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Radio France Internationale
Radio France Internationale
National

Macron faces uphill battle in second round of legislative elections

The facade of the National Assembly, France's lower house of parliament, in Paris (illustration) © RFI

Emmanuel Macron and his allies have begun a crucial week of campaigning to save their parliamentary majority, under threat after a first round of voting that galvanised a newly formed left-wing alliance.

The French President has called on voters to enable him to create a "solid majority" with the second round of legislative elections on Sunday.

Speaking before taking a flight to Romania to address NATO troops, Emmanuel Macron told the press that a "Republican jump start" was needed to face looming "difficulties"

Table showing the final results of France's first round of legislative elections held on 12 June 2022.
Table showing the final results of France's first round of legislative elections held on 12 June 2022. © France Medias Monde

"Faced with the crisis of the future, nothing could be worse that getting lost in inaction, obstacles and posturing," he said, adding this would only lead to chaos on a national scale.

He also said he "understood the doubts, anxiety, fears and difficulties" felt by ordinary citizens when they went to the polls last Sunday, a democratic process marked by record abstention, at 52.49 percent.

Campaign against 'extremism'

The President is keen to strengthen his position after a strong showing by the left-wing Nupes coalition and gains by the far right, making it likely that his Together (Ensemble) alliance could lose dozens of National Assembly seats in the second round of voting next Sunday.

Macron's top lieutenants vowed to campaign hard against the "extremist" pledges of Nupe's leader, the hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon.

"We're going to make every effort to get a clear and strong majority, France needs it," his technocrat Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said in Calvados, northwest France, where she is running for her first parliament seat ever.

"There is a spending power crisis...we have a war at Europe's doorstep, we need stability," she said.

But for the left, which scored neck-and-neck with Macron's alliance in the popular vote at just over 25 percent each, "the second round is turning into an anti-Macron referendum," Eric Coquerel, a leading Nupes candidate, told LCP television.

Based on Sunday's results, Macron and his allies could emerge with between 255 and 295 parliament seats, polling firms projected, well below the 345 it has currently.

Should Macron fail to win the 289 seats that would give him an absolute majority, he would need to win over right-wing opponents such as the Republicans for every legislative vote.

Macron will have to change his "vertical" style and work with "groups other than those who support him", political scientist Pascal Perrineau told AFPTV on Monday, while pollster Frederic Dabi said that a majority of voters appeared to want to deny Macron a parliamentary majority.

If so, that could complicate the centrist's plans for pushing back the retirement age to 65 as part of a pensions overhaul, as well as tax cuts or welfare reform.

Cohabitation?

Few analysts believe Nupes could secure its own majority, producing a "cohabitation" in which Melenchon would become prime minister and Macron would have a free hand only in international and defence policy.

But Melenchon does appear to have siphoned off voters disappointed with Macron's rightward tack in recent years, which earned the former investment banker the label of "president of the rich."

"It's not what is going to happen next Sunday, but we know that we're close to seeing the majority forced into a minority," veteran political expert Dominique Reynie at the Fondapol institute told Europe 1 radio.

Melenchon, who wants to lower the retirement age to 60 from 62, hike the minimum wage and create new taxes on the wealthy, would need to mobilise many more young voters, in particular, who stayed home in droves on Sunday.

Polling firms project that Nupes will win between 150 and 210 seats in the new parliament, making it the biggest opposition group.

French leftist movement La France Insoumise's (LFI) leader Jean-Luc Melenchon delivers a speech during the inauguration convention of the members of the Nouvelle Union populaire ecologique et sociale (Nupes) "New People's Ecologist and Social Union", a left-wing political coalition, in Aubervilliers, northern Paris, on May 7, 2022.
French leftist movement La France Insoumise's (LFI) leader Jean-Luc Melenchon delivers a speech during the inauguration convention of the members of the Nouvelle Union populaire ecologique et sociale (Nupes) "New People's Ecologist and Social Union", a left-wing political coalition, in Aubervilliers, northern Paris, on May 7, 2022. AFP - JULIEN DE ROSA

High-profile ministers put to the test

Adding to Macron's worries: at least three of the 15 cabinet ministers running for parliament seats appear to be in trouble.

His high-profile Europe Minister Clement Beaune, Ecology Transition Minister Amelie de Montchalin, and Stanislas Guerini, Macron's party chief and civil service minister, are also at risk of losing next Sunday.

Ministers who fail to get elected will have to resign, according to French political conventions which Macron has vowed to uphold.

If his Together alliance fails to secure an absolute majority, its key players such as the popular former prime minister Edouard Philippe may demand greater sway in his cabinet.

That could result in a government reshuffle just a few weeks after Macron nominated Borne in the wake of his April re-election.

(with wires)

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