A potential referendum on immigration has sent a seismic wave through the French political sphere as President Emmanuel Macron seeks to shake up rules that would pave the way for a popular vote on the historically divisive issue.
France’s minority government has been hard-pressed to find support for its bill to speed up the process of legalising some undocumented foreigners, while also making it easier to deport others.
The legislation, already repeatedly postponed, will be presented to the Senate on 6 November before arriving in the National Assembly in January.
Leftwing lawmakers, including from Macron’s own Renaissance group in parliament, have banded together to demand that future immigration policy prioritises illegal workers in frontline sectors suffering labour shortages such as the construction, hospitality and service industries.
Parties on the right and far right, however, have rejected this and are insisting that migration issues be put to a referendum.
With his bill to reduce illegal immigration at an impasse, Macron recently sent a letter to his political peers and rivals unveiling plans to simplify rules surrounding referendums – including on the prickly issue of immigration.
It was a move that solicited a hardening of rhetoric from the political extremes.
Stoking divisions
Immigration has been the source of political entanglement in France for more than three decades, says Patrick Simon, a demographer and specialist in discrimination at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED).
“What’s different now is that this referendum idea is fueling more opposition,” Simon told RFI. “A few years ago we had a discussion on national identity, and even though it was not a ‘referendum’, it fueled a lot of a very negative opinions about immigrants and minorities in France.”
The French Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE), a consultative assembly, has also warned that staging a referendum on immigration would only stoke divisions over an already delicate subject.
“One of the most effective ways of reducing tensions is to avoid creating them in the first place,” CESE president Thierry Beaudet wrote in an open letter addressed to Macron.
Those opposed to a referendum worry that without clear information about the singular issues at stake, the most vocal anti-immigration voices will ring the loudest.
“It’s a trick that will foster the more radical positions and make it harder to have a more stable discussion on the pros and cons of immigration and how it can be translated into policy,” Simon argues.
Legislative roadblock
Macron’s bid to widen the number of issues that can be put to a referendum – or “preferendum”, as they’re being called – is something he hopes will help his minority government pass legislation without resorting to the infamous article 49.3 of the French constitution that allows unpopular laws to be forced through parliament without a vote.
While supporters hail the idea as a legitimate tool for direct democracy, its detractors accuse Macron of political theatre, arguing that “preferendums” risk causing unnecessary damage instead of giving more power to the population.
On the issue of immigration, a popular vote will never be able to encompass the multitude of dimensions needed for developing meaningful policy, argues Camille Le Coz, a senior policy analyst with the Migration Policy Institute Europe.
“I fail to see what the question would be to begin with,” she says. “While I think it's a good idea to consult the broader public on this issue in all of its complexity … we need to move away from this idea of a black-and-white, ‘yes’ or ‘no’ referendum.
“The asylum system, labour, migration and border management: all of these issues cannot be summed up with just one question.”
Referendum results are also notoriously tricky to foretell – with Brexit the most obvious example of a curveball. The last referendum in France, held back in May 2005, ended in a shock rejection of the European Constitution.
Constitutional hurdle
Because the French constitution limits referendum issues to economic issues and institutional reforms, amendments will have to be made before Macron’s plan to simplify referendum rules can reach fruition.
Adopted by war hero Charles de Gaulle in 1958, France’s constitution has been revised two dozen times over the years. The most recent change – to modernise state institutions – happened back in 2008.
Last week during a speech celebrating the constitution’s 65th anniversary, Macron said that preserving the charter did “not mean freezing it", as he opened the path for more potential amendments.
Any changes, however, will require support from three-fifths of a joint session of both houses of parliament.
Given those obstacles, Le Coz says it’s going to take some time before immigration can ever become the subject of a direct vote – and that Macron’s project is intentionally hypothetical.
“That's his political strategy because he knows it’s going to take a very long time,” she says. “It's a way to divert attention and gain time.”
Listen to a conversation about the immigration referendum on episode 101 of RFI's Spotlight on France podcast.
