They might have made hard work of it but Liverpool’s 4-3 victory over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday has seen them take charge of the race for Europa League qualification.
The Reds currently sit fifth in the table on 56 points, two points above both Spurs and Aston Villa having played one game fewer. Meanwhile, they still have to welcome Unai Emery’s Villa side to Anfield on May 20.
As a result, Jurgen Klopp’s men are well-placed to qualify for next season’s Europa League as things stand, while they are also on hand to take advantage of any slip-up from Manchester United or Newcastle United in the race for top four. Seven points behind the fourth-placed Red Devils (63 points), having played a game more, and nine points off the third-placed Magpies (65 points), such a prospect admittedly looks most unlikely.
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With Manchester City taking on Man United in the FA Cup final, fifth and sixth place in the Premier League are currently looking likely to earn qualification for the Europa League group stages. Meanwhile, a seventh-place finish looks set to earn Europa Conference League qualification.
Boasting a significantly superior goal difference to Tottenham (+6) and Villa (+4), even if Liverpool (+23) slipped up in the weeks ahead to finish level on points with either side in the league table, they would finish higher as a result.
Meanwhile, in the unlikely event Man United drop enough points to finish level with the Reds, their inferior goal difference of +10 would also be enough for Liverpool to place higher than them in the Premier League table and potentially sneak into the top four.
In contrast, Newcastle’s goal difference of +34 gives them the advantage over Liverpool, even without a nine-point lead, as things stand. The Reds have scored more goals (65 - 61), however, which is the next decider to determine league position if two sides cannot be separated on points and goal difference.
Beyond that, head-to-head points is taken into consideration. Again, Klopp’s men have the advantage over all four of the aforementioned sides. They completed a league double over both Newcastle and Tottenham, while their 7-0 thrashing of Manchester United at Anfield trumps their 2-1 loss at Old Trafford.
Meanwhile, they won 3-1 away at Aston Villa on Boxing Day. With the higher number of goals as the away team next determining who finishes higher, Emery’s side would have to win 3-0 or by two goals having scored four or more to finish above Liverpool in the unlikely event they finished level on points, goal difference and overall goals scored.
Win 3-1 and we could be looking at a Premier League play-off match to decide European qualification, though at this stage that most unlikely.
But while the Reds have the advantage on each of the aforementioned teams in such circumstances, it is a different story when it comes to Brighton & Hove Albion. It doesn't actually need a far-fetched set of results for the two sides to finish the season level.
The Seagulls currently sit eighth in the table, outside the European places, on 52 points. However, they have three games in hand on Tottenham and Aston Villa, and two games in hand on Liverpool and Newcastle, and one game in hand on Manchester United.
Should they win their two games in hand over the Reds, they will leapfrog them into fifth on 58 points. Yet win one and draw the other, and both sides will be level on 56 points
Having thrashed Wolves 6-0 on Saturday, Brighton’s goal difference has been given a significant boost with it plausible they finish level with Liverpool as a result. Their GD currently stands at +21, having scored four goals less than the Reds but having also conceded two less.
So what happens if the Seagulls indeed finish level on points, goal difference and goals scored with Liverpool? Alas, no Premier League play-off here.
Brighton’s 3-3 draw at Anfield and 3-1 win over the Reds at the AMEX Stadium leaves them with the advantage. Finish level with Klopp’s men on points, goal difference and goals scored and they will place higher in the final Premier League table as a result.
If Brighton win their games in hand, they will be well-placed to qualify alongside Liverpool for next season’s Europa League. But should the two sides finish level and it’s the difference between Europa League and Europa Conference League, or Conference League and no Europe, it would be the Reds who miss out.
Therefore, with five games of their season remaining, Liverpool need to maintain their four-game winning run and six-match unbeaten run to give themselves the best possible chance of finishing above Brighton once the season comes to an end.
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