The political landscape of Greater Manchester will be settled for another year as voter's go to the polls this week in the local elections.
In a major test of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's premiership and the Conservative government after another year of political turmoil, voters will choose their voices in our town halls at the ballot box on May 4.
Mr Sunak is the third Prime Minister in Number 10 since voters last when to the polls in local elections - Boris Johnson resigned in September last year and Liz Truss, the shortest-serving prime minister, resigned after six weeks in the October.
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Political analysts predict little change in Greater Manchester, but there's always a shock or two. And this year marks the first time voters will need to bring suitable identification with them to cast their ballots after a controversial new law launched by the Government to tackle fraud, despite figures revealing few cases over recent years. In Greater Manchester, the move has been dubbed as 'a solution where no problem exists', amid fears the law is stacked against both young and old voters.
Voters without an eligible form of ID will need a Voter Authority Certificate.
The deadline to apply for a free certificate passed on Tuesday, but figures reveal just over 63,000 people applied in time, a fraction of the estimated two million who currently don't have the correct forms of ID to cast a vote.
There are fears voters will forget to bring their ID with them to polling stations and won't bother to return - meaning turn-out figures across Greater Manchester could be affected.
So-called 'all out' elections will be held at six councils - Bolton, Stockport, Oldham, Wigan, Trafford and Tameside - with every seat being contested. Should there be any political changes, those authorities, particularly Bolton and Stockport, appear most likely to record any shocks, although Labour's dominance across Greater Manchester continues to stand firm.
Ballot papers will be verified and counted overnight in Bolton, Salford and Tameside, with results expected to be declared in the early hours, subject to any recounts. The remaining seven town halls should declare on Friday afternoon.
The Manchester Evening News takes a detailed look at each town hall in turn in the run up to May 4.
Bolton
Con 25, Lab 19, Lib Dem 5, Farnworth and Kearsley First 3, Horwich and Blackrod First Independents 2, One Kearsley 2, Bolton Independents 1, Crompton Independents 1, Little Lever and Darcy Lever First 1, Independent 1.
One of the three council's counting overnight and due to declare results in the early hours of Friday morning, Bolton is being billed as key battleground, with every council seat up for grabs in all-out elections and both Labour and the Conservatives hoping to do enough to win a majority.
It will be a harder task for Labour, who need 12 gains, than the Tories, who need five new seats.
The only borough in Greater Manchester controlled by the Tories, Bolton remained in no overall control after last year's elections. The Conservatives gained a seat, while Labour increased their tally by two. The borough has been in no overall control since 2019, but has been run by the Conservatives under a minority administration through an agreement with smaller parties.
A total of 246 candidates are standing for 60 seats in the borough with each of the 20 wards set to elect three councillors.
Stockport
Lib Democrats 28, Lab, including Labour and Co-operative, 22, Con 4, Independent 7, Green 3.
Stockport has not been under 'no overall control' since 2010, and it is unlikely any one party will emerge with a majority at these all-out elections.
The Lib Dems have run the town hall for the last 12 months after emerging from the local elections as the largest group. It put them back at the helm after six years of a Labour administration, which clung on with the help of the Tories in 2021, despite no longer having the most councillors.
Which party ultimately takes the reins at the town hall could depend on the alliances they are able to forge - and deals they are able to make - as much as it does the votes they can win.
This year sees the council's first all-out elections since 2004 - meaning all 63 seats are up for grabs rather than the usual one third.
Oldham
Lab 35, Con 9, Lib Dem, 9, Independent/Other 7.
More than 200 candidates are competing for residents’ votes in this year's local elections in Oldham – which sees every seat up for grabs for the first time since 2004.
Crucially, Labour will be aiming not to lose more ground to the Failsworth Independents and Conservatives, which both won seats from the ruling party in the May 2022 election.
The council leader Amanda Chadderton will also be fighting to retain her seat in Royton South, following the defeat by her leadership predecessors' Arooj Shah and Sean Fielding at the previous two local elections.
Ms Shah is standing in St Mary’s ward hoping to win back a seat on the council, after being ousted from Chadderton South ward by Tory candidate Robert Barnes last year.
Manchester
Lab 91, Green 3, Lib Dems 2.
A third of Manchester council's seats are up for grabs this year, plus an extra one in Ardwick. Marginal seats are said to be Ancoats and Beswick, Woodhouse Park and Didsbury West.
According to sources, the Lib Dems are confident in Didsbury West with the Green Party looking to up its seats in Woodhouse Park. A close race, meanwhile, is predicted in Ancoats and Beswick.
With the largest number of Labour councillors in the country, the ruling party at Manchester Town Hall will remain firmly in control of the council come May. But the local elections could leave Labour with more chinks in their armour.
The lowest turnout in Greater Manchester last May was in Fallowfield where just 15.22 pc of the electorate cast their ballot. Some students living in the transient suburb have said they don't see the point in voting in local elections.
Beswick is one place in particular where local politicians are concerned the issue of voter ID will lead to fewer people voting. And in Ancoats and Beswick, every vote counts. Last year, Labour won the council seat by just 98 votes. It followed a shock by-election loss - by a bigger margin - to the Lib Dems just a few months earlier.
The February by-election followed a win for the Greens in Woodhouse Park at the 2021 local elections – a result the party pulled off again the following May. Since then, a Labour councillor in Hulme defected to the Greens, taking the total number of opposition councillors to five – the magic number which gives them the power to propose motions and amendments in the council chamber.
Last year the Greens gained a seat in Woodhouse Park from Labour in the only change on the day, which follows their first win in the city at the 2021 election.
Tameside
Lab 47, Con 8, Green 1, Independent 1.
Labour will be confident of maintaining its iron-like grip on politics in Tameside, despite the Tories gaining two seats in last year's election, in Hyde Godley and Ashton Hurst.
Controversial issues however such as the Godley Green garden village plans in Hyde, and regeneration projects for Ashton-under-Lyne’s outdoor market and Stalybridge town centre may prove to be pivotal in some wards where campaigning is at its fiercest
When the ballot boxes open on Thursday morning, it will be the first time all 57 seats on the council will be up for election for nearly 20 years.
Theoretically, although unlikely, it gives a chance for control of the town hall – which has been run by Labour since 1979 – to swing to another party if they can drum up enough support to win a majority of seats.
Any major breaking of the Tameside red wall would require a colossal change of heart from thousands of lifelong Labour voters living in the borough, who have consistently backed the party to its current 47 seats and three sitting MPs.
Rochdale
Lab 43, Con 10, Middleton Independents 4, Lib Dem 3.
Like Tameside, Rochdale is dyed in the wool red.
Last year the party lost some seats and won others - but remained in control of Rochdale council as they have done since 2011.
But the story of the night was the inroads made by the Middleton Independents Party, which fielded 15 candidates in five wards.
They took five seats, becoming the third largest group on the council, and gave Labour a real scare. Labour leader Neil Emmott held on in West Middleton, but only by 150 votes.
Key battlegrounds this year appear to be the Middleton wards as well as Littleborough.
The fledgling party - whose ‘Think Middleton before Rochdale’ slogan tapped into a feeling the town had become the poor relation to its larger neighbour - was left celebrating an historic result.
But acrimony would soon follow when one of its new councillors immediately defected to Labour, claiming MIP was more right wing than he had realised and later branding them ‘unprofessional’. Tensions between the parties have seldom been far from the surface as the municipal year has worn on, locking horns over the town’s new masterplan and the running of its market.
Results in Rochdale are expected to be declared on Friday afternoon.
Salford
Lab 49, Con 8, Lib Dem 2, Independent 1.
Labour remain firmly in control of the town hall, despite a shock last year when the party lost three seats.
The Lib Dems beat the ruling group in the Quays and in Ordsall - traditionally a Labour heartland - after a targeted campaign, taking their total to two seats.
The Conservatives took Worsley and Westwood Park back from Labour but failed to secure a third seat in Kersal and Broughton Park, where the current councillor won after quitting the Lib Dems and standing as an independent.
The issue of voter ID could very well be highlighted in the city.
To the north of the borough, in Little Hulton, just 18.1 per cent of people eligible to vote bothered to cross a box in 2022.
Further south, in Worsley and Eccles and Monton, voter turn-out was much higher - more than 33 per cent in one case.
Anger, apathy and anxiety are the three ‘As’ which appear to define the mood of voters in Salford ahead of the local elections.
Trafford
Lab 40, Con 13, Lib Dem 5, Green 4, Independent 1.
The Conservatives will be looking to steady the ship after a disastrous election for the party last year to the same degree as Labour will be looking to increase its vote share.
The party lost their leader and four seats in the council chamber. Once a flagship Tory town hall, the party's share of the vote 'completely collapsed' on the night, according to their rivals, making Trafford a real barometer of Rishi Sunak's Premiership this time around.
Labour gained one seat - retaining overall council control - as did the Greens. The Liberal Democrats gained two. All gains were from the Conservatives.
The group's leader, Nathan Evans, lost his seat in Timperley by a decisive margin to Lib Dem Will Frass.
In the south of the borough, the Greens snatched Conservative strong-hold seat Hale Central by nearly 500 votes.
Hale Central has been Tory since its inception in 2004. Before that, it was part of the larger Hale ward. It had been blue since the 1970s.
Speaking to voters on the street, we found apathy and ID to be the main barriers to democracy in the town, making Trafford's turn-out interesting to see.
Bury
Lab 28, Con 12, Radcliffe First 8, Independent 2, Lib Dem 1.
Labour retained control of Bury Council last year, making gains from both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats while at the same time losing seats to the Radcliffe First party, but will be confident of remaining at the helm this year.
The election saw a tie in Radcliffe North and Ainsworth where two Conservatives, Jo Lancaster and Paul Cropper both polled 1,278 votes. The result was then decided by the drawing of straws, with Mr Cropper losing out.
A single seat in all the borough’s 17 wards is up for grabs.
A total of 72 candidates are standing for councillor positions in each of the wards which make up the town, with each councillor elected for a four-year term of office.
Wigan
Lab 61, Con 7, Independent Network 4, Independents 3.
The Conservatives were left feeling blue in 2022 after losing their leader in a shock upset in Orrell. Michael Winstanley was ousted from his long held seat by Labour’s Dave Wood with a margin of just 34 votes.
Just three sets changed hands - in Hindley Green, Orrell and Shevington with Lower Ground - which all went Labour to guarantee the party's town hall dominance again.
Again, turn-out should be interesting in Wigan.
Ashton, in Ashton-in-Makerfield, Wigan, saw just 5.34 per cent of eligible voters tick a ballot paper in a by-election five months ago when on December 15, Labour's Andrew Bullen came out on top of the three horse race with 294 of the 470 overall votes.
Although records cannot confirm it was the lowest turnout ever, councillors and officials at the count believed it was a grim new record, while poll aggregator Britain Elects feared it could have been ‘the lowest council by-election turnout in post-war history'.
Postal strikes and sub-zero temperatures were thought to be a large factor in the lack of voter motivation.
There are a total of 176 candidates vying for a spot in Wigan Town Hall’s council chamber but there are only 75 seats to fill. There are three seats available in every ward across the borough and Labour are the only party fielding three candidates in each ward.
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