A low pressure area, a precursor to a cyclone, has formed over the south-eastern Bay of Bengal and this would likely morph into a cyclone by May 10, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
Cyclone Mocha, though it is yet to be formally named so, is likely to rage along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and head north towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. As of now, it is expected to eventually grow into a very severe cyclonic storm. In the five-step classification of cyclones, the relatively weakest is classified as a cyclonic storm (65-68 kmph) and the strongest a super cyclonic storm. (>222 kmph). A severe cyclonic storm (89-117 kmph) is just one step above a cyclonic storm.
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The agency uses Doppler Weather Radars, where four of them, situated along India’s eastern coast, can track the incoming windspeeds to forecast the formation and eventual path. Most of the weather models tracking the cyclone expect the system to move towards the central Bay of Bengal, approach India’s eastern coast and eventually turn east towards Bangladesh and Myanmar.
The development of the cyclone would mean light or moderate rainfall at most places over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands starting Monday that would become heavier by May 12. The sea over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea would be “very rough” until May 12 and fisherfolk would do best to keep away from the seas, the IMD’s latest advisory warned on Monday.
May is normally associated with cyclonic activity around India’s eastern and western coasts, and precedes the development of the monsoon, that normally arrives over the Indian mainland by June first week. This is the first tropical cyclone that will be forming in the region this year.
