On May 5, when voters across the country head to polling stations to cast their votes in a crucial set of local elections, those in Liverpool will stay at home.
The city will be a notable exception from this year's locals as the council continues to recover from last year's historically appalling government inspection. One of the many changes brought in after that damning assessment was a move to all out elections every four years, rather than the previous system where a third of the council seats were voted for in three of every four years.
In theory, the move to full council elections every four years is to bring stability. Inspector Max Caller said he believed some of Liverpool's political problems came from the fact that councillors and parties were almost always in election mode, with votes held so regularly. But looking ahead to those first all out votes in 2023, there is a growing feeling that more chaos and instability is on the way for the city.
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In a March interview with the ECHO, Mayor Joanne Anderson claimed the government had 'put a bomb' under the city's ruling Labour group and predicted drama ahead. She said: "All out elections, everyone out together, that political turmoil is coming." And looking ahead to the next 12 months in Liverpool's political cycle, you can understand where she is coming from.
There is so much up in the air right now in terms of the future direction of the city. Letters have now been sent to all houses in Liverpool asking people to give their thoughts on how things should be run from 2023 on wards.
While some strongly believe a referendum should have been held on whether to stick with or remove the directly elected mayor model in place since 2012, the council opted for a cheaper consultation, including the alternative leader and cabinet and committee systems.
Another impact of the Caller Report will be a radical redrawing of Liverpool's electoral map, which will have profound political, electoral and practical consequences ahead of and after next year's all out votes. Where the city is currently represented by 90 councillors representing thirty wards, the changes look set to see 85 elected members representing 71 wards. With the majority of those elected standing alone in a council seat.
Of course, we can add to this whirlwind of political issues the dramatic news from the past week that saw five councillors quit the Labour Party in a budget row and join with three former party members to form a new independent group on the council. The alliance of Alan Gibbons, Rona Heron, Alison Clarke, Joanne Calvert, Alfie Hincks, Anna Rothery, Sam Gorst and Sarah Morton have instantly leapfrogged a number of established parties to become the third largest group opposing Labour.
So what will be the impact of these huge, existential changes and challenges to Liverpool's political make-up and the running of the city council? Most insiders agree it will be profound.
Let's deal with the city ward shake-up first as this is probably the area that will have the largest effect on how next year's elections will go. In his hugely critical report into the problems at Liverpool Council in recent years, Max Caller said he believed councillors needed to be more visible and accountable to the electorate.
He suggested a key process to achieve this would be to fundamentally change the city ward map and reduce the number of residents being represented by a councillor. He said under the current system, where three members represent wards of around 15,000 people, too many councillors were able to hide away and too many voters didn't know who represented them.
Acting on the recommendations and instructions of Mr Caller and the government, the council has been consulting with the Local Government Boundary Commission and is close to finalising draft plans for a new ward map of 71 newly formed seats, which would be represented by 85 councillors - five fewer than currently.
While the plans would see a handful of wards represented by two members and - at this point in the consultation - just one three-member ward, the vast majority of the new council wards will be much smaller areas, represented by just one councillor. The electoral implications of this are huge.
Elections and winning them are of course a numbers game. How many people can you get to come out and vote for you, how many doors can you physically knock on in the campaign and what kind of margin will you need to secure victory. This will all change dramatically under the new system.
For smaller parties and independent independent candidates, the prospect of 'working' a ward of 4,100 people in the proposed new 'Wavertree Garden Suburb' will look eminently more possible than trying to take on the well resourced Labour machine in the existing Wavertree ward where 14,800 people reside.
Speaking of independents, this is where the newly formed Liverpool Community group could have a major impact. It is not yet known which of the group, if any, will stand at next year's elections but the general feeling from insiders is wherever any of them do stand, it will be bad for Labour.
In a smaller council ward of two to four thousand people, a prominent independent, left-wing figure is likely to at the very least split Labour's vote and at the most potentially take the seat themselves. The former will be good news for the Liberal Democrats and other opposition parties, both actions could see the ruling party lose seats.
When asked to look ahead to next year's elections, one Labour source told me they look set to be the most difficult set of votes the Liverpool Labour group has faced in a generation. This is quite something when you consider last year's elections came just weeks after the ruling party was heavily implicated in the worst council inspection report of all time.
Predictions for next year differ greatly depending on who you speak to, but most agree Labour are likely to lose a bunch of seats. The party currently has 60 of 90 positions on the council, they could drop anywhere between five and 20 depending on a wide range of factors.
The recent council by-elections, held under the current electoral system and ward map, will have buoyed opposition groups. The Liberal Democrats. In the northern ward of Warbreck, an impenetrable Labour fortress since 2007, the Liberal Democrats came within 40 votes of winning on a remarkable 38% swing. Labour won more comfortably in nearby Everton on the same night, but still saw a 25% swing against them as the Greens performed admirably to come second.
Remember these results, which were really quite bad for Labour, came before the splitting rebels confirmed their new grouping and ahead of the huge shake-up of wards boundaries. As one source said, 'if a left wing independent had stood in that vote, the Lib Dems would have taken it', so you can imagine the impact a well known local figure like Alan Gibbons may have on a much smaller and tighter seat battle if he stands next year.
Stuart Wilks-Heeg, a professor of politics at the University of Liverpool said: "The redrawing of Liverpool’s electoral map is radical. While there will only be a very small reduction in the total number of councillors, the wards they will represent will be very different from the current ones.
"While these are big changes, they won’t make much difference to Liverpool’s political balance on their own. All other things being equal, Labour could expect to return to power with a comfortable majority, because it has been so completely dominant across huge swathes of the city, notably the north end, the city centre and the waterfront.
"However, all other things are definitely not equal. Recent by-elections demonstrated that an electoral backlash against local cuts should be a serious concern for Labour. In this context, all-out council elections using new ward boundaries create the potential to magnify changes in voting behaviour and could result in significant Labour losses."
Speaking about how the ex-Labour rebel grouping could impact the situation, Professor Wilks-Heeg added: "In truth, Liverpool’s Labour Party should be worried. Labour’s dominance in Liverpool peaked in 2015 and opposition parties have chipped away at its vast majority since then. Having governed Liverpool for more than a decade, Labour has had to preside over sweeping cuts to local services in the face of huge reductions in central government grants. The local party succeeded in managing this almost impossible task, but there was always going to be a local backlash at some point. That time has now come and it is hugely significant that former Labour councillors are leading the charge.
This is music to the ears of veteran Lib Dem leader Richard Kemp, who said: "Wherever the rebels choose to stand, that's good for us." He predicts his 11-strong council team could more than double in size after next year's votes.
But the Lib Dems are not without their own issues. That number of 11 councillors was 12 at the start of the past week but was reduced by one as Cllr Alan Tormey crossed the council chamber to join Steve Radford's Liberal group. It was a blow for Cllr Kemp's opposition group in a week he would have otherwise been enjoying greatly.
While the Lib Dems are the lead opposition on the council, it's fair to say the city hasn't exactly coalesced firmly behind one solid alternative to Labour. The Liberals, boosted by their acquisition this week, still remain remarkably strong in Tuebrook and the Greens will work hard to retain their St Michaels base. This fragmented, patchwork opposition picture could help Labour again.
But again Professor Wilks-Heeg believes this is where the new independent group of ex-Labour members could play a big role. He said: "Previously, no opposition party looked able to capitalise on local controversies, whether about cuts or corruption. The Lib Dems, Liberals and Greens all have very concentrated areas of electoral support.
"Meanwhile, with the north end of the city solidly red, it was hard to see how anyone could seriously challenge Labour. The Liverpool Community Independents group drives a wedge into Labour’s dominance of the north end. They won’t be around for long, groups like this rarely survive for more than a few years in local politics. But their short-term impact on Liverpool’s politics could be substantial. And the impact on Labour locally could be all the more painful for originating from inside the party."
The final draft for the new ward map proposals is currently being consulted on, most think it is unlikely to change too much from its current form. The consultation runs until June 8, after which a final submission will be presented to the council and then placed before Parliament. In a couple of months the city and its political parties should know where they stand in terms of fighting next year's elections.
And as if this wasn't enough political upheaval, the autumn should also see the conclusion of the council's governance model consultation, with the council set to formally approve how the city will be run from 2023 onwards. Most insiders firmly believe that the current system of directly electing a mayor will be removed and replaced - with a return to the leader and cabinet model most likely.
This in itself brings with it plenty more scope for political drama and takes us back to Mayor Anderson's comments about a 'bomb' being put under the nutritiously fractious city Labour group. With the party already being forced to find 85 individual candidates ahead of the next election, a potential leadership battle will only add to the chaos. It is believed some Labour councillors are already on manoeuvres.
Professor Wilks-Heeg said: "Only a small minority of voters pay much attention to which model of governance their council is operating and it’s highly unlikely that the debate about this will have much direct impact on the result. However, the likely move away from the mayoral model could have some important indirect effects.
"The mayoral system is very much associated with Labour’s running of the city over the last decade or more and, ultimately, with the damning conclusions reached by the Caller report in 2021. Local opposition parties were always highly critical of the mayoral system, which also became increasingly controversial within the ruling Labour group.
"It’s understandable that Labour is now keen to dispense with it and move forward with a model of governance that shares power to a greater extent. However, given the wider challenges being faced by Liverpool Labour, the party’s association with the mayoral model could prove hard for it to shake off. In the context of highly competitive all-out elections in 2023 and ongoing controversy about council cuts, the issue could easily turn toxic for Labour."
If the mayoralty does go, it seems increasingly likely that the current incumbent may go with it. Joanne Anderson, who stepped in to the role following the arrest of her predecessor last year, has always said she saw her position as a temporary, stabilising one. She wouldn't be directly drawn on her own political future when we asked her in March, but its thought she doesn't harbour long-term political ambitions.
It may seem slightly strange to be focussing on Liverpool's next elections when, unlike so many councils around the country preparing for polls in a couple of weeks, they won't actually take place until 2023. But the processes, debates and dramatic changes currently underway in the city right now will have profound effects on how Liverpool will be run for decades to come. As has so often been the case throughout history, Liverpool's political world remains unstable, unpredictable and utterly fascinating.
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