A fresh warning has been issued over the future of schools in London as the birth rate falls.
Increasing numbers of schools across the capital face closure or mergers as they struggle to balance their budgets in the face of falling demand for places.
Ian Edwards, executive member for children and young people at London Councils, said schools were facing “extremely difficult decisions” as they grappled with the impact of the drop in the birth rate.
A number of schools have already closed down, including the 300-year-old Archbishop Tenison’s School in Oval, and Carlton Primary School in Camden. Others will merge despite protests from parents, including Colvestone Primary in Hackney, which author Michael Rosen tried to save.
Mr Edwards said: “London’s falling birth rate has led to most London boroughs seeing a reduction in the number of pupils beginning primary and secondary education and this has implications for the future of schools across the capital.
“Some of the excess capacity might be repurposed to provide SEND (special education needs and disability) or additional resource provision places but it is probable that some schools will have to merge or, in more extreme circumstances, close.”
He added: “While it is not unusual for London’s birth rate to fluctuate, the downward trend in birth rate is having, and will continue to have, an impact on demand for school places which schools, boroughs and the Department for Education will need to manage.”
Schools are funded based on the number of pupils they have, which means when children leave they lose money. But schools still have to pay for a teacher even if a class is not full. Many are struggling to balance their budgets and have been forced to cut after-school clubs and trips.
The drop in funding has raised fears that London’s excellent education standards, which see children here getting the best exam results in the country, will be harmed, as more schools make cuts such as narrowing the curriculum or slashing the number of teachers and teaching assistants.
Mr Edwards said: “London has some of the best schools in the country, with over 90 per cent of all our schools being rated good or outstanding by Ofsted. However, the drop in demand for places means schools face extremely difficult decisions over how to balance their budgets. We are working diligently to ensure that this level of high-quality education is accessible for all children entering schools in the coming years and allow our schools to thrive despite this difficult climate.”
Meanwhile, there is a growing push for local authorities to ensure that disused school buildings are kept for educational purposes and not sold off for housing, in the hope that London’s birth rate increases in the future.
The site of the St Martin-In-The Fields High School for Girls in Lambeth, which will close this summer due to a lack of pupils, has been saved for educational use and will be turned into a therapeutic centre for vulnerable pupils in the area. But there are fears that other empty school buildings could be sold off for commercial use.
London Councils, which represents every local authority in the capital, predicts that almost 8,000 fewer children will need school places over the next four years.
As well as the falling birth rate, the drop has been caused by families leaving London due to Brexit, and an exodus from the capital because of the pandemic and the cost of living crisis, the organisation said.
It is calling on the Government to ensure school funding keeps up with inflation, which will help schools cope with changing levels of demand for places. It also wants more powers for local authorities to work with academies — which currently are not under their control despite local authorities being responsible for managing school places.
