Battle ground Mandya is poised for a fierce contest between the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) where caste arithmetic and the redrawn political equations following the pre-poll alliance of the JD(S) with the BJP will play out in the electoral arena.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting the Old Mysore region on Sunday and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi soon after on April 17, underlining the importance of the region where the constituency lies.
The stage is set for a direct contest between the arch rivals as the incumbent MP Sumalatha Ambareesh, who won as an Independent in 2019 with the indirect support of the BJP, has decided to stay away from polls after initial reluctance and formally joined the BJP. This has queered the election pitch in the Cauvery heartland whose outcome will have a bearing on the future of the JD(S).
High stakes for JD(S)
For long, both the Congress and the JD(S) considered Mandya as their turf with the BJP rarely in picture. But in the 2023 Assembly polls, the Congress held sway by winning six of the eight seats under Mandya Parliamentary constituency which saw the consolidation of the votes of not only the dominant Vokkaliga community but also that of the Dalits and other backward classes, in its favour.
In the seat-sharing pact with the JD(S), the BJP has yielded Mandya, Kolar, and Hassan to its alliance partner, and former Chief Minister and JD(S) president H.D. Kumaraswamy has entered the fray from Mandya. The Congress has fielded Venkataramane Gowda or ‘’Star Chandru’’, who is making his maiden foray into electoral politics.
The outcome of the polls will be significant because the stakes are high for the JD(S) that is still struggling to recover lost ground after the rout of the 2023 Assembly elections. The party suffered its worst electoral debacle ever by winning only 19 seats across the State and only one out of eight seats from Mandya Parliamentary constituency, considered as its fortress.
Political future
The electoral verdict means more for the political future of the JD(S) as its marker as the first preferred party of the Vokkaligas and the farmers of Mandya is being questioned, whereas the BJP has nothing to lose.
In a district where the BJP was struggling to find a foothold, the Keregodu flag incident – in which a flag with the image of Hanuman was replaced by the national tricolour – led to communal tension in January this year. Though the JD(S) had ostensibly opposed the communal nature of the BJP’s electoral politics for years, it closed ranks with its alliance partner on this issue, resulting in the consolidation of the minority votes in favour of the Congress which feels vindicated of its view that the JD(S) lacks in secular commitment.
But in a district where agriculture is the primary occupation of nearly 90% of voters and the river Cauvery the lifeline, the dispute with the lower riparian State on water sharing presents a common cause cutting across caste and political spectrum.
And in an year of an unprecedented drought, Mr. Kumaraswamy is pitching himself and the JD(S) as someone to be trusted to uphold the interest of the farmers who have suffered massive crop loss in an election year.
Congress narrative
The Congress, on its part, has set the narrative of the Centre’s failure to devolve State’s share of taxes and delaying the release of funds for drought relief apart from highlighting the successful implementation of the guarantee schemes to offset the drought impact.
The pre-poll pact of the BJP-JD(S) is an alliance of convenience with both the parties trying to draw mutual benefit through consolidation of their respective vote banks – ie. Lingayats and Vokkaligas - to defeat a common political foe that is the Congress. Whether the Congress can hold on to its own and repeat the electoral success of last year’s Assembly polls or if the JD(S) retrieves lost ground is the moot question.
