The Liverpool squad looks set for an enormous overhaul this summer. Five players are out of contract and it’s not currently clear if any of them will be retained into 2023/24 or potentially beyond.
The best asset among them – as the only man who won’t be in his thirties next season – is Naby Keita. The Guinean is the Reds’ fourth most expensive signing of all time, though hasn’t been able to deliver his best form on a consistent basis thanks to a succession of fitness injuries.
And according to Florian Plettenberg of Sky Germany, Keita is ‘on the verge’ of leaving the club at the end of his contract. Cynical Kopites might argue that a player so infrequently available barely needs replacing but Liverpool’s number eight is their sole midfielder of peak age. They will need somebody who offers a similar skillset, and ideally Jurgen Klopp will gain multiple options too.
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Over the last year, Keita has only played 1,240 minutes in league and Europe, a little shy of just 14 full matches (per FBRef). Nonetheless, the available but limited data puts him into the top 10 percent of midfielders in Europe’s big five leagues for 16 different metrics.
The group includes some very important statistics for attacking midfielders, such as non-penalty expected goals, through ball passes and touches in the opposition box. One player who holds a similar standing for these metrics (as well as 19 others) is Jude Bellingham. It’s not a scoop to state he is already coveted by Liverpool.
It’s interesting that FBRef’s scouting report lists Harvey Elliott as the most similar player to Keita at present, though two midfielders at the same club will inevitably perform many of the same actions. Away from replacements who are already at Liverpool, there are some interesting names floating about.
FBRef suggest Konrad Laimer, who will be moving to Bayern Munich but was linked with the Reds, while Smarterscout offers Mason Mount, another name currently in the Liverpool rumour mill. Whatever the truth in the stories, they suggest the Reds might have been eyeing up Keita replacements for some time.
The out of contract players are clearly the most likely to depart but there may be other members of the squad who move on too. Football Insider have reported that Liverpool will listen to offers for Joel Matip, the club’s fifth longest-serving player. His own goal set the Wolves debacle in motion and like many members of the squad his performances since the World Cup have been largely disappointing.
Assessing defenders with statistics can be tricky, with much of their best work done through reading of the game and anticipation rather than recordable on-ball actions. One thing is clear with Matip, though: he is nowhere near as dominant in the air as he once was.
Having won 72 per cent of his Premier League aerial duels across the preceding five seasons, his success rate has halved in 2022/23. The 31-year-old has also made an Opta-defined defensive error in each of his last two appearances. It may be time to replace Matip.
FBRef’s top match for the former Cameroon international is Nico Schlotterbeck, though Dortmund are unlikely to want to lose a second player to Liverpool if Bellingham treads that path. Either way, the 23-year-old is under contract for another four years, but like Matip he is great at progressing the ball up field through passes and carries.
Another Bundesliga centre-back who fits the bill only to be signed up until 2027 is RB Leipzig’s Mohamed Simakan, who they presumably bought to replace Ibrahima Konate. Perhaps Lens' Kevin Danso, who has won a Matip-esque 71 per cent of his aerial duels over the last two seasons and has strong dribbling skills is a more achievable target? Whatever the answers and for the injury problems they’ve had with the Reds, replacing Keita and Matip will not be a simple task.
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