The number of women diagnosed with lung cancer in the UK is expected to overtake men this year for the first time, according to projections that have prompted calls for women to be as vigilant about the disease as they are about breast cancer.
Lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death in the UK, accounting for one in five of the total. It has one of the worst cancer survival rates, which is largely attributed to diagnoses at a late stage, when treatment is less likely to be effective.
Analysis by Cancer Research UK for the Guardian suggests women will overtake men for lung cancer diagnoses in 2022-24. The projections suggest that this year, female cases will eclipse male cases for the first time, with 27,332 and 27,172 cases respectively.
Cancer experts said the “very stark” figures reflected historical differences in smoking prevalence, specifically that smoking rates peaked much earlier in men than women. Women should now be as alert to potential lung cancer signs as they were about checking for lumps in their breasts, they said.
Every year since records began, more men than women have been diagnosed with lung cancer in the UK. The most recent statistics show that for the period 2016-18 there were 25,404 male cases and 23,396 female cases. The incidence rate for every 100,000 people was 91 in men and 71 in women. But this year, the gender balance will reverse.
By 2038-40 the gap will widen, the data suggests, with 34,835 women diagnosed, compared with 31,353 men. The incidence rate gap is expected to narrow to 78 cases for every 100,000 women and 80 in men.
Alizée Froguel, the charity’s prevention policy manager, said: “Cancer Research UK’s projections show that the number of new lung cancer cases in females could overtake the number in males this year, and that gap is set to widen by 2040. From 2022-24, 49.9% of new lung cancer cases are projected to be in males, with 50.1% in females. By 2038-40, in comparison, 47.4% of cases will be in males, with 52.6% in females.
“This change is mainly due to historical differences in smoking prevalence between the sexes. Rates of smoking peaked much earlier in males than females, so lung cancer incidence in males has started falling earlier than in females.”
Ministers must do more to help smokers to quit, Froguel said. “Lung cancer causes more deaths in the UK than any other cancer type, and smoking is by far the biggest cause of the disease. But funding cuts have meant that there aren’t enough public health campaigns to encourage people to quit smoking, and many people don’t have access to the services that will support them to do so.
“If governments across the UK are serious about preventing cancer and achieving a smoke-free UK, they must urgently deliver the vital funding required to address the leading cause of cancer and save countless lives.”
Paula Chadwick, the chief executive of the Roy Castle Lung Cancer Foundation, said the data should be a wake-up call. “Whilst we are not surprised by these latest figures, they still paint a very stark picture. That said, knowledge can equal power. These calculations can serve as an important reminder to women about the prevalence of lung cancer and potentially minimise the devastation it could cause,” she said.
“Women are regularly reminded of the importance of checking for lumps in their breasts and attending mammogram appointments. We now need them to be just as vigilant about potential lung cancer symptoms and going for lung screening, if invited.”
Dr Vanessa Gordon-Dseagu, a research interpretation manager at the World Cancer Research Fund, said increasing cases in women showed the disease had a “long lag time, in many instances several decades”.
She said: “Smoking rates in the UK started a downward trend in the middle of the 1970s, predominantly driven by men quitting smoking and at the same time, more women were taking up the habit. In essence, men were quitting while an increasing percentage of women were smoking.”
Last month it was announced that everyone who has ever smoked in England is to be offered lung screening in middle age under plans to detect and treat cancer earlier. About a million screenings of people aged 55 to 74 will be carried out every year.
As well as attending a screening if invited, everyone should be aware of the signs of lung cancer, Chadwick said.
“There are many different symptoms of lung cancer. People are likely aware that a persistent cough is a sign of lung cancer, as well as with shortness of breath, repeat chest infections, coughing up blood, extreme tiredness or unexplained weight loss. However, very few know that back or shoulder pain, a lump in your neck or clubbed fingers can also be indicators of the disease.
“Our advice is if you spot any changes in your health that are unusual for you, it is always best to err on the side of caution and get it checked out because the sooner lung cancer is caught, the easier it is to treat.”
More than 55 out of 100 people with stage 1 lung cancer will survive for five years or more after they are diagnosed. Fewer than five in 100 with stage 4 lung cancer will survive five years or more after diagnosis, according to Cancer Research UK.
• This article was amended on 6 July 2023 to replace the main image.
