills will only go as deep as McDermott, their head coach and defensive architect, can take them.
Who knows what happened to McDermott? Maybe it was an ayahuasca trip, therapy, or the after-effects of the 13-second defeat to the Chiefs in the 2021 AFC title game. But he has overhauled his entire approach over the last couple of years. From the leader of a fairly passive, predictable (yet excellent) defense, he has turned the Bills into a slick, attacking group. They roll at as many wonky disguises as any group in the league. Even more importantly, he has become an aggressive head coach in attacking fourth downs, allowing the ball to be placed in the hands of Allen in must-have-it situations rather than being conservative.
On the other hand, Buffalo’s pass-rush has dwindled this season. They mustered only nine pressures against a flaky Baltimore Ravens offensive line last week. Across the season, they notched just a 30% pressure rate with four pass-rushers, putting them 24th in the NFL. Winning with four rushers is key to deep postseason success, and the Bills’ four-down-and-go group has collapsed this year; their pressure and sack rates finished in the bottom third of the league in the regular season, and were falling further away as they entered the playoffs. How McDermott schemes up pressure without his go-to pass-rushers winning one-on-one will be key to giving his team a shot to win it all.
Still, it’s how he will manage games that will have the biggest impact. McDermott has become an aggressive situational play-caller after years of submarining his side with conservative calls in close games. He has gone for it on fourth downs this season more than at any point in his career. By finally realizing that the path to the promised land is putting the ball in the hands of his brilliant quarterback, McDermott has given his team the biggest fourth-down edge of any coach in the league.
That changed in the divisional round, though. With a shot to put the Ravens away, McDermott turtled up. With the Bills up by five points late in the fourth quarter, he opted to kick a field goal on fourth-and-two rather than giving Allen a chance to close out the game. That decision allowed the Ravens to march down the field to potentially tie the game. If not for a Mark Andrews drop on a two-point conversion, it would have gone to overtime.
It was a warning sign. Returning to Arrowhead Stadium will conjure memories of McDermott and Buffalo’s lowest point. Will McDermott stick to what he has preached all season, or did the divisional round foreshadow that the coach has lost his nerve in the most decisive games?
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, quarterback
It almost always comes down to Mahomes. But this season, more than even last year, the Chiefs will go as far as their quarterback can drag them.
The Chiefs’ offense has been a chore this year, due largely to a ropey offensive line. The team’s defense remains capable of keeping matchups close, but against a bulldozing Bills offense, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will have to match the AFC’s best point-for-point.
So it’s over to Mahomes, in a down year, to figure things out (perhaps with a helping hand from officials). The Chiefs have struggled all season with their two tackle spots. Mahomes has been pressured at a career-high rate, limiting how much the Chiefs can attack down the field. Towards the end of the regular season, KC moved All-Pro guard Joe Thuney to left tackle to solidify things. But it hasn’t worked. In 13 games as a left guard, Thuney coughed up a measly 2.1 pressure rate. He conceded just 12 total pressures, pitching a shutout in seven games. At guard, he didn’t concede a single sack. But in four starts at left tackle, Thuney has struggled. His pressure rate has ballooned to 14.8% and he has surrendered 19 pressures, including a pair of sacks.
That knock-on impact has been dramatic, too. Moving Thuney outside has broken up the best interior offensive line in the league, which at least gave Mahomes some certainty about where his pocket would cave in during the regular season. With backup Mike Caliendo plugged into Thuney’s old spot, All-Pro center Creed Humphrey has been forced to help out to his left more, exposing right guard Trey Smith in one-on-one situations. With the line struggling, there is no margin for error for Mahomes and his offense.
Some of those passing game concerns can be offset by a strong rush attack. And the Bills do not have the strongest pass-rush. But even if the Chiefs can sneak by Buffalo, Mahomes will be under siege against whichever side comes out of the NFC. If the Chiefs are to win an unprecedented three Super Bowls in a row, it will be over to Mahomes, again, to make circus-level throws under fire.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, quarterback
Daniels has walked into the playoffs as one of the best players in the league, an almost unfathomable standard for a rookie quarterback. Everything he does happens at warp speed, from making decisions, to getting the ball out on time, to taking off and running in the open field.
There are no easy solutions for a defense. Daniels doesn’t turn the ball over. At this stage, he has seen every coverage and cracked it. He has seen every approach – and cracked that too. The Detroit Lions, like many other teams before them, tried to unnerve Daniels in the divisional round by lighting him up with the blitz, hoping to bait the rookie into panicked decisions. But Daniels is unflappable. Against the Lions, Daniels finished 13-of-15 for 200 yards and a touchdown against the blitz, averaging a gaudy 13 yards per attempt.
Trying to blitz him is off the menu. The other alternative is to sag as many defenders into coverage as possible, forcing Daniels to hang in the pocket, and hope he misreads the mass of bodies down the field. Dropping eight defenders (rather than the traditional seven or six) into coverage has been a popular strategy to try to slow down dual-threat quarterbacks. The problem: Daniels was the No 1 quarterback in the NFL against so-called drop-eight coverage this season … as a rookie! Gulp.
The loss of key guard Sam Cosmi could compromise the Commanders’ offense the rest of the way. And with Philadelphia’s ferocious pass-rush, Daniels will probably be under more pressure than he has seen for much of this season. But even if he is, Daniels has shown he is unfazed by pressure, be it defenders in his area code or the magnitude of the moment.
Washington’s defense is spiky. But Daniels is the reason they have made it to the NFC title game. If they win it all, it will be because Daniels is special.
Philadelphia Eagles: Defensive front
The Eagles have the most imposing defensive front left in the playoff field. They stonewall opposing run games and their pass-rush is springy, physical and deep. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter has approached Aaron Donald levels of dominance this season. Edge defender Nolan Smith has come online just in time for the championship push. But it goes beyond the two star names. With Carter, Smith, Milton Williams, Josh Sweat, Bryce Huff, Jalyx Hunt and Jordan Davis, Philly’s line runs seven deep. No one else can bring that quality or depth to the party. Behind them is linebacker Zach Baun, the most valuable defensive piece left in the postseason. Baun allows the Eagles to game matchups along the line of scrimmage unlike anyone else, and he is a game-breaker in his own right.
On offense, the Eagles are built around their all-conquering rushing attack, thanks to an overwhelming offensive line and Saquon Barkley. A run-game-plus-defense formula feels like something out of the 90s, but it’s the only recipe that will work for the Eagles.
Too often, Philadelphia’s passing game looks pedestrian. Jalen Hurts’ accuracy has eroded this season. Hurts remains a difference-maker as a runner, but he is the least reliable of the four quarterbacks left in the playoffs. Keeping games close, before allowing Barkley and the offensive line to take over late in games, will be Philadelphia’s championship formula.
To keep things close, their defensive front must dominate the line of scrimmage. Fortunately for Philly, they have the pieces to beat up on anyone.
