KEY POINTS
- Balchunas and Seyffart believe combined $BTC and $ETH ETFs are likely to get approval first
- They believe Litecoin and Hedera ETFs may be more likely to get approved before $SOL or $XRP ETFs
- The legal complexities surrounding Solana and $XRP may delay the ETFs' approval
Bloomberg analysts are expecting that new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will get approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) next year as a new Chair is set to replace Gary Gensler.
While a new wave of crypto ETFs is likely in the coming year, Bloomberg senior ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart believe approvals for Solana (SOL) and XRP won't come first in line.
Which ETFs May Come Out First?
For the Bloomberg analysts, it is more likely that proposed dual Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETFs) from Hashdex, Franklin Templeton and Bitwise will be approved in the coming year.
They reiterated that while they do expect new crypto ETFs in 2025, they won't be approved all at once.
We expect a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs next year, albeit not all at once. First out is likely the btc + eth combo ETFs, then prob Litecoin (bc its fork of btc = commodity), then HBAR (bc not labeled security) and then XRP/Solana (which have been labeled securities in pending… pic.twitter.com/29vMdciZxE
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 17, 2024
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have been performing well in recent weeks, and while the status of Ether as a security or commodity technically remains unclear due to a lack of official confirmation from the SEC, it can be safe to say that new financial products around the two cryptocurrencies are more likely to get regulatory approval.
Litecoin, Hedera May Come Next
In Seyffart's Tuesday outlook regarding crypto ETFs, he wrote that Litecoin (LTC) and Hedera (HBAR) ETFs are more likely to be approved first due the following reasons:
- Litecoin is a fork of Bitcoin, which may be deemed as a commodity by the SEC, considering how the Wall Street regulator has confirmed that BTC is not a security
- The Hedera network's native crypto asset hasn't been called a security, at least not by the Gensler SEC
Balchunas and Seyffart do have concerns around demand for LTC and HBAR ETFs even if they have "higher odds than others of approval."
Notably, no other issuer than Canary Capital has filed for a Litecoin and Hedera ETF, suggesting that other crypto ETF issuers may not be interested in the said crypto assets or have yet to look into viability factors.
$SOL, $XRP ETFs May Come Last
Finally, the industry experts said they aren't expecting SOL and XRP ETFs to be approved soon even if there are more issuers who filed for the funds. Why is approval more elusive for the said funds?
- Solana and XRP are both tagged as securities in SEC lawsuits
- Ripple, the largest corporate holder of XRP, has yet to completely shake off an SEC lawsuit since the regulator pushed to appeal a 2023 ruling
Better Days Under a New Government
Despite potential delays in getting new crypto ETFs, there is much optimism for the broader crypto industry under a new administration.
Aside from choosing a pro-crypto and pro-innovation finance leader to replace Gensler in the SEC's leadership, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has also announced the first-of-its-kind crypto-centric role in the White House to be taken up by David Sacks.
With many of Trump's cabinet picks known for their support for the crypto industry, it can be said that the booming sector may even see memecoin ETFs in the long run.
