The rainforest nations of Brazil and Colombia have the best opportunity in a generation to drag the Amazon back from the abyss as they host three of the world’s most important environmental negotiations in the space of little more than a year.
In the process, their leaders – pacesetting Colombian president, Gustavo Petro, and the more cautious and contradictory Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – will offer up overlapping visions for the future of the Amazon, and the world’s path to net zero.
But these leftwing leaders need to align differing views on oil exploration and the speed of change if they are to sway global environmental priorities. On this, there are genuine hopes, but also causes for scepticism.
For those seeking a solution to the world’s polycrisis, all roads lead from Cali in western Colombia to Belém in northern Brazil. Cop16, the global biodiversity summit, opens in Cali next week, followed by the G20 summit of major economies in Rio de Janeiro in mid-November, where Lula will bet on a trifecta of environmental justice issues: energy transition, sustainable development and the fight against hunger. A year later, he will follow up on a bigger stage: the Cop30 climate summit in Belém.
Both Lula and Petro have demonstrated leadership on reducing deforestation. Between 2022 and 2023, Brazil saw a 36% decrease and Colombia 49%, according to the World Resources Institute. Both are committed to zero net deforestation by 2030. And both have been influenced by their exceptionally astute and committed environment ministers: Marina Silva in Brazil and Susana Muhamad in Colombia.
The two leaders have recognised the crucial role played by Indigenous peoples in conserving areas of great biodiversity and carbon storage. And they agree on the dire threat posed by the climate crisis, the need for a strong international response and the importance of environmental justice – the view that stabilising the climate goes hand-in-hand with addressing inequality.
But Petro and Lula differ sharply on oil and gas exploitation. Petro has been a global leader in committing Colombia to a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty, refusing to sign any new licences for petroleum exploration, and attempting – so far without success – to persuade other Amazonian nations to block fossil fuel extraction from the rainforest. In contrast, Lula wants Brazil to expand production to become the world’s fourth biggest oil producer, and has given his backing for the state oil company Petrobras to explore waters at the mouth of the Amazon, despite resistance from his own environment minister.
“Whether in stance, commitments or actions, the Colombian government is far ahead of the Brazilian government” on fossil fuels, says Marcio Astrini of the Brazilian Climate Observatory. “It is clear that it is Petro’s government that challenges Lula to be more ambitious in the climate agenda, not the other way around.”
Political realities and personal histories help to explain the contrasting views. Petro, a 64-year-old former mayor of Bogotá and ex-member of the M-19 guerrilla movement, heads the Humane Colombia party, which was only formed in 2011 and has been shaped by anti-imperialism and a quest for peace in a country racked by decades of civil war. Lula cut his political teeth as a negotiator for a steelworkers’ union and co-founded the Workers’ party in the 1980s. Now in his third term as president, he has proved a pragmatic leader, whose state-building instincts often lean towards the 20th century, with a strong emphasis on fossil fuel production and big infrastructure.
The severity of the climate crisis should nudge them closer together, says Natalie Unterstell, a former Brazilian government adviser now working for the Talanoa Institute, a climate policy think tank: “This is the last chance. Colombia is standing out. But I don’t see that as a threat, but rather as a stimulus for Lula to catch up.”
The growing scale of the problem in Brazil was spelled out at the United Nations general assembly last month when Lula described the most severe Amazon drought for 45 years, the worst flooding in the south since 1941 and fires that have spread across the country, devouring 5 million hectares in August. To tackle this, he said the world needed to act in unity. “We have already done a lot, but we know that more has to be done,” he said.
Lula has focused on building international alliances and securing global funds for nature and climate, while supporting often contradictory projects at home – such as a new railway and upgraded road through the Amazon. By contrast, Petro sometimes seems to surge so far forward that he leaves himself isolated. His progressive moves on the fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty and debt-for-nature swaps have so far not been emulated by other Amazonian nations.
Oscar Soria, an Argentinian director of the Common Initiative, a thinktank that specialises in global environmental policy, says: “Lula is like a seasoned chef with a Michelin star – he’s got the skills and reputation, but every once in a while, he serves up a dish (like oil contracts) that leaves the critics puzzled. While Petro is like a breakthrough artist … he’s bringing fresh ideas for climate and biodiversity, but some listeners aren’t quite ready.”
Soria believes a combination of Lula’s realpolitik and Petro’s idealism is needed if South America is to recreate the mood of hope and trust that prevailed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Together they need to secure substantial funding from rich nations. “If both Cops make progress on this topic, there is hope for progress for the rest of the decade,” Soria predicted.
But how much power do they have? Domestically, both leaders face hostile congresses and have seen their approval ratings dip. Petro is in a full-blown conflict with the legislature and has threatened to issue the national budget by presidential decree. While there have been some gains, many of his most ambitious nature and climate goals have been held up.
On the global stage, where wealthier nations tend to have more influence, Lula and Petro’s room for manoeuvre is limited. But observers have praised the diplomatic skills of Muhamad, who will serve as president of Cop16. “She has a very smart approach,” says Laura Rico, campaign director of activist organisation Avaaz. In advance talks, Muhamad pushed Indigenous land issues up the agenda and promoted the idea that nature and climate need to be treated together.
They will need international allies. Global market pressure, the legacy of colonialism and weak government have made South America a byword for the degradation of nature. The continent has lost an estimated 95% of its wildlife population since 1970. It has suffered the worst deforestation and is usually where the largest number of environmental defenders are murdered. Now, the Amazon – the world’s biggest rainforest – is beset by fire and drought.
“We are living in a climate emergency. The goals of reducing emissions have to increase exponentially,” says climate scientist and Amazon expert Carlos Nobre, who was one of the first to warn that the Amazon was degrading towards the point of no return. He urges the leaders of Brazil and Colombia to work together: “We hope that both of them will host those Cops with great leadership.”
