With Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress deciding to go alone in the Lok Sabha poll in West Bengal, the stage seems to be set for a triangular contest in the State amid a clamour for minority votes.
According to political analysts, the seat sharing between the TMC, Congress and the CPI (Marxist) was highly unlikely from the beginning as the Banerjee-led outfit has never ceded any space to any Opposition party in the State.
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With the TMC pitted against the BJP and its INDIA bloc partners, it needs to keep intact its minority vote base, which constitutes 27% of the State’s population.
Political analysts also say that after the defeat in the 2021 Assembly election, the BJP too has softened its stance against Muslims, with its party leader Suvendu Adhikari reaching out to the community.
The BJP had posed a major challenge to the TMC in the last general election, winning 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the State. The TMC had won 22 and the Congress 2. The Left failed to open its account.
‘Minority votes crucial’
According to analysts, the minority votes will turn crucial as the BJP will try to consolidate its vote base among Hindus banking on a slew of nationalistic issues and the inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya.
Moreover, analysts feel the Congress and the Left may turn out to be a major concern for the TMC as the BJP is trying to consolidate in north and south-west Bengal. In central parts of the State, in districts of Malda and Murshidabad, the India bloc partners may try to win over the minority votes.
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Commenting on the TMC move to go solo, Biswanath Chakraborty, who teaches political science at Rabindra Bharati university, said, “The Trinamool Congress has never allowed any space to the Opposition in the State and wrested control of every municipality. It is not in the political character of the Trinamool Congress to ally with any other party.”
He said it would have been surprising if the TMC had reached any electoral understanding with the Congress.
The TMC also has ideological difference with the Left, which lost to the TMC in the 2011 Assembly poll after almost three decades of rule in the State.
However, political analysts say the rejuvenated youth and student brigade of the CPI(M) and the Congress may pose a challenge to the TMC when it comes to getting minority votes.
Professor Chakraborty feels that if the Congress could carry out a good campaign across the country, a section of minority votes can tilt towards the party.
The Congress party had won two seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls – Baharampur and Malda Dakshin – both constituencies with significant minority population.
