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Autonomous driving is one of the most disruptive themes of this decade, with major players like Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOG), and Lyft (LYFT) accelerating their investments in self-driving technology. Tesla continues to refine its Full Self-Driving (FSD) platform and expand AI infrastructure, while Lyft is preparing to roll out autonomous vehicles on its ride-hailing network this summer through partnerships with Mobileye (MBLY), May Mobility, and Marubeni.
The market is hungry for new winners in the AV race. While Tesla has long dominated the conversation, Lyft’s hybrid AV network approach presents a different angle — one that could drive near-term upside if its rollout delivers. With both companies trading well below their 52-week highs and analyst sentiment mixed, investors are asking: which AV stock offers the better risk/reward setup right now?
The Bull Case for Lyft Stock
San Francisco-based Lyft (LYFT) operates a multimodal transportation platform across the U.S. and Canada, connecting riders with drivers and soon—with autonomous vehicles. The company has a market cap of approximately $5.2 billion.
LYFT shares are down 5% in the year to date and 38% over the past 52 weeks. Investors have been cautious, but the upcoming AV integration this summer could shift sentiment.
Valuation-wise, LYFT looks appealing. The stock trades at 0.88x forward sales and 51.6 forward earnings, deeply discounted versus other tech names. Its most recent quarter delivered EPS of $0.30, ahead of expectations, and full-year 2025 EPS is forecast to double year-over-year.
Still, profitability remains a concern. EBITDA and EBIT remain negative, and the company does not pay a dividend. Analysts have taken a wait-and-see approach. Out of 39 analysts, Lyft holds a consensus “Hold” rating with a score of 3.36. The average price target of $17.21 implies 40% upside potential.
The Bull Case for Tesla Stock
Austin-based Tesla (TSLA) is the world’s leading EV and autonomous driving company, with a market cap of nearly $927 billion. It sells EVs, energy storage, solar systems, and its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software globally.
TSLA stock is down 32% in the year to date but still up 54% over the past year, and continues to attract investors betting on the rise of AI-driven transportation.
Tesla remains richly valued. It trades at a forward P/E of 113.1x and a price-sales ratio of 9.17x — multiples far above the automotive and tech industry averages. But the company is growing. Q4 EPS came in at $0.73, and full-year 2025 EPS is expected to grow 20% to $2.46. Tesla also maintains a clean balance sheet with no debt and $12.4 billion in EBITDA.
Analysts are split. Out of 40 covering the stock, Tesla holds a consensus “Hold” rating with a score of 3.33. The current breakdown includes 15 “Strong Buy,” three “Moderate Buy,” 12 “Hold,” and 10 “Strong Sell” ratings. The mean price target of $338.94 implies 25% upside potential.
LYFT vs. TSLA: What’s the Bottom Line?
Lyft is a high-risk, high-upside play on the autonomous vehicle trend. With low valuation multiples and upcoming AV integration, it could deliver a short-term rerating. However, negative earnings and uncertain profitability keep investors cautious. Tesla, on the other hand, is a dominant force with consistent earnings, diversified revenue streams, and an ambitious AI strategy — but at a hefty price.
With both names rated “Hold” by analysts, the safer long-term bet remains Tesla. However, for aggressive investors eyeing short-term upside with less crowded positioning, Lyft could be the sleeper AV pick of 2025 — especially if its summer rollout beats expectations.
