A colossal battle is brewing over the future of London’s airports as Labour prepares to rule on a wave of expansion plans that could add “another Heathrow” to the capital’s aviation capacity.
Five of the capital’s six airports are pressing ahead or considering proposals to massively increase their ability to handle flights and passengers, including new runways at Gatwick and Heathrow and a new terminal at Luton.
Two, at Stansted and London City, have already got the go-ahead from ministers, while two more, at Gatwick and Luton, are still in the planning process and waiting for sign-off.
The biggest and most controversial scheme of all, the £14 billion third runway proposal for Heathrow, is officially “under review” internally following the massive slump in international travel during the pandemic. But industry insiders think that the unexpectedly strong recovery to above pre-Covid 2019 levels means it is increasingly likely that Heathrow’s chief executive Thomas Woldbye will soon push the button on the project again — triggering another huge campaign of opposition, and presenting Labour with a big dilemma.
If all five London airports get the all-clear for their projects it will eventually add capacity for an extra 83.5 million passengers a year by the mid-2040s, roughly equivalent to the number currently using the west London hub each year.
While that is unlikely, last month’s decision by Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Transport Secretary Louise Haigh to overrule Labour-run Newham council and allow London City to increase the number of weekend and early morning flights has delighted the industry — but alarmed environmentalists.
Alethea Warrington, head of aviation, heat and energy at the climate charity Possible, said: “It is very worrying. The aviation industry is lobbying the Government so hard, when the narrative about airport expansion’s impact on growth is really, really flawed.” Stalling business travel meant it was only a small number of affluent leisure travellers who would benefit from the extra capacity, she said. She added: “I don’t see how this Government can possibly hope to be genuinely seen as a climate leader if it allows airport expansion.”
Downing Street has said that it is not opposed to new runways or terminals in principle so long as plans meet four tests: on economic growth, consistency with climate change obligations, noise pollution and air pollution. But airport bosses, including Mr Woldbye, Gatwick’s CEO Stewart Wingate, and Ken O’Toole, chief executive of Stansted’s parent company MAG, who attended the Labour conference in Liverpool last week, came away encouraged by Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves’s pledges to boost economic growth and infrastructure investment. Industry leaders believe it will be hard for the Government to reject all the plans.
Peter Campbell, head of public affairs for industry body AirportsUK, said: “What we have been hearing from the Labour Government and the Chancellor, even before the election, is that they are happy for airports to expand — the mood music is no longer knee-jerk against it.”
London is still the world’s biggest aviation city with its six airports handling 168 million passengers in 2023. But the post-pandemic travel boom means that capacity ceilings will be reached by the end of the decade on current trends that show no signs of weakening.
Heathrow
Plan: Third runway
Current capacity: 90 million
Future capacity: 120 million
Likely completion date: c 2040
Chance of take-off: 2.5/5
A third runway for Britain’s biggest aviation hub has been government policy since 2006 and finally cleared all its many legal obstacles in 2020. Officially, the hugely controversial project has been “under review” since the pandemic, but the remarkable bounce-back in passenger numbers means that it is almost certain to be adopted once again by Heathrow’s boss Thomas Woldbye. Heathrow passenger numbers are already above pre-pandemic levels again and the airport will soon reach its absolute capacity ceiling.
Gatwick
Plan: Northern runway
Current capacity: 40 million
Future capacity: 75 million
Likely completion date: 2030
Chance of take-off: 4/5
London’s second airport — the world’s busiest using just one runway — has also seen a dramatic bounce-back in passenger numbers. Its boss, Stewart Wingate, wants to upgrade the standby runway at a cost of £2.2 billion so it can be used for everyday operation and give a massive boost to Gatwick’s capacity. A panel of planning inspectors is due to give its formal recommendation to Government on the so-called Northern Runway proposal by late November, with a decision from ministers expected by February.
Stansted
Plan: Terminal extension
Current capacity: 35 million
Future capacity: 43 million
Likely completion date: 2028
Chance of take-off: 4.5/5
The Essex airport was given the all-clear for a major extension to its famous Norman Foster-designed terminal by the Planning Inspectorate in November. As with other airports around London, passengers have flooded back since the pandemic far more quickly than expected. The work will increase the size of the terminal by 16,500 sq metres, creating extra space with a bigger departure lounge and security hall as well as a greater range of shops, bars and restaurants. Construction will begin next year and will create one of the biggest single terminal buildings in the world.
Luton
Plan: New terminal
Current capacity: 19 million
Future capacity: 32 million
Likely completion date: 2045
Chance of take-off: 3/5
Luton also has ambitious plans for expansion, although they are at an earlier stage. The owners have applied for a Development Consent Order for a new terminal, and extra aircraft stands and taxiways. A Government decision on the application has already been delayed twice and will not come until early next year. Officials say they need more information from Luton about the environmental implications of the increase in capacity, which would not be fully delivered until the mid-2040s.
London City
Plan: Extra flights using existing infrastructure
Current capacity: 6.5 million
Future capacity: 9 million
Likely completion date: Immediate
Chance of take-off: 5/5
The great London airport expansion boom kicked off in August in one of the first decisions taken by Angela Rayner in her role as Communities Secretary. She signed off on City’s owners’ plans to increase capacity through more weekend and early morning flights despite opposition from local residents and Newham council. The call is seen by climate campaigners as a worrying precedent that will pave the way for a huge increase in flights over and around London over the coming decades.
