SAN FRANCISCO — In the aftermath of Duke’s comeback against Michigan State last weekend, most of the attention – from fans and Tom Izzo alike – was focused on Jeremy Roach, and the way the Duke point guard took over the game in the final minutes, driving and attacking and making a critical 3-pointer that extended Duke’s late lead from one to four. The Blue Devils never looked back.
That was mildly unexpected from Roach, whose emergence was obvious over the latter part of Duke’s season even when the Blue Devils were struggling as a team. But he took it to a new level against the Spartans.
Less notice was taken of the way Paolo Banchero turned the game on four key possessions, twice driving on Joey Hauser and then stonewalling Hauser’s own drive at the other end, in part because it was the kind of individual dominance everyone expected from Banchero from the moment he showed up on campus but has only shown in flashes.
He flashed very brightly against Michigan State, especially in the exact moments when Duke needed someone to emerge, winning a one-on-one battle with pure, raw strength and talent. He spun past Marcus Bingham Jr. through the lane for a layup to cut the Michigan State lead to three, backed down Hauser on the left wing to set up a Trevor Keels 3-pointer that tied the score at 72 and then, from almost the same spot, bulled his way past Hauser to give Duke its first lead in more than four minutes.
Immediately at the other end, Hauser tried to do the same to Banchero, spinning from the right wing to the left side of the lane, but Banchero held his ground and swatted away Hauser’s shot. Banchero finished with a game-high 19 points, but was at his individual best when Duke really needed him.
“I just wanted to be aggressive,” Banchero said. “I think early in the second half I was attacking and then I got back to settling. So down that last stretch I just wanted to get to the rim and put pressure on the rim.”
It’s exactly what Duke is going to need again against Texas Tech on Thursday night, with the Red Raiders’ hard-nosed no-middle defense designed to take away exactly the kind of drives that Roach and Trevor Keels and Wendell Moore used to take apart the Spartans last weekend. Those won’t be easy against the Red Raiders, who try to steer attacks toward the baseline or smother them with help in the lane.
The Blue Devils have been at their worst offensively when they settle for jump shots, which is exactly what Texas Tech wants from its opponents. Duke will have to find alternatives if it doesn’t want to gamble on its hit-or-miss outside shooting, although some of that is inevitable; the Blue Devils spent part of the open portion of Wednesday’s practice working on corner 3s and drive-and-kick-and-pass 3-pointers.
“They swarm the ball. There’s two, three guys at the ball as soon as you get in the paint,” Banchero said. “So not just trying to go one-on-one and isolate. There’s not going to be a lot of opportunities for that with the way they play, so it’s really just going to come down to moving the ball, playing together, and taking quality shots as a team.”
But if Duke is going to create alternatives against Texas Tech, Banchero, their best and most capable player, is their best hope — overpowering or backing down defenders to create space for himself and others. And if there’s one weakness in the Texas Tech defense, the best in the country in defensive efficiency (per Ken Pomeroy), it’s in the mid-range, where Banchero excels.
According to Synergy, Texas Tech’s opponents shoot 40.7% on 2-pointers from 17 feet out, compared to 33.0% from shorter range — in the 11th percentile nationally for a defense that’s otherwise arguably the best. Banchero, meanwhile, shoots 50.0% on mid-range shots, in the 93rd percentile and better than from inside 17 feet.
This is also as close to a home game as Banchero is going to get, in the same time zone as his Seattle hometown at least, in front of friends and family. A rematch with Gonzaga — and fellow star freshman/recruiting rival Chet Holmgren — looms if Duke can win, not to mention the continuing and unabating pressure that has surrounded this team for months and only continues to compress as the end inevitably approaches for Krzyzewski.
The Blue Devils were able to stave off elimination against Michigan State in a scenario where they had often failed. They’ll need Banchero just as much, if not more, Thursday.
