Italy’s state railway has announced plans to run between London and Paris by 2029 as part of a €1bn (£860m) investment in services through the Channel Tunnel and beyond.
Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane (FS) says it will use trains inspired by its Frecciarossa (“Red Arrow”) express services in continental Europe to establish competition against incumbent, Eurostar.
The group, which has a 30 per cent stake in Avanti West Coast and runs the C2C franchise between London and south Essex, is studying possible extensions of the new service to Lyon, Marseille and Milan and is evaluating a possible reopening of Ashford International.
Since the Covid pandemic, Eurostar has enjoyed extremely strong demand on its rail link between France and the UK. Booking a day ahead, of the 15 departures on the route only four have seats available – with a minimum fare of £235 one way. The easyJet air fare from Luton is over £100 cheaper.
But patient passengers can look forward to competition. Stefano Antonio Donnarumma, chief executive of the Italian enterprise, said: “High-speed rail networks are the backbone of efficient and environmentally friendly mobility, and by expanding our presence on key corridors, we are not just investing in infrastructure and innovation, but also in the future of European transport.
“More competition will help to create a more efficient and customer-oriented industry, offering a real alternative to air travel”.
The rail link between London and the Channel Tunnel is current operating at only 50 per cent capacity, according to London St Pancras Highspeed, which runs the line. Its chief executive, Robert Sinclair, said: “We welcome the role that new and existing operators can play in increasing capacity on the high-speed line between London St Pancras and the Channel Tunnel.
“Greater competition will offer more choice for passengers, lower fares, and access to new destinations, all of which support a shift to more sustainable travel.
“Encouraging more people to choose rail over air is one of the most effective ways to cut transport emissions. We are excited about working with all operators that share our ambition to grow the market, attract new passengers, and realise the full environmental and economic potential of high-speed rail.”
FS says it is working with Evolyn, a Spanish start-up that had previously said it wanted to begin services on the route by 2025.
Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group has also expressed an interest in running trains between London and Paris, as has a start-up named Gemini.
But speaking to The Independent last month, Susanne Kries – co-author of Europe by Rail – predicted: “It will be a FS Frecciarossa which first competes with Eurostar."
The FS announcement follows two significant developments in the past 10 days. London St Pancras Highspeed announced discounts on infrastructure charges to operators planning new routes. And a study from the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) concluded that “some capacity can be made available” for competitors at Eurostar’s Temple Mills maintenance depot in east London.
A Eurostar spokesperson said: “Emerging competition in the international high-speed rail sector is another example of positive signals indicating growing demand for rail in Europe. Growing cross-Channel rail is a race which Eurostar is firmly in, and we welcome competition.
“We’re confident in our leadership in this sector and excited about the future. That’s why we’re investing in a new fleet of 50 trains, upgrading our stations, and working with partners to improve capacity and connectivity. Our ambition is to grow the market together — giving more people the opportunity to choose rail and enjoy world-class service."
FS raised the prospect of longer links from London, including to Milan, and Marseille via Lyon. The latter was a Eurostar route that was dropped in response to both Covid and Brexit.
Mark Smith, the international rail guru known behind The Man in Seat 61, said: “A ready-made network London-Paris-Lyon-Avignon-Aix-Marseille/Turin-Milan is quite exciting, I must admit.”
But Adam Parkinson, founder of the GoLink Advisory Group, said the prospect of competition running within four years is over-ambitious.
“The Channel Tunnel is a complex piece of railway infrastructure. Rolling stock which operates on this route is bespoke to meet strict fire and emergency egress safety regulations.
“Despite multiple promises and claims from aspiring operators on this route, it is simply not feasible for any new entrant to start operations earlier than 2030s as there is at minimum a five-year lead time for new rolling stock from the point of financing.
“Even if a new rolling stock order was placed in 2025, our best estimate would be for a 2032 operations start. This is based on current factory capacity with the major European rolling stock manufacturers, plus gaining international approval for safety and operational standards – which adds further lead times.”
Eurostar mothballed two stations in Kent after Brexit: Ebbsfleet International and Ashford International. FS said an evaluation is under way to run trains to and from Ashford.
High-speed rail competition is flourishing in Spain, where the national operator Renfe is in competition against French-owned Ouigo and Iryo, part-owned by FS. The Madrid-Barcelona rail distance, just over 500km/300 miles, is almost identical to London-Paris. But fares for short-notice trips are typically €40 (£34).
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