Liverpool could sign new La Liga sensation from under…

Liverpool could sign new La Liga sensation from under the nose of Manchester City

There is a danger inherent into reading too much into a small sample size, be that in football or any walk of life. Whatever a player or club is doing in the first few matches of a new season, for good or bad, may not be representative of what they are capable in the long term.

If that sounds like terms and conditions or a warning in the small print, that’s because it is. Many transfers have been made on the back of a brief hot streak (especially when it occurs in an international tournament) and that burst of form never presents itself with the new team.

Liverpool are being linked with a move for Villarreal’s Alejandro ‘Alex’ Baena, and according to Spanish outlet Sport the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City are interested in signing him too. The 21-year-old has made an excellent start to 2022/23 but is he the real deal?

It’s certainly fair to ask the question. Baena has scored three La Liga goals this term from chances collectively valued at 1.1 expected by Statsbomb. This is thanks mainly to converting the two shots he had in a 3-0 win over Real Valladolid, both of which came from at least 19 yards from goal.

Bear in mind that Trent Alexander-Arnold was the only Liverpool player to score twice from outside the box in the league in the whole of last season. Baena matched that in nine minutes, which won’t be repeatable. Nonetheless, he is showing an ability to finish some unlikely chances, as he has also demonstrated in the Europa Conference League.

This productivity has put him among the top players in Spain for all the key attacking metrics per 90 minutes: shots, attempts on target, non-penalty expected goals, and so on. However, it’s his performance for a couple of other match actions which hint at his strengths. He displayed some of them in the second tier while on loan with Girona last season too, which suggests the decent numbers are here to stay.

For instance, he has a 100 per cent dribble success rate this season, though he has only attempted six to date. But that’s fair enough when he has only had a shade over two matches-worth of game time – only 32 players with at least as many minutes in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain have completed more dribbles per 90 minutes this season. His rate of 2.7 is up on the 2.4 he averaged in the 2021/22 Segunda Division too.

Similarly, even though the Villarreal youngster has only completed two through balls this term, that’s enough for a share of fifth place in La Liga in these early weeks of the campaign. While that doesn’t mean much now, it helps explain how he was able to create 12 clear-cut chances last season, the joint-eighth most in the Spanish second tier (per SofaScore). It’s obviously a lower level of football there but only five players (including Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah) topped that total in the Premier League.

The limited data available also suggests the under-21 international is fine with the defensive side of the game. He averaged 0.9 final third possession regains per 90 last season (via FotMob). While not matching the frankly ridiculous 1.8 posted by Roberto Firmino, Baena did equal the figures of Diogo Jota and Salah. He may even be able to cover for both players too, having played all across a front three as well as in attacking midfield already in his brief career.

With two years remaining on his contract at the end of this season, the time could be right next summer for Liverpool to make a move. The fact he has a link with City, as the same people own both themselves and Girona, means they likely have an edge should they be interested. Perhaps his hot start to 2022/23 will disappear into the ether too, but Baena is certainly worth filing in the ‘one to watch’ category in the meantime.

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