Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Air Force Falcons look to fly high once more in 2023 and take down the James Madison Dukes. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
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The cadets hope to extend a five-game bowl winning streak.
LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL: James Madison Dukes (11-1, 7-1 Sun Belt) vs. Air Force Falcons (8-4, 5-3 Mountain West)
WHEN: Saturday, December 23 — 1:30 PM MT/12:30 PM PT
WHERE: Amon G. Carter Stadium; Fort Worth, TX
WEATHER: Cloudy with a chance of showers, high of 67 degrees
TV: ABC
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ABC, by following this link.
RADIO: The James Madison broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Morris Insurance and Financial Services Broadcast Network, including flagship 550 AM and 92.1 FM (WSVA) in Harrisonburg. The Air Force broadcast can be found on 740 AM (KVOR) in Colorado Springs and 104.3 FM The Fan in Denver.
SERIES RECORD: This is the first meeting between James Madison and Air Force.
LAST GAME: James Madison defeated Coastal Carolina on the road, 56-14, while Air Force lost to Boise State on the road, 27-19.
WEBSITES: JMUSports.com, the official James Madison athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): James Madison | Air Force
ODDS: James Madison -1
SP+ PROJECTION: James Madison by 8.1
FEI PROJECTION: James Madison by 6.9
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: James Madison 58.99% win probability (28.29-21.61)
Darlings of the Group of Five for much of the 2023 season, James Madison, will try and earn their first Bowl win. Standing in the way of their potential 12th win and inaugural Bowl victory are the Air Force Fightin’ Falcons.
It’s truly been an impressive season for JMU, who just entered the FBS. Despite some frankly ridiculous NCAA policies which prevented them from playing for a Conference Championship in the Sun Belt (as a deemed probation year at the FBS level), which they were far and away the top team of, they still find themselves at the doorstep of a season complete with Bowl hardware and national ranking. Not too bad for a team that was competing at the FCS level just one year ago.
Air Force on the other hand was right up there with the Dukes atop the class of the Group of Five programs, right until the calendar turned to November. Even since that devastating loss to Army, which was their first of the season after starting 8-0, they have yet to win a game.
In fact, it’s fair to say the Air Force team that played the last four games of the season hardly resembled that which began the season with an eight-game surge. There are a number of reasons that wins have eluded the Falcons, many of which remain as they face off against a very formidable opponent in Fort Worth, Texas. But don’t assume JMU will just roll the Falcon’s as clear favorites in this matchup. Air Force is not going to be like any other team the Dukes have faced this year. And just ask their last four Bowl opponents what it’s like playing Air Force in December; Baylor, Louisville, Wazzu and South Alabama provide a cautionary tale.
Here’s how the Dukes and Falcons can find a path to victory to finish 2023.
Another step closer to game day.#GoDukes pic.twitter.com/9SLD3aRPWV
— JMU Football (@JMUFootball) December 21, 2023
Three Keys to a James Madison Victory
1. Tackles For Loss
Nothing derails an Air Force drive quite like Tackles for Loss (TFL’s). The Falcon offense is designed for modest but consistent against, down after down. Coincidentally, the Air Force defense also thrived on this philosophy, because when their offense is sustaining long clock grinding drives, it limits possessions and opportunities for the opposition.
TFL’s happen to be the Dukes specialty though. No one has collected more tackles behind the line of scrimmage than JMU. They’ve gathered 45 sacks on the season as part of that collection. If they can carry that play behind the Air Force line of scrimmage, it will be a very long day for an offense that has had their share of struggles lately.
2. Splash Plays
It’s no secret that JMU likes to chuck the ball around, and their transfer quarterback-to-be, Jordan McLoud, is quite good at it. Stop me if you heard this one before, but Air Force is going to have their hands full with another talented transfer portal player.
McCloud threw 32 touchdowns this year, and his two favorite targets Reggie Brown and Elijah Sarratt both averaged over 80 receiving yards per game. Brown in particular averaged 19.8 yards per catch. Those are Jalen Robinette numbers for you throwback enthusiasts.
This is critical to point out because during the Falcon’s late season nose dive, they were surrendering far too many big plays. Granted, they were often times against All-American players such as Ricky White and Ashton Jeanty, but their opponent on Saturday is every bit as capable of gashing them for large chunks of yardage.
3. Early Lead
Similar to early down victories mentioned in the first key, forcing an Air Force offense that has become inconsistent to play from behind could help pave the path to victory. Even if Zac Larrier is able to go for the Falcons, the offense hasn’t shown the kind of punch their opponents have, in particular with an ability to get quick strike scores. Falling behind early would be a big problem against what’s been a very stingy defense. The fact that the Bolts have yet to win a game when entering the 3rd quarter behind is evidence this should be a concern.
Looking to extend the streak on Saturday 😤 pic.twitter.com/vhWCn53RZo
— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) December 20, 2023
Three Keys to an Air Force Victory
1. Early Down Success
The ability to move the ball on early down sets the tone for the entire Air Force gameplan. Not just the offense.
Early down success for this offense is a steady appetite of three or four yard gains. Three yards at a clip isn’t exactly eye popping in today’s game, but it’s exactly what this team feeds on. It has such a cumulative effect by building momentum, establishing confidence, wearing out the defense, and limiting the opposition’s offensive possessions.
I would take it a step further and say that early down success has to lead to early game points. As mentioned earlier, they are going to need touchdowns to beat James Madison. To quote the immortal John Kreese “Strike First. Strike Hard. No Mercy.”. Air Force is 5-0 when scoring first this season.
2. Protect the Ball
Awaiting the Falcons is a JMU team that is one of the best nationally in turnover margin, at +.75. And it’s no coincidence that the Air Force late season collapse coincides with a significant increase in turnovers.
To date, Air Force has put the ball on the ground 21 times, losing 11 of those fumbles. Even if recovered, those fumbles are usually resulting in significant damage to their drives by lost yardage. And the Dukes are well versed at helping other teams forfeit possessions, forcing 21 turnovers on the season.
3. Details
The thing Air Force prides itself on is being detail oriented. I mean how else could a team that is clearly disadvantaged when it comes to recruiting and player development be so successful if they don’t find other ways to get an edge.
The offensive scheme they run is based on timing, precision, and chemistry. That leaks into all three phases of their game. It’s in part why a team that has gone four deep at cornerback and two to three deep all over the field, including quarterback, are still able to reel off an eight-win season.
You can only play who is healthy and available, and one of the things they do better than anyone is prepare the parts so they are interchangeable (to an extent) and can be plugged in to keep the machine humming.
Blown coverage, poor mesh point on a handoff, or missed blocks can be game changers on Saturday. The details matter. Executing at an elite level will be required to win this game.
Prediction
It would be lazy to just point to the last month of Air Force football as reason to pack it in on the season. But the reality is there were a lot of warts revealed on a team that looked really good climbing up to 17th in the AP Polls at one point. That seems like a lifetime ago quite honestly.
Meanwhile, James Madison has kept piling on victories. They enter this game with the nation’s most stout run defense, giving up just 2 yards per carry, and around 60 total rush yards per game. Anything close to that kind of success against Air Force will not just guarantee victory, but likely a not-so competitive game.
What I would suggest though, look at the schedules of these two teams and the scores. As bad as losses to Army and Hawai’i looked, those two defeats at the hands of the Mountain West Championship teams, Boise State and UNLV aren’t quite so bad. I’m not sure JMU would have fared any better playing either team at the time Air Force did.
I expect both teams to have their hands full with the particular niche’ each’s opponent presents. The way the Dukes sling the ball all over the field poses a big problem in my opinion. And that is no indictment on the Air Force secondary that features the best defensive back in the country, Trey Taylor. JMU proved week in and week out, they can execute a passing scheme at an elite level.
I expect the Air Force offense to be the deciding factor in this game. There are so many unknowns with injury entering this game, it really can change the complexion of things. Whether it’s Larrier, Jensen Jones or John Busha, they need to play a clean game and rely on that veteran ‘Diesel’ offensive line.
The defense will step up and make plays through the game as they did all season, But if they expect to lean on them to keep this a single digit game to win, that is going to result in a disappointing trip home from the Lone Star State.
There are a lot of very proud players suiting up for the last time on both sidelines. For Air Force, it’s senior laden with players who elected and fulfilled their four plus year commitment to the United States Air Force Academy and see the mission through with their teammates. Combine that with the edge a veteran head coach like Troy Calhoun gives you, versus JMU who is breaking in the new head-man as Frank Cignetti heads to middle-America, and I actually expect an Air Force win.
The 8-0 Air Force team that started the year is still in that locker room and on that sideline. Even if impacted by health, it’s a team that’s better than many. That includes an 11-1 James Madison Dukes team.
Air Force 27, James Madison 24
