The ACC got what it deserved from the basketball selection committee. No complaints. It also, thanks to the vagaries of the bracket, has a chance to do what it did last March all over again.
While only five teams — for the second year in a row — is an aberration by ACC standards, the teams that should have gotten in did, and the ones that didn’t make a strong enough case didn’t. Simple enough.
Clemson’s loss to Louisville was disqualifying on its own, and if you’re going to play a nonconference schedule as bad as the Tigers did, you better beat everyone. North Carolina was probably closer to making the field as one of the first four out than anyone expected them to be, but the Tar Heels had a million chances to remove any doubt and never did.
So: Five teams. Again. But slightly different. Last year, only Duke was seeded better than No. 8. For the second time in three years, no ACC team was seeded better than No. 4, but there are three of them on the 4-5 lines.
While it would be a surprise if three of five ACC teams make it to the Elite Eight again, it’s very much within the realm of possibility. All five were seeded about where the committee’s procedures said they should be, and the only real surprise was that Virginia and Duke both ended up in Orlando instead of Greensboro. (Weep not for the folks of the Gate City, their tickets will be sold and their bars will be full when the Big Blue horde descends. Kentucky fans can single-handedly end a local recession.)
Duke’s the hottest No. 5 seed in the field, and would likely draw a slumping Tennessee that’s lost seven of 11 if it beats Oral Roberts. (Max Abmas does have strong C.J. McCollum vibes, so maybe it’s a good thing Duke’s not going back to Greensboro.) A rematch with Purdue potentially looms, but Duke’s a different team than it was in November, and if anyone has the size to deal with Zach Edey, it’s Duke’s giant triumvirate of Dereck Lively, Kyle Filipowski and Ryan Young.
Virginia will join the Blue Devils in Orlando surrounded by two of the best mid-majors in the field in Charleston and Furman, but the Cavaliers are clearly the most talented team in that pod, especially with San Diego State is flying cross-country, always a hurdle. Virginia-Alabama, the presumed 1-4 matchup, would be an incredible strength-on-strength battle between Alabama’s athleticism and Virginia’s scheme. The Cavaliers have a chance there.
Miami has the best guards of anyone in its eight-team section of the bracket, and that includes Houston. The Cougars are a legit title contender, maybe even the best team in the field, but as the Hurricanes proved last year, they can beat anyone when Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller get going. The real question is the health of Norchad Omier, who badly sprained his ankle against Duke on Friday.
N.C. State got a great draw in Denver. Creighton’s lost four of seven and the Wolfpack is a matchup nightmare with two elite guards and D.J. Burns. The Bluejays have the size to handle Burns, but State’s a boom-or-bust tournament team, and if Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner get hot, the sky’s the limit. Creighton may even prove a tougher out than Baylor, another team that limped to the finish. (Of course, so did N.C. State, but the Wolfpack still has a chance as long as Clemson doesn’t find a way to sneak into the field.)
And Pitt has to go through Dayton, like Notre Dame a year ago, but the Panthers have the mental toughness to handle that grind and the shot-makers to surprise. They should feel at home in Greensboro having just been there, and Pitt won’t see anything in Iowa State or Xavier it hasn’t seen in the ACC. (Texas might be a different story.)
It’s hard to see another 14 wins on the table — or two teams in the Final Four — but it’s not difficult to see Duke or Miami taking a run at the Final Four, or the other three teams emerging from the first weekend. If anything’s missing, it’s that 8/9-seed path North Carolina had last year, where if you beat the 1 seed, you essentially become the 1 seed.
Duke (Purdue), Virginia (Alabama) and Miami (Houston) all face potentially significant roadblocks, but those are the kind of games the ACC has to win if it wants to flip the narrative on its season again. North Carolina beat Baylor and Miami beat Auburn last year. That opportunity is still out there.
The ACC, for the second straight year, was only worthy of five wins, and unlike last year there isn’t a high seed, like Duke was, with a smoother path to the FInal Four. If the conference wants to redeem itself again, it’s going to have to fight to do it. But any point worth proving is worth fighting to do it.
