Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has an onerous job, at any time.
And being the frontman for the central bank hides the fact that each decision to ratchet up official interest rates is made by a group of experts – not just Lowe, who is left to make the announcement.
But this week’s message that Christmas might be cancelled, or in Lowe’s words, “further tightening of monetary policy may be required’’ is difficult to stomach on several fronts.
Firstly, the impact of the 12th increase in just over a year will engulf a big chunk of the population: Home owners enticed into the market and now struggling to meet repayments; investors hoping a small second property would provide a retirement nest egg, but now forced to increase rent to meet those ballooning mortgage payments; and renters, who cop the tail end of that decision.
Even Jim Chalmers, the treasurer who has appeared to have a Midas touch since Labor took power a year ago, looked decidedly uncomfortable last week.
And so he should. While the Reserve Bank acts independently, the government of the day is always seen as largely responsibility for the economy in which we live and work.
That puts the government’s budget spending, its pay increase to low-paid workers, and its boasts about the stellar job it is doing, firmly front and centre.
Inflation is difficult to control. But the narrative around what is happening in the kitchens and lounge rooms of consumers (and voters) should be handled much, much better.
And the failure to understand that previously, politically, has changed the trajectory of many rising government stars. Now, many of the consumers (ie, voters) who are hurting remember the same pain being visited on them previously.
Time to respond
Jim Chalmers needs to remember that. And respond to it.
And Anthony Albanese needs to consider that his flagship vision for the Voice will falter if voters (ie, consumers) believe it is being prioritised over everything else – but especially cost-of-living pressures.
The current cost of living, in most homes but probably not those on the big wages in our parliament houses, is impacting people’s lives.
The jump in mortgages is the most obvious, but in responding to that, spiralling petrol prices and out-of-control grocery bills, family lives are changing.
Children are being withdrawn from school sport because of the associated costs. Schools report trouble with some families paying fees. Ballet lessons all of a sudden become an optional extra, not the fulfilled dream of a seven-year-old.
The official cash-rate rise is like a big stone, thrown into a still pond. The ripples continue.
Going out for the odd family dinner. Sending a child to university in the city. Subscription services (in many homes, Ted Lasso might have to wait for better times). A morning cup of coffee on the way to work. The type of fruit and vegetables we put on the table (are those strawberries really $6.99 a punnet?). Visits to family that require lengthy car trips (and petrol). Muted children’s birthday parties.
That’s the impact we can see and feel. The other is psychological, and perhaps no less damaging. That’s been emphasised this week because we’ve been put on notice to expect further rises.
How high will interest rates climb? How do we budget accordingly? Should we sell? Double down? Cancel our Christmas holidays?
They are the conversations happening in electorates across the state and nation, and that’s where the challenge lies for Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albanese.
Accountability in action
Jim Chalmers took a big sidestep away from Philip Lowe last week, because he is aware of how this decision – and those still to come – will be sheeted home to him and his government’s policies.
That’s the way it works. His job is at least as hard, and probably harder, than Philip Lowe’s, because he’s been elected – and therefore able to be dismissed – by the rest of us.
The Treasurer’s narrative about what is happening and the settings his government has adopted are fundamental to his fortunes.
And talking about the Voice – despite how important it is to our nation and our future – is not going to hide those kitchen table cost-of-living decisions.
In fact, if consumers/voters don’t believe their families are being prioritised, it might have the impact of turning people away from the government’s flagship Voice promise.
Jim Chalmers and his boss need to learn quickly to walk, and chew gum.
