Tory leadership frontrunner Liz Truss could give the government a double-figure bounce in the polls once she is installed in No 10, according to internal Labour analysis.
A memo drawn up by Keir Starmer’s director of strategy, Deborah Mattinson, claimed the foreign secretary could dramatically improve Conservative fortunes.
The document, dated 18 August and leaked to the Guardian, comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.
However, the research also suggests that any improvement in the government’s position could be very short-lived, with voters already concerned about aspects of Truss’s character.
“Our focus groups suggest that as voters get to know Truss better they like her less,” it says. “Serious negatives – untrustworthiness, inauthenticity, U-turns, lack of grip – are starting to cut through suggesting that any bounce may be very short-lived.”
The latest Opinium poll on Sunday gave Labour its biggest lead in months – eight points – while Starmer has surged well ahead of Truss in the past two weeks when voters are asked who would be the best prime minister.
Yet the leaked analysis suggests Labour could fall back again in coming months as new prime ministers tend to boost their parties in the polls, which then evaporates after three months in office.
“We can expect that Truss will get a bounce of at least 6% if she simply performs in line with the average, which would result in bringing polls to level pegging with Labour,” it says.
But party insiders believe she could drive a 10-point, or even 12-point, bounce as Boris Johnson was such a drag on the Conservatives’ polling in his final months in power.
“Johnson was such an anchor on the Tories and Truss is such an unknown, so it will likely be closer to 10% or 12%,” one said.
The analysis suggests that Rishi Sunak, who is trailing behind Truss, is less certain to give the Tories a big boost because his negatives are already better known to the public.
But either candidate should expect the media to have grown “bored” of criticising the Tories over the Johnson era and to welcome them with “early enthusiasm”.
Mattinson warns: “It will be even harder for us to achieve cut-through at this time, making a higher bounce still more likely.”
Bleak economic forecasts and the prospect of recession next year have prompted some speculation among Tory MPs that Truss could try to capitalise on any polling boost and announce an early election this autumn.
She could use her planned emergency budget to deliver tax cuts and announce support for struggling households, creating a short-term feelgood factor around her government.
However, calling an early election would also be a big risk for the Conservatives with voters unlikely to thank them for sending them to the polls during a cost of living crisis.
Mattinson’s analysis indicates that any bounce “may not be sustained” with voters “already noticing aspects of Liz Truss that worry them”.
It adds: “The poll bounce seems to be a triumph of hope over experience for voters – before reality kicks in. Our focus groups so far suggest that voters who know less about Truss view her more positively. But the more they see of her, the less enamoured they are.”
Labour believes that Truss’s failure to detail a big package of support for families to help with energy bills, and her remarks about British workers needing “more graft”, have damaged her.
The memo concludes: “We have also seen a negative reaction to her apparent lack of concern for ordinary working people – as opposed to the very poor – in the fuel crisis. Tax cuts as an alternative do not hit the spot. This view has been compounded by the leaked ‘grafter’ tape.”
