Experts have outlined a range of options to secure Ireland’s energy supply to 2030 and a fixed LNG terminal is not in the plans.
It comes as households face unprecedented bills as winter bites and concerns linger about potential blackouts.
Short term supply issues were not included in the analysis by global consultants CEPA. They will instead be addressed through a programme of actions from the Commission for Regulation of Utilities supported by Eirgrid, Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications and industry.
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Ireland’s electricity demand is expected to “increase substantially over the next decade”.
CEPA’s energy experts were tasked with analysing how we can meet climate targets while delivering the major changes needed to the state energy system, like our 80% renewables target, phasing out coal and peat-fired generation and increasing electrification of heat and transport while maintaining energy supplies.
Ireland must legally reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 51% by 2030 compared to 2018 levels, which means major cuts to emissions across all sectors.
Consultants who carried out the Expert Review of Energy Security for DECC ruled out further commercial fossil fuel projects in Ireland as well as an onshore LNG facility, like Shannon LNG. They said it would be "likely to result in the importation of fracked gas to Ireland".
A floating LNG facility is among options on the table for gas supply emergencies, but they also favoured demand reduction, gas storage, electricity interconnection, more renewables and green hydrogen.
Friends of the Earth has commended the approach, saying: “Getting off fossil fuels the fastest way to security.”
CEPA’s analysis was largely carried out before Russia invaded Ukraine disrupting global gas supplies, but they say it still remains valid today.
The report was based on the presumption government targets like 5GW of offshore wind/80% renewables by 2030 and interconnection with France and GB by the mid-2020s are met.
They looked at five key shock scenarios on both the demand and supply sides, factoring in (1) weather events, (2) outages, (3) both combined and disruption to gas imports for (4) seven days and (5) 30 days to come up with options for the future.
CEPA said increased volumes of renewables will mean Ireland’s energy systems are “increasingly dependent on prevailing weather conditions” but that “RES generation coupled with additional battery storage can mitigate some of the more significant impacts” of some supply security scenarios.
They also said “gas-fired generators in Ireland with a capacity of more than 10 MW are required to maintain a supply of backup fuel”.
In the long term, they their list of mitigation options include:
- A strategic gas storage that will only operate when there is a material risk of demand disruptions in Ireland
- A strategic floating LNG facility that will only operate during periods of material risk of demand disruption
- A gas package that includes a combination of strategic storage, renewable gas (biomethane injection and hydrogen) and demand side response
- Additional electricity interconnection — another 700MW interconnector to France in addition to the Celtic Interconnector
- An additional 360MW of pumped storage hydroelectricity capacity
- A 450MW dedicated biomass plant
- Increased secondary fuel storage beyond the current five-day storage requirement
- Hydrogen plant conversion — converting a CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) to hydrogen
- An electricity package incuding a combination of additional capacity of batteries and demand side response
The range of options will now go to public consultation, which closes on October 28.
DECC Minister Eamon Ryan said: “As we transition to a net-zero emissions future, we must ensure our pathway of decarbonisation is underpinned by both affordability and, critically, security in how we access and use energy at all times, including times when there might be demand risk or disruption.
“It is essential that we have reliable sources of energy, including adequate gas and electricity storage, so that consumer and business confidence in our economy and in our energy infrastructure remains strong. I am asking for all interested parties to review this consultation document and technical analysis and provide us their views and evidence.”
The public responses will then be reviewed and a set of recommendations brought to Government for consideration once completed.
Friends of the Earth
Jerry Mac Evilly, Head of Policy in Friends of the Earth said: “This expert report provides a clear signal that Government is starting to finally recognise the real dangers of Ireland’s overdependence on fossil fuels, as well as the risks of locking Ireland into polluting gas if long-term infrastructure is allowed.
“The technical analysis correctly rejects risky commercial fossil fuel projects, including Shannon LNG. We now call on the Government to make the existing moratorium on commercial LNG permanent in light of this analysis.”
But he added: “There are still many uncertainties. Even temporary state-backed gas infrastructure, also shortlisted in the consultation paper, runs the risk of locking in polluting emissions if clear restrictions and decommissioning plans are not put in place at the outset. And the Government has not properly addressed how increasing gas and electricity demand from data centres runs the risk of undermining Ireland’s climate action and locking Ireland into expensive gas use.
“We also have to remember that not all parts of Government have fully woken up to the fact that we are facing an energy crisis of affordability, pollution and supply. The overall solution to these three problems, and the best way to protect households and communities in Ireland, is the same: reduce our dependence on fossil fuels as fast as possible.
“For families facing skyrocketing energy bills, the Government must start by increasing supports for energy efficiency and solar which will both enhance security and reduce bills for households.”
The public consultation and all relevant documents are available here if you would like to have your say.
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