The polling expert Prof John Curtice has warned of low turnout at this year’s general election, in part because voters regard Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer to be as “dull as dishwater”.
Speaking at an event for the Citizens Advice charity, Curtice cited boring leaders as one of three reasons why the voting numbers would be down.
“We have two party leaders, three if you include Ed Davey – none of them enthuse the electorate, none of them is popular, all of them are regarded as dull as dishwater,” he told an online seminar on predictions for the election year.
The two other factors likely to suppress turnout were the ideological similarity between Labour and the Conservatives, and opinion polls suggesting Labour will win comfortably, he said.
“The difference between the parties is relatively narrow because the Labour party has veered quite strongly back towards the centre, although the Conservatives are trying to create some ideological space between them.”
On the polls, Curtice said: “If the opinion polls at least remain where they are, it will be all over bar the shouting. So what’s the point of turning out to vote?”
He added: “So you have an election where there isn’t much diversity in the parties, it’s obvious who is going to win, and the parties are extremely boring – that’s not a recipe for high turnout.”
Curtice said voters needed an impetus to cast their ballots.
“If we give people a reason to vote, they’ll turn out, but those [three] circumstances are the very kinds of circumstances that incline people to stay at home.”
He said the apparent predictability of the election could change if opinion polls began to narrow, which could boost turnout.
A low turnout was unlikely to have an impact on the outcome, he said. “Would it make any difference? Probably not, because it will probably affect supporters of all the parties.”
Electoral turnout in the UK peaked in the 1950 general election, at almost 84%. It hovered well above 70% for the rest of the 20th century. In 2001 it slumped to 59.4% when Tony Blair was elected for a second time. It has improved slightly since, reaching 68.8% in 2017 and 67.3% in 2019.
