French president Emmanuel Macron’s visit to New Caledonia this week comes amid uncertainty over the archipelago’s future, in the wake of the contested 2021 vote on independence.
Despite three failed independence votes, the issue of self-determination remains at the forefront of minds for many in the French territory. Macron is expected to meet political leaders in Noumea this week to discuss its future status.
About 40% of the population are indigenous Kanak, most of whom support independence. Pro-independence parties, which have been in power since 2017, want full sovereignty by 2025. Those against independence say another referendum is not needed. They argue for reducing New Caledonia’s autonomy, and want more integration with the French state.
What was the outcome of the referendums?
Independent movements have long been active in the French territory, which emerged from a civil war in the 1980s with agreements providing for three referendums as a path to decolonisation. Since 2018, New Caledonia has held three votes on independence. The first two polls saw an increase of the pro-independence vote from 43.3% in 2018, to 46.7% in 2020. But when the final referendum was called in 2021, pro-independence parties boycotted the vote due to the impact of Covid on the Kanak population. The referendum came during a period of country-wide, customary mourning in midst of a wave of the virus that disproportionately affected Kanak people, and health restrictions rendered campaigning impossible. Pro-independence parties were worried this would result in low turnout and appealed to the French government to reschedule it. The government went ahead with the vote and the final result showed overwhelming support for New Caledonia to remain in France. However, given turnout was just over 40%, pro-independence parties refuse to recognise the result.
What happened after the 2021 vote?
Macron said the vote “confirmed the will of Caledonians to stay French” and while his government initially recognised the massive abstention, he later reaffirmed the vote’s outcome and said New Caledonia has a role to play in France’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
France left open the possibility of another vote in one or two generations, but the pro-independence coalition has rejected this timeline. The pro-independence camp described the 2021 vote as a political failure. They have been negotiating with Macron’s government for months on the possible new path to independence, as well as the handover of more responsibilities from the French government to local authorities.
Laurie Humuni, general secretary of the pro-independence Oceanian Democratic Rally, told the Guardian the movement would reopen negotiations “because we do not want to fall into the trap of neo-colonisation, we do not want to repeat history again”.
Pro-independence groups are also pursuing their claim with the United Nations. The FLKNS, an alliance of pro-independence political parties, is using the UN as a platform to plead that the conditions of the last independence vote means the process of decolonisation has not been honoured in New Caledonia. The FLNKS also hope a member state will refer the issue to the International Court of Justice.
“We do not want to wait any longer, so we are taking our claim to the UN to question whether France respected the self-determination rights of the people of Kanaky-New Caledonia,” said Humuni.
Separately, groups of citizens have initiated appeals on the validity of the 2021 referendum in French courts, the European court of human rights and the Kanak customary senate.
What does the pro-France side say?
Some groups, mainly concentrated around Noumea, do not want another vote.
“The State respected its engagements and democracy has spoken” said Alcide Ponga, president of Rassemblement, the oldest pro-France party in the territory.
“It is not in our interest to be independent. We have dinosaurs fighting above us, China and the US and we are not safe from a conflict in the region” he said.
Despite being nearly 17,000kms away from France, the nickel-rich territory is of geostrategic importance to Macron’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific. The spectre of the growing Chinese presence in the region is also often invoked in debates over independence. Macron’s government has been holding talks with pro-France parties and appointed one of their leaders, Sonia Backes, as the first ever New Caledonian at the head of a French Ministry. In addition, the minister of the interior Gérald Darmanin, proposed changes to the electoral system on the island that could take political power away from Kanak people.
What will happen next?
The failure of the three referendums means the territory needs a new status in the French constitution and Macron’s government is under increasing pressure to find a compromise that would appease both sides of the independence debate. He is expected to meet with all sides in Noumea this week. Any changes could lead to tensions on the ground.
“Peace is very fragile in a country like ours where history is marked by blood and humiliation” said Humuni. “Luckily, our customs mean that everything can be solved with words, as long as we acknowledge together this painful past and learn from it”.
