Liverpool had very few problems with the weaker Premier League teams in 2021/22. They won 21 of their 22 matches against the clubs who finished below ninth, drawing the other (at Brentford).
Extend the sample to the 16 teams who missed out on Champions League qualification, and they still only dropped points on four occasions. But in a mini league of the sides who finished in the top four, the Reds were bottom. They might not have lost to Manchester City, Chelsea or Tottenham but neither did they beat any of them.
Goals were not especially a problem. Liverpool scored in every match and led at least once against all three teams. But across the six games against the rest of the top four, they had a total of 27 shots after the scoreline reached what became the full-time result. If any one of them had gone in, Jurgen Klopp’s side might well have been champions.
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It’s all ifs and buts, of course, and ultimately academic. The Reds had the second-best record against the same teams in 2018/19 (who again took the Champions League spots) and missed out on the title by a point in that campaign too.
However, what can’t help but hurt is the fact that their two best chances among the aforementioned 27 efforts both occurred against City. Fabinho had a late shot blocked by Rodri in the 2-2 draw at Anfield, then Diogo Jota saw a clear-cut chance saved in the return fixture at the Etihad. Either could have proved a decisive goal.
Until we know how quickly Darwin Nunez settles in England, there will be a degree of extra pressure upon Jota to deliver with Sadio Mane having left the club. Liverpool’s first 11 league fixtures for 2022/23 include meetings with four of last seasons top six and a derby at Goodison Park. Fortunately for Klopp, his Portuguese forward has shown he can deliver in big games, and to an arguably greater extent than any striker in the modern history of the club.
The standard of all teams fluctuates over time. As brilliant as Mohamed Salah’s hattrick at Old Trafford clearly was, Manchester United were very obviously a shadow of their best sides last season. This is where the Elo rating system becomes useful, as it enables us to compare clubs across history to see how they fare against their predecessors.
Liverpool are currently rated as the best team in Europe, and in February 2020 their Elo score of 2,085 made them the fourth greatest side ever. Only Barcelona (in 2012), Bayern Munich and Real Madrid (both in 2014) have recorded higher scores.
We can also use this data to assess the standard of teams that players have appeared or scored against, and LFCHistory contributor Graeme Riley has recently done this. His research shows that the Liverpool forward with the highest average opposition Elo rating for their goals (in league and Europe) is Jota.
The former Wolves man is second only to Martin Skrtel in the standings, though the former has of course scored more goals. From the day Jota opened his Liverpool account against Arsenal, far and away his favourite opponent, he has often found the net in big games.
His Champions League haul includes a hat-trick against Atalanta and a strike against the then defending La Liga champions, Atletico Madrid. Jota scored at Old Trafford in each of the last two campaigns and grabbed an equaliser across town against City in April. Add in several goals against the likes of Leicester, West Ham and Wolves, among the best of the rest outside the established big six, and Liverpool’s number 20 has amassed plenty of strikes against well-rated sides.
The reality is that Mane or Salah couldn’t hope to match Jota’s Elo record. A player can’t score well over 100 goals for a team without rattling in plenty against the lesser clubs, which then diminishes the average standard of side they’ve struck against. But Jota has shown he can produce against top teams and he may need to maintain that next season if Liverpool are to finish top of the Premier League.
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