The first thing to know about Lucas Paqueta is he is not Youri Tielemans. This is what makes this link very interesting indeed.
Arsenal clearly want to sign a player that is going to be progressive for them, direct and creative. Paqueta is certainly these things as well as being a threat on goal, but he typically occupies a more advanced area of the pitch compared to Tielemans.
When Arsenal brought in Fabio Vieira it was not just a surprise because the move came out of nowhere, but it was a deal for an attacking midfielder when a central midfielder was believed to be the priority.
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So, for more than £30 million to be invested in this specific summer was quite something. Now with these Paqueta links, which are being widely reported at this stage in both France and England, it would make little sense to then buy both.
The debate to choose between the two is a difficult one because, in my personal view, Paqueta is the better player and would offer more to Arsenal than Youri Tielemans in the final third. But, do the club's needs elsewhere in the midfield make Tielemans the more sensible player?
There’s little debate about their offensive comparisons, Paqueta dominates. 11 goals to Tielemans' seven, 0.28 goals per 90 to the Belgian’s 0.14 and a superior shot per 90 for Paqueta of 2.76 compared to 1.64 according to Wyscout.
Creatively too this follows. Paqueta wins in assists (6 > 5) expected assists (7.66 > 4.13) and passes into the box per 90 (2.92 > 2.47). Even despite Tielemans’ well-known technical ability on the ball, Paqueta thrashes the Belgian in dribbles per 90 (4.91 > 1.74) with a slightly better dribble success percentage (55.3% > 54.1%).
But defensively Tielemans is, expectedly, stronger in a number of areas. In defensive duel success (60.5% > 57.4%) interceptions per 90 (3.74 > 2.53) and recoveries per 90 (6.69 > 5.84).
However, not in all areas. Paqueta attempts more defensive duels per 90 (7.7 > 6.32) of his losses less are in his own half (23% > 35.2%) and importantly for a Mikel Arteta squad he bests him in pressures per 90 with ease (24.1 > 16.7) with more pressures resulting in a turnover of possession (32.6% > 29.9%).
Therefore, despite the Brazilian’s slightly more advanced role, his defensive attributes shouldn’t be dismissed. He will cost more, and quite a lot more to be clear.
However, with reports suggesting the Gunners have shifted focus from the expensive Lisandro Martinez to the bargain opportunity of Alex Grimaldo, they would have more to play with for the midfield. Making a shift in target very assailable.
Many comparisons have been made between Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola. The signing of Lucas Paqueta would certainly add to these with the Manchester City model of having a cluster of high-quality attacking players who rotate and interchange leading to huge success.
Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Jack Grealish, Ilkay Gundogan, Julian Alvarez and Erling Haaland are the current crop. City have been able to allow Raheem Sterling and, having sold him to Arsenal, Gabriel Jesus to leave.
Paqueta would join Jesus alongside Eddie Nketiah, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Fabio Vieira, Emile Smith-Rowe, Martin Odegaard and, for the moment, Nicolas Pepe and Reiss Nelson. There are rumours a wide player might still be on the Arsenal agenda too.
With four competitions with a return to Europe, it is clear Arteta wants as many options as he can have. Paqueta would add to this where Tielemans would not necessarily be in the same mould but opting against the Belgian would surely leave questions about the need to recruit at defensive midfield?
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